The Satellite News Financial Ticker
Week of Sept. 26 – Oct. 2, 2003
|
Percentage Change
|
|||||
Symbol
|
Oct. 2 Price
|
One Week
|
One Month
|
Three Month
|
Year to Date
|
|
Operators
|
||||||
APT SATELLITE HLDGS | ATS |
1.92
|
(17.2)
|
(30.4)
|
(18.6)
|
11.6
|
ASIASAT TELECOM | SAT |
14.76
|
(0.3)
|
(5.7)
|
(8.6)
|
29.6
|
BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING | BSY |
41.65
|
(2.2)
|
(2.0)
|
(5.8)
|
4.0
|
ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A | DISH |
39.07
|
(0.5)
|
5.5
|
12.8
|
75.5
|
HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) | GMH |
14.30
|
(0.7)
|
(4.3)
|
9.5
|
33.6
|
LORAL SPACE & COMM | LOR |
0.26
|
24.3
|
24.3
|
(90.6)
|
(93.9)
|
NEWS CORP | NWS |
33.25
|
(1.8)
|
(3.2)
|
9.2
|
26.7
|
NEW SKIES SATELLITES | NSK |
5.72
|
8.1
|
0.0
|
2.5
|
37.8
|
PANAMSAT | SPOT |
14.97
|
4.5
|
(5.3)
|
(20.0)
|
2.3
|
PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA | PSNRY |
0.00
|
(99.9)
|
(99.9)
|
(99.9)
|
(99.9)
|
PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS | PGTV |
14.65
|
(7.0)
|
(24.0)
|
(50.6)
|
11.8
|
rSTAR CORP | RSTRC |
0.61
|
(4.5)
|
(23.6)
|
15.3
|
154.6
|
SES GLOBAL | SESF.LU |
6.52
|
(0.3)
|
(4.8)
|
19.6
|
1.9
|
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO | SIRI |
1.90
|
(2.1)
|
13.3
|
11.8
|
196.9
|
XM SATELLITE RADIO | XMSR |
15.96
|
1.4
|
16.5
|
28.7
|
493.3
|
Operators’ Average |
100.00
|
(6.5)
|
(9.6)
|
(12.3)
|
59.0
|
|
Manufacturers
|
||||||
ANDREW | ANDW |
12.71
|
(0.4)
|
2.7
|
36.1
|
23.6
|
BALL | BLL |
55.45
|
1.7
|
5.0
|
23.6
|
8.3
|
BOEING | BA |
35.28
|
3.2
|
(5.6)
|
1.8
|
6.9
|
COM DEV INTL | CDV.TO |
2.28
|
(0.9)
|
34.1
|
79.5
|
130.3
|
EMS TECHNOLOGIES | ELMG |
16.99
|
(1.6)
|
(3.0)
|
26.8
|
9.1
|
GARMEN LTD. | GRMN |
42.60
|
(5.6)
|
6.6
|
9.6
|
45.4
|
GILAT SAT NETWORKS | GILTF |
4.71
|
(1.9)
|
5.1
|
(3.9)
|
(39.6)
|
GLOBECOM | GCOM |
4.05
|
8.3
|
(1.0)
|
21.6
|
8.0
|
HARRIS | HRS |
35.90
|
4.6
|
8.1
|
17.1
|
36.5
|
HONEYWELL | HON |
26.60
|
(0.3)
|
(8.2)
|
(1.5)
|
10.8
|
KVH | KVHI |
26.21
|
(8.9)
|
(5.6)
|
15.9
|
204.8
|
LOCKHEED MARTIN | LMT |
46.04
|
2.1
|
(10.1)
|
(5.0)
|
(20.3)
|
LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES | LU |
2.14
|
(2.7)
|
13.2
|
5.9
|
69.8
|
MOTOROLA | MOT |
12.24
|
(0.2)
|
14.1
|
32.5
|
41.5
|
NERA | NERAY |
2.03
|
(7.2)
|
(3.9)
|
49.9
|
87.0
|
ORBITAL SCIENCES | ORB |
9.62
|
1.2
|
9.7
|
29.6
|
128.0
|
QUALCOMM | QCOM |
43.10
|
(1.0)
|
4.3
|
19.6
|
18.4
|
RAYTHEON | RTN |
28.09
|
(2.8)
|
(12.4)
|
(15.5)
|
(8.7)
|
ROCKWELL COLLINS | COL |
25.59
|
1.9
|
(5.4)
|
1.5
|
10.0
|
SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA | SFA |
30.90
|
(3.7)
|
(9.1)
|
26.2
|
160.5
|
SKY FRAMES | SKYU |
1.05
|
(19.2)
|
16.7
|
(25.0)
|
(86.9)
|
STM WIRELESS | STMI |
0.03
|
2,900.0
|
900.0
|
500.0
|
(85.0)
|
TITAN | TTN |
20.87
|
0.7
|
29.8
|
103.4
|
100.7
|
TRIMBLE NAVIGATION | TRMB |
23.68
|
(5.5)
|
(11.4)
|
3.9
|
89.6
|
VIASAT | VSAT |
18.53
|
4.0
|
16.9
|
34.7
|
60.6
|
Manufacturers’ Average |
100.00
|
114.6
|
39.6
|
39.5
|
40.4
|
|
Nasdaq Composite Index | COMP |
1,836.19
|
(0.4)
|
1.4
|
12.0
|
37.5
|
S & P 500 | SP50 |
1,020.24
|
1.1
|
1.2
|
3.9
|
16.0
|
SN Stock Price Average |
100.00
|
69.2
|
21.2
|
20.1
|
47.4
|
Wall Street Analysis
By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities
Whoever doubted that satellite radio would take off? XM Satellite Radio [Nasdaq: XMSR] announced last week 237,395 net new subscribers for the third quarter. That number topped our 230,000 forecast and beat the consensus outlook from industry analysts. The company’s subscriber total of 929,648 on Sept. 30 positions it to achieve its guidance of 1.2 million subscribers by year-end and puts it closer to hitting our projection of 1.285 million subscribers.
We continue to expect XM’s stock to trade strongly through the end of the year due to holiday spending in the aftermarket, launch of its “Roadie” product and ramp-up of OEM sales through General Motors [NYSE: GM] and Honda [NYSE: HMC].
The question now becomes – How soon will XM reach 1 million subscribers? We expect the company to pass the mark around Halloween but it may not announce the milestone until November.
Meanwhile, Sirius Satellite Radio [Nasdaq: SIRI] attained flat net new subscriber growth of 37,127 during the second quarter. We look for net new subscribers to pick up, reaching 80,000 in the third quarter. That improvement would bring Sirius’ subscriber count to 185,186 after six quarters of nationwide operations. By comparison, XM reached a similar point after three quarters. XM achieved this more rapid growth even before the launch of its plug-and-play SkyFi unit in the fourth quarter of 2002. We agree with Sirius management that the subscriber gap between the two companies will widen before it narrows, given the delay of Sirius’ OEM partners Ford [NYSE: F] and DaimlerChrysler [NYSE: DCX] in moving to a factory install program for Sirius radios similar to GM’s factory installs for XM. Still, the valuations of the two companies reflect their relative progress – Sirius’ current enterprise value totals about 50 percent of XM’s. That valuation gap is broadly consistent with Sirius’ subscriber base, which we project to be 44 percent of XM’s at the end of the third quarter.
Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at [email protected]. Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation.