Latest News
The Satellite News Financial Ticker
|
Week of Dec. 4 – 11, 2003
|
Percentage Change
|
|||||
|
Symbol
|
Dec. 11
Price
|
One
Week
|
One
Month
|
Three
Month
|
Year to
Date
|
|
|
Operators
|
||||||
| APT SATELLITE HLDGS | ATS |
2.59
|
1.2
|
(1.9)
|
8.8
|
50.6
|
| ASIASAT TELECOM | SAT |
17.80
|
2.6
|
0.6
|
9.3
|
56.3
|
| BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING | BSY |
47.35
|
1.0
|
5.6
|
13.9
|
18.2
|
| ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A | DISH |
31.55
|
(4.0)
|
(14.3)
|
(13.6)
|
41.7
|
| HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) | GMH |
15.73
|
(4.1)
|
(5.1)
|
10.6
|
47.0
|
| LORAL SPACE & COMM | LOR |
0.35
|
16.3
|
(7.9)
|
55.6
|
(91.9)
|
| NEWS CORP | NWS |
34.42
|
0.4
|
(7.0)
|
1.7
|
31.1
|
| NEW SKIES SATELLITES | NSK |
7.00
|
1.0
|
2.9
|
26.8
|
68.7
|
| PANAMSAT | SPOT |
22.63
|
3.2
|
7.4
|
49.9
|
54.6
|
| PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA | PSNRY |
0.17
|
1,600.0
|
142.9
|
112.5
|
13.3
|
| PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS | PGTV |
18.69
|
(1.6)
|
(15.0)
|
18.1
|
42.7
|
| SES GLOBAL | SESF.LU |
7.94
|
(1.2)
|
0.4
|
28.5
|
24.1
|
| SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO | SIRI |
2.17
|
2.8
|
(1.9)
|
26.8
|
238.9
|
| XM SATELLITE RADIO | XMSR |
23.81
|
(3.6)
|
2.9
|
52.9
|
785.1
|
| Operators’ Average |
100.00
|
115.3
|
7.8
|
28.7
|
98.6
|
|
|
Manufacturers
|
||||||
| ANDREW | ANDW |
10.77
|
(5.9)
|
(16.1)
|
(17.2)
|
4.8
|
| BALL | BLL |
57.94
|
1.1
|
4.5
|
12.7
|
13.2
|
| BOEING | BA |
39.53
|
2.6
|
1.8
|
11.0
|
19.8
|
| COM DEV INTL | *CDV |
3.15
|
(1.6)
|
8.6
|
60.7
|
218.2
|
| EMS TECHNOLOGIES | ELMG |
20.95
|
(1.2)
|
1.3
|
18.6
|
34.6
|
| GARMIN | GRMN |
53.93
|
(1.8)
|
7.5
|
26.2
|
84.1
|
| GILAT SAT NETWORKS | GILTF |
4.72
|
(3.7)
|
(3.7)
|
(0.4)
|
(39.5)
|
| GLOBECOM | GCOM |
5.98
|
(9.7)
|
8.7
|
31.4
|
59.5
|
| HARRIS | HRS |
38.43
|
0.1
|
2.9
|
12.7
|
46.1
|
| HONEYWELL | HON |
30.83
|
4.0
|
3.5
|
9.8
|
28.5
|
| KVH | KVHI |
29.51
|
(4.5)
|
2.5
|
1.9
|
243.1
|
| LOCKHEED MARTIN | LMT |
48.87
|
5.1
|
7.0
|
(4.6)
|
(15.4)
|
| LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES | LU |
2.93
|
(3.9)
|
(11.5)
|
42.2
|
132.5
|
| MOTOROLA | MOT |
12.98
|
(5.0)
|
(3.7)
|
21.4
|
50.1
|
| NERA | NERAY |
2.17
|
(0.5)
|
7.4
|
(6.9)
|
99.9
|
| ORBITAL SCIENCES | ORB |
11.32
|
15.0
|
19.5
|
21.1
|
168.2
|
| QUALCOMM | QCOM |
50.29
|
13.1
|
7.7
|
23.8
|
38.2
|
| RAYTHEON | RTN |
28.77
|
1.9
|
8.0
|
(9.8)
|
(6.4)
|
| ROCKWELL COLLINS | COL |
27.07
|
0.9
|
(2.0)
|
3.0
|
16.4
|
| SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA | SFA |
27.16
|
(2.7)
|
(6.2)
|
(19.8)
|
129.0
|
| SKY FRAMES | SKYU |
0.35
|
250.0
|
(53.3)
|
(72.0)
|
(95.6)
|
| TITAN | TTN |
21.69
|
1.2
|
2.9
|
21.0
|
108.6
|
| TRIMBLE NAVIGATION | TRMB |
30.35
|
(0.8)
|
7.1
|
14.1
|
143.0
|
| VIASAT | VSAT |
19.05
|
(9.6)
|
(13.3)
|
17.1
|
65.1
|
| Manufacturers’ Average |
100.00
|
10.2
|
(0.4)
|
9.1
|
64.4
|
|
|
Nasdaq Composite Index
|
||||||
| Nasdaq | comp |
1,942.32
|
(0.9)
|
0.0
|
6.5
|
45.4
|
| SP 500 | sp50 |
1,071.22
|
0.6
|
2.3
|
6.0
|
21.8
|
| SN Stock Price Average |
100.00
|
48.9
|
2.6
|
16.3
|
77.0
|
|
Wall Street Analysis
By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities
Sirius Satellite Radio [NYSE: SIRI] last week attained its 200,000 subscriber goal and met its corporate year-end goal of “more than 200,000.” That mark was lowered in the third quarter from 300,000, but it is still a significant milestone. The recently introduced Sirius boom box product may have lifted holiday sales in the aftermarket channel, although supplies are limited. Rival XM Satellite Radio’s [Nasdaq: XMSR] boom box product represented a majority of holiday sales last year.
The 200,000 mark, up from 149,612 at the end of the third quarter, implies a weekly net add rate of 5,038 subscribers for the 10 weeks since the end of the third quarter. If Sirius doubles that rate during the holiday selling season, it would end the year at 230,000 subscribers and beat our conservative estimate of 213,000.
Sirius still needs to accelerate subscriber growth sharply to reach the 2 million subscriber mark necessary for EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization] and cash flow breakeven. The $450 million in cash on hand at the end of the third quarter, plus the $150 million raised in a recent equity offering, should more than fund the company to breakeven, according to our projections, if subscriber additions stay on track. Stepped-up activity from Sirius’ original equipment manufacturing (OEM) partners in 2004 should provide the necessary acceleration. During 2004, the company expects to have factory-install programs in place for 47 vehicle models representing 2.8 million vehicles.
The main risk to Sirius is a slowdown of subscriber growth due to domination of the sector by XM. While XM has a large lead over Sirius with a projected year-end 2003 subscriber count of 1.3 million, Sirius is still accelerating and has the necessary financial staying power. We look for OEM sales to speed up and become the next catalyst for Sirius’ stock.
Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at [email protected]. Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.
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