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The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By Staff Writer | December 15, 2003

      Week of Dec. 4 – 11, 2003
      Percentage Change
      Symbol
      Dec. 11
      Price
      One
      Week
      One
      Month
      Three
      Month
      Year to
      Date
      Operators
      APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
      2.59
      1.2
      (1.9)
      8.8
      50.6
      ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
      17.80
      2.6
      0.6
      9.3
      56.3
      BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
      47.35
      1.0
      5.6
      13.9
      18.2
      ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
      31.55
      (4.0)
      (14.3)
      (13.6)
      41.7
      HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
      15.73
      (4.1)
      (5.1)
      10.6
      47.0
      LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
      0.35
      16.3
      (7.9)
      55.6
      (91.9)
      NEWS CORP NWS
      34.42
      0.4
      (7.0)
      1.7
      31.1
      NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
      7.00
      1.0
      2.9
      26.8
      68.7
      PANAMSAT SPOT
      22.63
      3.2
      7.4
      49.9
      54.6
      PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
      0.17
      1,600.0
      142.9
      112.5
      13.3
      PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
      18.69
      (1.6)
      (15.0)
      18.1
      42.7
      SES GLOBAL SESF.LU
      7.94
      (1.2)
      0.4
      28.5
      24.1
      SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
      2.17
      2.8
      (1.9)
      26.8
      238.9
      XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
      23.81
      (3.6)
      2.9
      52.9
      785.1
      Operators’ Average  
      100.00
      115.3
      7.8
      28.7
      98.6
      Manufacturers
      ANDREW ANDW
      10.77
      (5.9)
      (16.1)
      (17.2)
      4.8
      BALL BLL
      57.94
      1.1
      4.5
      12.7
      13.2
      BOEING BA
      39.53
      2.6
      1.8
      11.0
      19.8
      COM DEV INTL *CDV
      3.15
      (1.6)
      8.6
      60.7
      218.2
      EMS TECHNOLOGIES ELMG
      20.95
      (1.2)
      1.3
      18.6
      34.6
      GARMIN GRMN
      53.93
      (1.8)
      7.5
      26.2
      84.1
      GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
      4.72
      (3.7)
      (3.7)
      (0.4)
      (39.5)
      GLOBECOM GCOM
      5.98
      (9.7)
      8.7
      31.4
      59.5
      HARRIS HRS
      38.43
      0.1
      2.9
      12.7
      46.1
      HONEYWELL HON
      30.83
      4.0
      3.5
      9.8
      28.5
      KVH KVHI
      29.51
      (4.5)
      2.5
      1.9
      243.1
      LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
      48.87
      5.1
      7.0
      (4.6)
      (15.4)
      LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
      2.93
      (3.9)
      (11.5)
      42.2
      132.5
      MOTOROLA MOT
      12.98
      (5.0)
      (3.7)
      21.4
      50.1
      NERA NERAY
      2.17
      (0.5)
      7.4
      (6.9)
      99.9
      ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
      11.32
      15.0
      19.5
      21.1
      168.2
      QUALCOMM QCOM
      50.29
      13.1
      7.7
      23.8
      38.2
      RAYTHEON RTN
      28.77
      1.9
      8.0
      (9.8)
      (6.4)
      ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
      27.07
      0.9
      (2.0)
      3.0
      16.4
      SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
      27.16
      (2.7)
      (6.2)
      (19.8)
      129.0
      SKY FRAMES SKYU
      0.35
      250.0
      (53.3)
      (72.0)
      (95.6)
      TITAN TTN
      21.69
      1.2
      2.9
      21.0
      108.6
      TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
      30.35
      (0.8)
      7.1
      14.1
      143.0
      VIASAT VSAT
      19.05
      (9.6)
      (13.3)
      17.1
      65.1
      Manufacturers’ Average  
      100.00
      10.2
      (0.4)
      9.1
      64.4
      Nasdaq Composite Index
      Nasdaq comp
      1,942.32
      (0.9)
      0.0
      6.5
      45.4
      SP 500 sp50
      1,071.22
      0.6
      2.3
      6.0
      21.8
      SN Stock Price Average
      100.00
      48.9
      2.6
      16.3
      77.0

       

      Wall Street Analysis

      By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities

      Sirius Satellite Radio [NYSE: SIRI] last week attained its 200,000 subscriber goal and met its corporate year-end goal of “more than 200,000.” That mark was lowered in the third quarter from 300,000, but it is still a significant milestone. The recently introduced Sirius boom box product may have lifted holiday sales in the aftermarket channel, although supplies are limited. Rival XM Satellite Radio’s [Nasdaq: XMSR] boom box product represented a majority of holiday sales last year.

      The 200,000 mark, up from 149,612 at the end of the third quarter, implies a weekly net add rate of 5,038 subscribers for the 10 weeks since the end of the third quarter. If Sirius doubles that rate during the holiday selling season, it would end the year at 230,000 subscribers and beat our conservative estimate of 213,000.

      Sirius still needs to accelerate subscriber growth sharply to reach the 2 million subscriber mark necessary for EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization] and cash flow breakeven. The $450 million in cash on hand at the end of the third quarter, plus the $150 million raised in a recent equity offering, should more than fund the company to breakeven, according to our projections, if subscriber additions stay on track. Stepped-up activity from Sirius’ original equipment manufacturing (OEM) partners in 2004 should provide the necessary acceleration. During 2004, the company expects to have factory-install programs in place for 47 vehicle models representing 2.8 million vehicles.

      The main risk to Sirius is a slowdown of subscriber growth due to domination of the sector by XM. While XM has a large lead over Sirius with a projected year-end 2003 subscriber count of 1.3 million, Sirius is still accelerating and has the necessary financial staying power. We look for OEM sales to speed up and become the next catalyst for Sirius’ stock.

      Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at [email protected]. Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.

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