The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By | December 15, 2003 | Feature

Week of Dec. 4 – 11, 2003
Percentage Change
Symbol
Dec. 11
Price
One
Week
One
Month
Three
Month
Year to
Date
Operators
APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
2.59
1.2
(1.9)
8.8
50.6
ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
17.80
2.6
0.6
9.3
56.3
BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
47.35
1.0
5.6
13.9
18.2
ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
31.55
(4.0)
(14.3)
(13.6)
41.7
HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
15.73
(4.1)
(5.1)
10.6
47.0
LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
0.35
16.3
(7.9)
55.6
(91.9)
NEWS CORP NWS
34.42
0.4
(7.0)
1.7
31.1
NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
7.00
1.0
2.9
26.8
68.7
PANAMSAT SPOT
22.63
3.2
7.4
49.9
54.6
PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
0.17
1,600.0
142.9
112.5
13.3
PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
18.69
(1.6)
(15.0)
18.1
42.7
SES GLOBAL SESF.LU
7.94
(1.2)
0.4
28.5
24.1
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
2.17
2.8
(1.9)
26.8
238.9
XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
23.81
(3.6)
2.9
52.9
785.1
Operators’ Average  
100.00
115.3
7.8
28.7
98.6
Manufacturers
ANDREW ANDW
10.77
(5.9)
(16.1)
(17.2)
4.8
BALL BLL
57.94
1.1
4.5
12.7
13.2
BOEING BA
39.53
2.6
1.8
11.0
19.8
COM DEV INTL *CDV
3.15
(1.6)
8.6
60.7
218.2
EMS TECHNOLOGIES ELMG
20.95
(1.2)
1.3
18.6
34.6
GARMIN GRMN
53.93
(1.8)
7.5
26.2
84.1
GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
4.72
(3.7)
(3.7)
(0.4)
(39.5)
GLOBECOM GCOM
5.98
(9.7)
8.7
31.4
59.5
HARRIS HRS
38.43
0.1
2.9
12.7
46.1
HONEYWELL HON
30.83
4.0
3.5
9.8
28.5
KVH KVHI
29.51
(4.5)
2.5
1.9
243.1
LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
48.87
5.1
7.0
(4.6)
(15.4)
LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
2.93
(3.9)
(11.5)
42.2
132.5
MOTOROLA MOT
12.98
(5.0)
(3.7)
21.4
50.1
NERA NERAY
2.17
(0.5)
7.4
(6.9)
99.9
ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
11.32
15.0
19.5
21.1
168.2
QUALCOMM QCOM
50.29
13.1
7.7
23.8
38.2
RAYTHEON RTN
28.77
1.9
8.0
(9.8)
(6.4)
ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
27.07
0.9
(2.0)
3.0
16.4
SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
27.16
(2.7)
(6.2)
(19.8)
129.0
SKY FRAMES SKYU
0.35
250.0
(53.3)
(72.0)
(95.6)
TITAN TTN
21.69
1.2
2.9
21.0
108.6
TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
30.35
(0.8)
7.1
14.1
143.0
VIASAT VSAT
19.05
(9.6)
(13.3)
17.1
65.1
Manufacturers’ Average  
100.00
10.2
(0.4)
9.1
64.4
Nasdaq Composite Index
Nasdaq comp
1,942.32
(0.9)
0.0
6.5
45.4
SP 500 sp50
1,071.22
0.6
2.3
6.0
21.8
SN Stock Price Average
100.00
48.9
2.6
16.3
77.0

 

Wall Street Analysis

By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities

Sirius Satellite Radio [NYSE: SIRI] last week attained its 200,000 subscriber goal and met its corporate year-end goal of “more than 200,000.” That mark was lowered in the third quarter from 300,000, but it is still a significant milestone. The recently introduced Sirius boom box product may have lifted holiday sales in the aftermarket channel, although supplies are limited. Rival XM Satellite Radio’s [Nasdaq: XMSR] boom box product represented a majority of holiday sales last year.

The 200,000 mark, up from 149,612 at the end of the third quarter, implies a weekly net add rate of 5,038 subscribers for the 10 weeks since the end of the third quarter. If Sirius doubles that rate during the holiday selling season, it would end the year at 230,000 subscribers and beat our conservative estimate of 213,000.

Sirius still needs to accelerate subscriber growth sharply to reach the 2 million subscriber mark necessary for EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization] and cash flow breakeven. The $450 million in cash on hand at the end of the third quarter, plus the $150 million raised in a recent equity offering, should more than fund the company to breakeven, according to our projections, if subscriber additions stay on track. Stepped-up activity from Sirius’ original equipment manufacturing (OEM) partners in 2004 should provide the necessary acceleration. During 2004, the company expects to have factory-install programs in place for 47 vehicle models representing 2.8 million vehicles.

The main risk to Sirius is a slowdown of subscriber growth due to domination of the sector by XM. While XM has a large lead over Sirius with a projected year-end 2003 subscriber count of 1.3 million, Sirius is still accelerating and has the necessary financial staying power. We look for OEM sales to speed up and become the next catalyst for Sirius’ stock.

Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at tom.watts@sgcowen.com. Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.

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