The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By | January 5, 2004 | Feature

Week of Dec. 26 – Jan. 1, 2003
Percentage Change
Symbol
Dec. 31 Price
One Week
One Month
Three Month
Year to Date
Operators
APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
2.49
6.0
(5.0)
19.7
44.8
ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
19.60
2.1
14.0
31.1
72.1
BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
51.19
0.8
9.2
24.2
27.8
ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
34.29
1.0
(0.5)
(10.5)
54.0
HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
16.62
1.3
0.1
16.1
55.3
LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
0.31
(6.1)
(6.1)
59.0
(92.8)
NEWS CORP NWS
36.92
6.1
7.8
12.6
40.6
NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
7.16
5.0
6.1
24.3
72.5
PANAMSAT SPOT
21.86
4.6
(1.0)
51.0
49.3
PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
0.05
(71.4)
(70.6)
(66.7)
PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
28.45
(3.9)
42.3
90.9
117.2
SES GLOBAL SESF.LU
8.00
(1.6)
0.5
20.3
25.0
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
3.31
37.9
59.1
81.9
417.2
XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
26.44
10.8
6.3
70.6
882.9
Operators’ Average
100.00
4.6
4.4
30.0
121.4
Manufacturers
ANDREW ANDW
11.89
5.7
1.0
(1.6)
15.7
BALL BLL
59.43
0.8
6.2
10.1
16.1
BOEING BA
42.48
2.7
10.7
23.7
28.8
COM DEV INTL *CDV
2.88
(3.4)
(12.7)
25.8
190.9
EMS TECHNOLOGIES ELMG
20.36
5.9
(4.2)
19.9
30.8
GARMIN GRMN
54.89
1.7
(2.0)
31.1
87.3
GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
4.91
(0.8)
(1.0)
9.8
(37.1)
GLOBECOM GCOM
4.58
(8.0)
(34.6)
16.5
22.1
HARRIS HRS
38.29
1.8
(1.2)
7.0
45.6
HONEYWELL HON
33.35
1.9
12.3
26.6
39.0
KVH KVHI
27.50
3.9
(12.9)
8.8
219.8
LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
51.08
0.8
11.2
10.7
(11.5)
LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
2.89
2.1
(9.7)
33.8
129.4
MOTOROLA MOT
14.26
4.2
1.6
19.3
64.9
NERA NERAY
2.07
3.8
(2.4)
7.6
91.5
ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
12.05
(1.7)
31.4
29.8
185.5
QUALCOMM QCOM
54.39
2.9
22.1
30.5
49.5
RAYTHEON RTN
30.14
0.6
8.8
7.6
(2.0)
ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
29.88
1.6
11.1
18.3
28.5
SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
27.58
(0.0)
(4.5)
(11.5)
132.5
SKY FRAMES SKYU
0.10
(90.9)
(98.8)
TITAN TTN
21.81
0.0
2.2
4.7
109.7
TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
37.02
1.7
22.1
60.6
196.4
VIASAT VSAT
19.27
1.3
(9.4)
8.0
67.0
Manufacturers’ Average
100.00
1.2
1.9
12.8
66.7
Nasdaq Composite Index
Nasdaq comp
2,020.46
2.6
3.1
13.1
51.3
SP 500 sp50
1,118.36
2.2
5.7
12.3
27.1
SN Stock Price Average
100.00
2.5
2.8
19.1
86.9

Wall Street Analysis

By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities

The stock price of Sirius Satellite Radio [NYSE: SIRI] rose 77 percent in the last 10 trading days on large volume. While we see multiple positive data points, including the possibility of exceptional fourth quarter performance, and we believe Sirius has long-term upside, we do not believe recent events justify the rise. The increase may be due to investors chasing benchmarks driven by the Sirius stock price rally. We have seen potential in other positive data points, including the company’s recent National Football League (NFL) deal, an agreement to spur vehicle installations with BMW, a potential vehicle installation contract with Toyota [NYSE: TM], and positive news expected to be released at this week’s Consumer Electronics show in Las Vegas.

Many observers criticized Sirius for spending $220 million, and issuing warrants, for rights to NFL programming for the next seven years. However, we view this deal positively. Roughly 495,000 incremental subscribers would justify the deal.

On the automobile manufacturers’ front, Sirius announced that BMW would make its units available on a factory-installed basis for the car builder’s 5 series vehicles. This development is a positive sign that BMW is moving toward factory installs, but the announcement is not momentous by itself. Sirius was previously available on this model as a dealer-installed option. In 2002, the BMW 5 series accounted for only 40,842 vehicles out of the 16 million vehicles sold in the United States industry-wide.

To date, Toyota has worked only with XM Satellite Radio [Nasdaq: XMSR]. Three Toyota vehicles – the Camry Solara Coupe, the Scion and the Lexus ES 430 – now offer XM on a dealer-install basis. Since Toyota’s relationship with XM is non-exclusive, we see the potential for Sirius to announce a Toyota deal as well. In fact, Sirius management is in negotiations with Toyota. We expect a non-exclusive, dealer-install arrangement, similar to the Nissan/Infiniti deal. Toyota holds 11 percent of the U.S. new car market and represents an important Sirius partner. If Toyota went exclusively with Sirius, it would swing the tables in its favor.

Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at tom.watts@sgcowen.com . Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.

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