Despite mounting evidence that the global economy could be in for a long-term slump, executives and analysts see the satellite sector as mostly immune — except for one high-profile sector.
While governments around the world weigh what steps they can or must take to reverse the financial slide, the satellite industry does not look to be lining up for a bailout. Most executives are confident they can weather the current storm, though the impact of a financial meltdown will have varying impacts on different business niches.
“I think the satellite industry is going to do quite well, and probably better than most, because of a number of factors,” says Max Engel, industry analyst with Frost & Sullivan’s North American Telecom Services Practice. The key factor could be the customer that the satellite business serves. Those with revenues derived from long-term video distribution deals look safe. “If you have a lot of contracts of that type, then you are fairly well insulated from the ups and downs of the economies provided that major networks don’t go bankrupt,” he says. But businesses that rely more on short-term contracts or individual consumer revenues may face some difficulties. “The nature of the contract and customers are vital in determining how vital a market will be,” says Engel.
FSS Players on Solid Ground
CEOs from the satellite industry’s largest companies remain largely optimistic about their prospects. “The third quarter has been very strong and looking out a little bit, everyone is fairly optimistic about at least what the next year looks like,” says Dan Goldberg, CEO of Telesat. “This business is characterized by this, and this is why the private equity guys were interested in our sector — really good cash flows, and not just good cash flows today, but because we have these significant backlogs, we have great visibility into our cash flow going forward, particularly the larger operations, who have really strong customers who even in an economic downturn will continue to consume our services. … If you talk to most of the representatives of these companies, they are pretty bullish about next year. You’re almost tempted to say ‘What economic crisis?’ but it’s not like that and it does have an impact on our sector,” he says.
Intelsat CEO, Dave McGlade said that his business model has not changed drastically either. “We are a diversified industry. When you are spread across the world, you have insulation from economic downturns. We have seen minimal impact.” There even may be growth opportunities in this time. “Media providers are our main drivers. Providing backhaul, Internet and data and HD video services to emerging nations are crucial to their economies and the demand is clearly there. Globalization has and will continue to increase demand,” he says.
“Video distribution always has been the jewel in the crown for satellite,” says Engel. “It suits satellite’s strength perfectly. It’s just a perfect use of satellite and isolated from consumer demand. Short of absolute economic chaos, they are more likely to increase their offerings in order to get more of the declining market. Satellite distribution should do very well. In the longer run, satellites could become an issue if the markets are not willing to support the investment, but they look really good for the future.”
Providers of VSAT corporate networks also are in a good position, as they generally have three-to-five-year contracts. “Once networks are put in place it’s relatively hard to change it. In the next few years, that will be a considerable advantage and will keep VSAT sales up,” says Engel. “As far as the negatives, new applications are one of the major reasons companies change their networks and I think we will see a decline in the rate of growth in VSAT services because decline in rate of growth of applications companies use unless they’re absolutely critical. The decline in the number of stores will not remove networks, but the decline in the number of stores will decrease profitability. … The VSAT market is looking good but probably not as solid as video distribution. If things continue to be bad another five to six years, then you may ask if companies may look to reduce VSAT networks.”
Suppliers of these sectors also look to be on solid ground. “Like most, we’re keeping a close eye on the economy,” says Theresa Beech, managing director and vice president of business development for GMV. “We don’t see an impact right now, and part of that is because we’re really quite diversified within the satellite industry. We work with commercial customers, institutional customers and the user application community, around the world. Our backlog of orders is pretty strong through 2009 and even pushing into 2010.”
A sector that does not have as solid of a footing as the FSS and VSAT sectors is the DTH business, says Engel. “When consumers have less money, one of the places they can cut back is their video,” he says. “One of the problems is that DTH video can’t really cut back their offerings. Even as the number of customers declines, you still have to offer at least as much video and possibly more, so you can’t really cut your costs in a big way. Likewise, you are subject to price wars with the terrestrial providers, and there are limited revenue streams.” The financial slowdown could bring more joint marketing of services with terrestrial players. “This isn’t something that is happening a great deal now, but we’re seeing the beginning with telco video offerings of using satellite to deliver a lot of video, and the terrestrial communications links being used to deliver video on demand. Possibly with long-term arrangements with terrestrial providers, DTH can remain viable even as the markets moves more toward video on demand,” he says.
But other growing direct-to-consumer offerings look to be in good shape, says Engel. Mobile services providers such as Inmarsat and Orbcomm are seeing revenue growth in low-data rate services, and while those contracts are generally short term and more volatile, the services are so unique that growth should continue, in part because it does not require a large investment by customers. Satellite broadband should also remain solid, as the operators have carved out a niche providing services to those with no other alternatives. “There may be reduced growth and there has been increased churn, but I think satellite broadband will continue to grow through bad economic times, in part because it will offer a relatively low-cost way to substitute for relatively low-cost alternatives like VSAT,” he says.
Financing Issues
One aspect of the global financial crisis that the satellite industry cannot rise above is the credit crunch. “We are heading into a nuclear winter of funding,” says Craig Moffett, managing director of Sanford Bernstein. “$1 trillion of funding has been wiped out. $15 trillion of lending capacity has disappeared. Any business plan that your company had four weeks ago needs to be thrown out the window. Credit is going to be tight, and in order to gain stock share, smaller players need to spend on an excess of scale. In an environment with tight credit, smaller players die. There needs to be drastic change.” Todd Mitchell, vice president of cable and satellite equity research for Kaufman Brothers joins Moffett in expressing the need for satellite companies to scale back future projects and focus on breaking even. The two urged satellite executives to weigh potential customer and subscriber acquisition against the cost of the projects.
