What to Watch for in the Smallsat Industry in 2024

Photo: NASA

2024 should be a remarkable year of achievements in the space industry. I’m excited by several activities converging in the aerospace industry and how they will affect satellite manufacturing. A few pivotal trends will play important roles: technology advancements in material and production capabilities, regulatory shifts, the integration of artificial intelligence, and the continued importance of public-private partnerships.

Satellite rideshare options are set to expand in 2024 with several European and American companies proving out their launch solutions. Plans to return to the Moon and explore Mars have driven many of the newer technologies, and over the next year, we should begin to see the fruition of these investments. The advent of newer transport options will continue bringing down the biggest barrier to space entry – cost, and thereby help stimulate greater business development utilizing space-based data sources such as those provided by satellites. With decreased launch costs, we’ll continue to see rideshare payloads with increased capabilities, size, and mass, which means more capability on orbit for fewer dollars.

As additional launch and space transport options become available, we should see manufacturers being able to lower total delivery costs, which further expands the satellite market. This will change paradigms on what size satellites are possible in orbits from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to Geostationary (GEO).

Technological Advancements and Innovation

The advancement of technologies such as 3D printing, smart propulsion systems, robotic technologies, newer chemistries such as low-carbon hydrogens for more efficient batteries, and ever more powerful electronic chips, along with the testing of advanced nuclear thermal propulsion, will accelerate in 2024.

Industry research firms and analysts are projecting thousands of new satellites in orbit by the end of the decade. With these increased satellite launches, there will be orbital traffic management considerations and opportunities for newer technologies such as orbital refueling and remote servicing to extend satellite lifespans, improve transport options for shuttling, as well as de-orbit removal solutions. These factors will influence how satellites are designed and manufactured, making the ever-present tradeoffs on weight, power, and size easier equations.

Regulatory Changes

There are a number of regulatory matters being considered next year by United States Congress and international lawmakers. Two pieces of U.S. legislation – the Satellite and Telecommunications Streamlining Act and the Secure Space Act – have numerous industry implications, including foreign ownership rules, licensing, and satellite spectrum sharing.

Another law, the Commercial Space Act, or H.R. 6131, addresses orbital debris and elevates the Office of Space Commerce as its own entity within the Department of Commerce. The bill also calls for additional research and development at NASA on how to improve U.S. space situational awareness activities. This legislation is expected to strengthen space commerce by supporting private sector development and deployment of in-space servicing, assembly, and manufacturing, along with streamlining regulatory certifications.

In addition, the Federal Communications Commission is considering rule-making that would allow satellite-to-mobile on some terrestrial communication spectrum bands. This would open opportunities for satellite data to reach remote locations on Earth faster, as well as have widespread commercial applications.

The Emergence of Artificial Intelligence

AI-powered technologies have taken many industries by storm, and space is no exception. With satellites, AI is enabling the faster processing and analysis of data, giving companies, countries, and decision-makers improved intelligence. It’s helping us better predict weather and monitor climate patterns on Earth, as well as perform more complex capabilities like edge computing.

AI is benefiting the satellite industry by enhancing the on-orbit efficiency of platforms. There’s great promise in how AI solutions can help with autonomous orbital tasking, navigation, maintaining state-of-health, and orbital positioning. The technology can speed up communication between satellites, ensuring optimal data-gathering, transmission uptimes, and resiliency in the event one satellite in a constellation goes down. We are rapidly moving toward autonomous satellites with the ability to maintain safe operations, resolve a level of orbital anomalies, and actively steer through an increasingly congested space. This will improve our overall utilization of space while increasing the speed of operations.

Industry Collaboration

NASA and the Space Development Agency (SDA) have played a vital role in nurturing a vibrant industrial base of collaborative commercial space companies in the United States. Internationally, supportive frameworks for public-private partnerships have existed for some time in the space community, including through joint ventures. The International Space Station is a good model of successful public-private partnering to expand technology development and research. By looking beyond traditional large contractors to deliver technology rapidly, governments have helped transform the space industry.

Strategic alliances will continue to develop and intensify in the space industry. Commercialization and exploration of space are easier achieved through partnerships between companies and governments. Technology solutions are now being matured by both new space and large, traditional aerospace companies. For example, new space companies working together can mitigate risks, spur technology innovation, and speed up the pace of product development and production.

2024 promises to bring an insurgence of collaboration and innovation, along with more established regulatory processes for the space sector. Industry leaders should take note of these anticipated trends and evaluate how they can support the evolving needs of the growing space economy.

Aerospace and defense technology industries executive Tim Kienberger brings two decades of innovative leadership and experience to his role as the CEO of LeoStella. Tim has continuously driven impactful results for customers and constituents in the advancement of space systems as a strategic leader with expertise in operations management, program execution and new methods that include Model-Based Engineering to improve product performance and delivery. Prior to joining LeoStella, Tim built executive-level programs at L3 Harris and Boeing.