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The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By Staff Writer | January 5, 2004

      Week of Dec. 26 – Jan. 1, 2003
      Percentage Change
      Symbol
      Dec. 31 Price
      One Week
      One Month
      Three Month
      Year to Date
      Operators
      APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
      2.49
      6.0
      (5.0)
      19.7
      44.8
      ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
      19.60
      2.1
      14.0
      31.1
      72.1
      BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
      51.19
      0.8
      9.2
      24.2
      27.8
      ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
      34.29
      1.0
      (0.5)
      (10.5)
      54.0
      HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
      16.62
      1.3
      0.1
      16.1
      55.3
      LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
      0.31
      (6.1)
      (6.1)
      59.0
      (92.8)
      NEWS CORP NWS
      36.92
      6.1
      7.8
      12.6
      40.6
      NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
      7.16
      5.0
      6.1
      24.3
      72.5
      PANAMSAT SPOT
      21.86
      4.6
      (1.0)
      51.0
      49.3
      PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
      0.05
      –
      (71.4)
      (70.6)
      (66.7)
      PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
      28.45
      (3.9)
      42.3
      90.9
      117.2
      SES GLOBAL SESF.LU
      8.00
      (1.6)
      0.5
      20.3
      25.0
      SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
      3.31
      37.9
      59.1
      81.9
      417.2
      XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
      26.44
      10.8
      6.3
      70.6
      882.9
      Operators’ Average
      100.00
      4.6
      4.4
      30.0
      121.4
      Manufacturers
      ANDREW ANDW
      11.89
      5.7
      1.0
      (1.6)
      15.7
      BALL BLL
      59.43
      0.8
      6.2
      10.1
      16.1
      BOEING BA
      42.48
      2.7
      10.7
      23.7
      28.8
      COM DEV INTL *CDV
      2.88
      (3.4)
      (12.7)
      25.8
      190.9
      EMS TECHNOLOGIES ELMG
      20.36
      5.9
      (4.2)
      19.9
      30.8
      GARMIN GRMN
      54.89
      1.7
      (2.0)
      31.1
      87.3
      GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
      4.91
      (0.8)
      (1.0)
      9.8
      (37.1)
      GLOBECOM GCOM
      4.58
      (8.0)
      (34.6)
      16.5
      22.1
      HARRIS HRS
      38.29
      1.8
      (1.2)
      7.0
      45.6
      HONEYWELL HON
      33.35
      1.9
      12.3
      26.6
      39.0
      KVH KVHI
      27.50
      3.9
      (12.9)
      8.8
      219.8
      LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
      51.08
      0.8
      11.2
      10.7
      (11.5)
      LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
      2.89
      2.1
      (9.7)
      33.8
      129.4
      MOTOROLA MOT
      14.26
      4.2
      1.6
      19.3
      64.9
      NERA NERAY
      2.07
      3.8
      (2.4)
      7.6
      91.5
      ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
      12.05
      (1.7)
      31.4
      29.8
      185.5
      QUALCOMM QCOM
      54.39
      2.9
      22.1
      30.5
      49.5
      RAYTHEON RTN
      30.14
      0.6
      8.8
      7.6
      (2.0)
      ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
      29.88
      1.6
      11.1
      18.3
      28.5
      SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
      27.58
      (0.0)
      (4.5)
      (11.5)
      132.5
      SKY FRAMES SKYU
      0.10
      –
      –
      (90.9)
      (98.8)
      TITAN TTN
      21.81
      0.0
      2.2
      4.7
      109.7
      TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
      37.02
      1.7
      22.1
      60.6
      196.4
      VIASAT VSAT
      19.27
      1.3
      (9.4)
      8.0
      67.0
      Manufacturers’ Average
      100.00
      1.2
      1.9
      12.8
      66.7
      Nasdaq Composite Index
      Nasdaq comp
      2,020.46
      2.6
      3.1
      13.1
      51.3
      SP 500 sp50
      1,118.36
      2.2
      5.7
      12.3
      27.1
      SN Stock Price Average
      100.00
      2.5
      2.8
      19.1
      86.9

      Wall Street Analysis

      By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities

      The stock price of Sirius Satellite Radio [NYSE: SIRI] rose 77 percent in the last 10 trading days on large volume. While we see multiple positive data points, including the possibility of exceptional fourth quarter performance, and we believe Sirius has long-term upside, we do not believe recent events justify the rise. The increase may be due to investors chasing benchmarks driven by the Sirius stock price rally. We have seen potential in other positive data points, including the company’s recent National Football League (NFL) deal, an agreement to spur vehicle installations with BMW, a potential vehicle installation contract with Toyota [NYSE: TM], and positive news expected to be released at this week’s Consumer Electronics show in Las Vegas.

      Many observers criticized Sirius for spending $220 million, and issuing warrants, for rights to NFL programming for the next seven years. However, we view this deal positively. Roughly 495,000 incremental subscribers would justify the deal.

      On the automobile manufacturers’ front, Sirius announced that BMW would make its units available on a factory-installed basis for the car builder’s 5 series vehicles. This development is a positive sign that BMW is moving toward factory installs, but the announcement is not momentous by itself. Sirius was previously available on this model as a dealer-installed option. In 2002, the BMW 5 series accounted for only 40,842 vehicles out of the 16 million vehicles sold in the United States industry-wide.

      To date, Toyota has worked only with XM Satellite Radio [Nasdaq: XMSR]. Three Toyota vehicles – the Camry Solara Coupe, the Scion and the Lexus ES 430 – now offer XM on a dealer-install basis. Since Toyota’s relationship with XM is non-exclusive, we see the potential for Sirius to announce a Toyota deal as well. In fact, Sirius management is in negotiations with Toyota. We expect a non-exclusive, dealer-install arrangement, similar to the Nissan/Infiniti deal. Toyota holds 11 percent of the U.S. new car market and represents an important Sirius partner. If Toyota went exclusively with Sirius, it would swing the tables in its favor.

      Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at [email protected] . Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.

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