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The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By Staff Writer | October 6, 2003

      Week of Sept. 26 – Oct. 2, 2003
      Percentage Change
      Symbol
      Oct. 2 Price
      One Week
      One Month
      Three Month
      Year to Date
      Operators
      APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
      1.92
      (17.2)
      (30.4)
      (18.6)
      11.6
      ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
      14.76
      (0.3)
      (5.7)
      (8.6)
      29.6
      BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
      41.65
      (2.2)
      (2.0)
      (5.8)
      4.0
      ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
      39.07
      (0.5)
      5.5
      12.8
      75.5
      HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
      14.30
      (0.7)
      (4.3)
      9.5
      33.6
      LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
      0.26
      24.3
      24.3
      (90.6)
      (93.9)
      NEWS CORP NWS
      33.25
      (1.8)
      (3.2)
      9.2
      26.7
      NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
      5.72
      8.1
      0.0
      2.5
      37.8
      PANAMSAT SPOT
      14.97
      4.5
      (5.3)
      (20.0)
      2.3
      PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
      0.00
      (99.9)
      (99.9)
      (99.9)
      (99.9)
      PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
      14.65
      (7.0)
      (24.0)
      (50.6)
      11.8
      rSTAR CORP RSTRC
      0.61
      (4.5)
      (23.6)
      15.3
      154.6
      SES GLOBAL SESF.LU
      6.52
      (0.3)
      (4.8)
      19.6
      1.9
      SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
      1.90
      (2.1)
      13.3
      11.8
      196.9
      XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
      15.96
      1.4
      16.5
      28.7
      493.3
      Operators’ Average
      100.00
      (6.5)
      (9.6)
      (12.3)
      59.0
      Manufacturers
      ANDREW ANDW
      12.71
      (0.4)
      2.7
      36.1
      23.6
      BALL BLL
      55.45
      1.7
      5.0
      23.6
      8.3
      BOEING BA
      35.28
      3.2
      (5.6)
      1.8
      6.9
      COM DEV INTL CDV.TO
      2.28
      (0.9)
      34.1
      79.5
      130.3
      EMS TECHNOLOGIES ELMG
      16.99
      (1.6)
      (3.0)
      26.8
      9.1
      GARMEN LTD. GRMN
      42.60
      (5.6)
      6.6
      9.6
      45.4
      GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
      4.71
      (1.9)
      5.1
      (3.9)
      (39.6)
      GLOBECOM GCOM
      4.05
      8.3
      (1.0)
      21.6
      8.0
      HARRIS HRS
      35.90
      4.6
      8.1
      17.1
      36.5
      HONEYWELL HON
      26.60
      (0.3)
      (8.2)
      (1.5)
      10.8
      KVH KVHI
      26.21
      (8.9)
      (5.6)
      15.9
      204.8
      LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
      46.04
      2.1
      (10.1)
      (5.0)
      (20.3)
      LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
      2.14
      (2.7)
      13.2
      5.9
      69.8
      MOTOROLA MOT
      12.24
      (0.2)
      14.1
      32.5
      41.5
      NERA NERAY
      2.03
      (7.2)
      (3.9)
      49.9
      87.0
      ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
      9.62
      1.2
      9.7
      29.6
      128.0
      QUALCOMM QCOM
      43.10
      (1.0)
      4.3
      19.6
      18.4
      RAYTHEON RTN
      28.09
      (2.8)
      (12.4)
      (15.5)
      (8.7)
      ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
      25.59
      1.9
      (5.4)
      1.5
      10.0
      SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
      30.90
      (3.7)
      (9.1)
      26.2
      160.5
      SKY FRAMES SKYU
      1.05
      (19.2)
      16.7
      (25.0)
      (86.9)
      STM WIRELESS STMI
      0.03
      2,900.0
      900.0
      500.0
      (85.0)
      TITAN TTN
      20.87
      0.7
      29.8
      103.4
      100.7
      TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
      23.68
      (5.5)
      (11.4)
      3.9
      89.6
      VIASAT VSAT
      18.53
      4.0
      16.9
      34.7
      60.6
      Manufacturers’ Average
      100.00
      114.6
      39.6
      39.5
      40.4
      Nasdaq Composite Index COMP
      1,836.19
      (0.4)
      1.4
      12.0
      37.5
      S & P 500 SP50
      1,020.24
      1.1
      1.2
      3.9
      16.0
      SN Stock Price Average
      100.00
      69.2
      21.2
      20.1
      47.4

      Wall Street Analysis

      By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities

      Whoever doubted that satellite radio would take off? XM Satellite Radio [Nasdaq: XMSR] announced last week 237,395 net new subscribers for the third quarter. That number topped our 230,000 forecast and beat the consensus outlook from industry analysts. The company’s subscriber total of 929,648 on Sept. 30 positions it to achieve its guidance of 1.2 million subscribers by year-end and puts it closer to hitting our projection of 1.285 million subscribers.

      We continue to expect XM’s stock to trade strongly through the end of the year due to holiday spending in the aftermarket, launch of its “Roadie” product and ramp-up of OEM sales through General Motors [NYSE: GM] and Honda [NYSE: HMC].

      The question now becomes – How soon will XM reach 1 million subscribers? We expect the company to pass the mark around Halloween but it may not announce the milestone until November.

      Meanwhile, Sirius Satellite Radio [Nasdaq: SIRI] attained flat net new subscriber growth of 37,127 during the second quarter. We look for net new subscribers to pick up, reaching 80,000 in the third quarter. That improvement would bring Sirius’ subscriber count to 185,186 after six quarters of nationwide operations. By comparison, XM reached a similar point after three quarters. XM achieved this more rapid growth even before the launch of its plug-and-play SkyFi unit in the fourth quarter of 2002. We agree with Sirius management that the subscriber gap between the two companies will widen before it narrows, given the delay of Sirius’ OEM partners Ford [NYSE: F] and DaimlerChrysler [NYSE: DCX] in moving to a factory install program for Sirius radios similar to GM’s factory installs for XM. Still, the valuations of the two companies reflect their relative progress – Sirius’ current enterprise value totals about 50 percent of XM’s. That valuation gap is broadly consistent with Sirius’ subscriber base, which we project to be 44 percent of XM’s at the end of the third quarter.

      Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at [email protected]. Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation.

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