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The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By | November 17, 2003

      Week of Nov. 7 – 13, 2003
      Percentage Change
      Symbol
      Nov. 13 Price
      One Week
      One Month
      Three Month
      Year to Date
      Operators
      APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
      2.38
      (12.2)
      (3.6)
      (12.5)
      38.4
      ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
      17.40
      (0.7)
      12.3
      2.4
      52.8
      BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
      47.33
      6.4
      8.9
      3.8
      18.1
      ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
      33.39
      (8.6)
      (17.6)
      (2.6)
      50.0
      HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
      15.83
      (3.8)
      2.9
      16.0
      47.9
      LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
      0.38
      4.1
      (20.8)
      74.7
      (91.2)
      NEWS CORP NWS
      35.57
      (4.2)
      3.0
      9.1
      35.5
      NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
      6.89
      5.2
      19.8
      18.2
      66.0
      PANAMSAT SPOT
      20.86
      (0.9)
      29.9
      31.4
      42.5
      PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
      0.07
      (62.2)
      (70.8)
      (53.3)
      PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
      20.43
      18.5
      40.9
      (2.2)
      56.0
      SES GLOBAL SESF.LU
      7.80
      (2.7)
      11.1
      25.8
      21.9
      SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
      2.24
      (4.7)
      (1.8)
      34.1
      250.0
      XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
      23.57
      8.6
      23.3
      84.1
      776.2
      Operators’ Average
      100.00
      (4.1)
      2.7
      20.2
      93.6
      Manufacturers
      ANDREW ANDW
      12.57
      (6.8)
      (7.1)
      25.1
      22.3
      BALL BLL
      55.20
      (1.7)
      (2.7)
      12.2
      7.8
      BOEING BA
      39.90
      2.6
      7.0
      23.2
      20.9
      COM DEV INTL *CDV
      3.05
      (2.9)
      22.0
      91.8
      208.1
      EMS TECHNOLOGIES ELMG
      21.32
      0.8
      12.3
      24.6
      36.9
      GARMIN GRMN
      51.08
      (0.5)
      21.0
      35.0
      74.3
      GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
      5.26
      11.4
      12.4
      (32.6)
      GLOBECOM GCOM
      5.60
      7.7
      24.4
      51.4
      49.3
      HARRIS HRS
      37.75
      (1.4)
      5.5
      24.3
      43.5
      HONEYWELL HON
      30.21
      (0.8)
      5.0
      8.2
      25.9
      KVH KVHI
      30.55
      (0.6)
      6.9
      38.7
      255.2
      LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
      45.82
      (1.0)
      (1.7)
      (9.1)
      (20.7)
      LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
      3.15
      (3.4)
      32.4
      81.0
      150.0
      MOTOROLA MOT
      13.31
      (4.6)
      (4.0)
      43.6
      53.9
      NERA NERAY
      2.04
      (1.1)
      (9.3)
      (2.7)
      88.6
      ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
      9.39
      (2.3)
      (2.5)
      13.1
      122.5
      QUALCOMM QCOM
      47.70
      2.2
      6.2
      26.1
      31.1
      RAYTHEON RTN
      28.05
      4.2
      1.3
      (8.7)
      (8.8)
      ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
      26.85
      (4.0)
      1.5
      4.6
      15.4
      SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
      29.01
      (2.8)
      (18.5)
      (2.8)
      144.6
      SKY FRAMES SKYU
      0.53
      (41.1)
      (54.7)
      (55.8)
      (93.4)
      TITAN TTN
      21.17
      (0.3)
      0.4
      35.6
      103.6
      TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
      28.51
      (2.8)
      15.4
      10.7
      128.3
      VIASAT VSAT
      21.45
      0.8
      1.8
      45.9
      85.9
      Manufacturers’ Average
      100.00
      (2.0)
      2.6
      22.0
      63.0
      Nasdaq Composite Index
      Nasdaq comp
      1,967.35
      (0.5)
      1.7
      16.6
      47.3
      SP 500 sp50
      1,058.41
      0.0
      1.2
      7.6
      20.3
      SN Stock Price Average
      100.00
      (2.8)
      2.6
      21.3
      74.3

      Wall Street Analysis

      By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities

      EchoStar Communications [Nasdaq: DISH] disappointed investors last week with third quarter results that sent its shares down 13 percent on the same day as the company’s announcement. More than half of the drop came after a conference call with management in which Chairman and CEO Charlie Ergen offered mea culpas and a downcast assessment of the quarter, even though the numbers themselves were not that bad.

      EchoStar’s increase in churn during the third quarter stood out the most. Churn rose to 1.71 percent from the second quarter’s 1.65 percent, despite management’s goal of cutting churn. However, EchoStar tends to incur seasonal churn every third quarter, due to certain subscribers opting out of the DISH service to subscribe to DirecTV’s NFL Sunday Ticket package. For example, churn rose in 2002 from 1.58 percent during the second quarter to 1.76 percent in the third quarter, then fell back to 1.51 percent in the fourth quarter. In 2001, third quarter churn increased to 1.75 percent, then fell back down. Ergen accepted the blame for the latest rise in churn, but he did not provide the historical context to put the rise in perspective.

      Management also partly blamed a dearth of high-definition (HD) programming for its weak third quarter results. It is true that EchoStar’s new 811 HD receiver with its SuperDish capability will not be out until Nov. 15. However, EchoStar customer service representatives confirmed to us that the 6000 series HD receiver, which does require two DISH 500 antennas, has been available through retailers for one to two months. Ergen only mentioned the production delays of the new HD products, while remaining silent about the availability of existing HD receivers.

      Many have speculated that it could be in EchoStar’s interest to have a lower stock price right now. It would certainly make the company’s planned stock buyback less costly. Regardless, we think the sell-off of EchoStar’s shares is overdone. We expect the shares to bounce back in future quarters.

      Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at . Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.

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