Tags: Earth Observation, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, North Korea
Publication: NPR.org
Publication Date: 12/28/2012

Imagery from December 13 provides the best view of the area to date. Image credit: GeoEye/North 38

An analysis of new satellite images indicates that North Korea could be preparing to conduct the expected third nuclear test after its successful long-range missile launch that placed an apparently dead spacecraft into orbit. Flood damage at its nuclear test facility seems to have been repaired in preparation.

A new nuclear test is expected because of a hint North Korea’s Foreign Ministry let out after the successful rocket launch on Dec. 12, and because of a pattern observed in the past. Soon after missile launch trials in 2006 and 2009, North Korea performed its first and second atomic explosions. A new one puts North Korea closer to perfecting a small nuclear warhead that could hit the United States.

The country is thought to have enough plutonium to develop crude atomic bombs but it still hasn’t perfected the technology for a real nuclear weapons program.

Some experts are hesitant to believe North Korea would perform a new nuclear explosion because of the new elected president in South Korea and Obama’s reelection in the U.S. The Institute for Peace Affairs, a private think tank in Seoul, believes these events could prompt the North to consider diplomacy as an option.

More distrustful analysts believe a new test could happen in as little as two weeks. However, even though flood damage appears to have been repaired, it seems like water is still seeping from a tunnel entrance, which could hurt a nuclear device and the sensors needed to supervise a test. Additionally, a new structure identified in the satellite images could be meant to protect the equipment from bad weather.

Still, analysts caution that the GeoEye and Digital Globe satellite images from Dec. 13 can only help get an idea of what could be happening, they are not conclusive. Nuclear test preparations are usually done deep within a mountain, away from an Earth observation satellite’s view.

Experts are waiting on the United Nation’s response to the missile launch and the North’s reaction to the new South Korean government to be able to make more concise speculations about what could happen regarding a nuclear test. Also, China’s position on the situation is pivotal to its understanding.

A new nuclear test would undermine North Korea’s claims that the rocket launch was really for a peaceful space program and not for a weapons program as the international community thinks.

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