Goldberg acknowledges that the credit crunch could have an impact on the FSS players, which will have to replace satellites even if they do not look to expand offerings. “It’s really bad out there right now. It really is the case that the financing market is unrecognizable from where it was 18 months ago. Even for good strong credit, it’s really difficult to raise money, and if you can raise money, its 12 times more expensive and comes with much heavier operating covenants. There are still lenders out there, but they really now only want to lend to really robust credits. If you need financing right now, it’s not a wonderful position to be in.”
While FSS players may have long-term concerns, the credit problems are more likely to adversely affect any new initiatives immediately, says Goldberg. “Where it impacts our business, and some more than others, some of us have balance sheets more leveraged than others. What it means is that in an environment where your cost of capital is going up and because of an economic downturn there is more inherent conservatism about launching new satellites,” he says. “There are certain business cases that when looked at 24 months ago, maybe you would be inclined to go forward on them. When you put the business case together today and then add the cost of launch, insurance, borrowing cost and launch services, that business cases may be more marginal. Maybe today in this environment you don’t go forward.”
Smaller operators and new operators also will be facing tough choices. “If a new entrant is trying to find financing for a new project, good luck,” says Goldberg. “If you didn’t have that financing lined up and locked down 18 months ago you will have a tough, tough time in front of them in terms of getting financing. That obviously will have an impact on our industry,” and after satellite transponder prices plunged in the late 1990s due to overcapacity, Goldberg can see the positive side of the credit crisis. “Ultimately, I think it will be a good thing if some of these speculative projects don’t get funded and some of these marginal business cases don’t go forward. I’m by and large an optimist. I think the credit markets will come back and it will all work.”
Concern Over Satellite Radio
While many sectors of the satellite industry expect to hum along during the economic crisis, a company that has the most to worry about, according to several analysts, is Sirius XM Radio. The two satellite radio operators completed their merger in late June after finally convincing the U.S. government that their only chance for survival in the new competitive landscape was to form a single company, but the new entity continues to struggle as much as the two individual companies. While revenues and subscriber numbers continue to climb, Sirius XM revealed in early November that it was in discussions with several financial institutions regarding financing to replace its 2.5 percent convertible notes due 2009. The company faces $1.1 billion in loan repayments in 2009, which includes $300 million in convertible bonds in February. Citing economic conditions and a dramatic slowdown in auto sales, Sirius XM also lowered its year-end subscriber expectations from $19.5 million to $19.1 million and cut its 2009 estimate to $20.6 million from its previous figure of $21.5 million.
Moffett does not have a rosy outlook for the company. “They are essentially a monopoly. They do not have to compete with any other company when it comes to signing deals with auto manufacturers for installation. They have no competitors for NFL and Major League Baseball coverage. They have a superior product but are unfundable, and I think it is only going to get worse. They need a sustainable business model.”
Engel also shares a bleak outlook for Sirius XM. “In spite of the recent merger, it’s not looking particularly good to me. They have a good product, but they are not a necessary product. They haven’t achieved the sort of market penetration and market acceptance that cable has. Like DirecTV, it sells to consumers, so less spending can equal less profit, but the industry isn’t profitable anyway, which is a problem. If they had been profitable going into bad times they would have some sort of cushion. As it is, they are trying to build to profitability in bad times, which is not a good place to be.”
Gary Parsons, Sirius XM’s chairman, acknowledges that the macroeconomic environment is affecting the satellite radio operator — just as its having an impact on companies around the globe, but Parsons and those behind the launch of the satellite radio industry have worked hard to build the product and expect that once all the merger synergies have been realized, that Sirius XM will be a strong, profitable company. “I was involved in founding XM more than a decade ago and spent years bringing in money and convincing people that a new subscriber-based product that most people got for free was good idea. Now we don’t need new money going forward. We can generate our own. One of the big issues is the overhanging stocks and notes come due in the coming year. We have to roll those over. The positive news is that with the combination and synergies being driven, which are undeniably there to be captured. We will be positive $30 million to $40 million in EBITDA in the coming year. There clearly is a positive trajectory and feel to the combined company in the coming year.”
Riding Out the Storm
While most of the satellite sector looks well prepared to survive the economic downturn, there are still some things to keep an eye on, says Andreas Georghiou, CEO of Spacenet. “In desperate times, people do desperate things. When you consider the technological alternatives to our business, our behavior is going to be determined a lot by what others do. The models of trying to model yourself, whether a leader or a particpant in a niche, you worry about what are the desperate members of niche going to do and be ready to react before you miss the turn. The degree of leverage of a company also is going to determine the course of action. All aspects of a business are interrelated, but with highly leveraged companies, a miss on a business plan could be very, very impactful,” he says.
“In as much as satellite services are providing necessary but not optional services, they’re likely to do well to the degree they are serving wholesale or long-term markets and not consumer markets,” says Engel “Their revenues should be more stable, and with the exception of satellite radio in particular, which isn’t making money right now, I think the whole satellite industry should do well. It has strong offerings and it’s pretty well entrenched. We’re in a time when customers aren’t going to make changes for changes sakes, so I think we’ll see the satellite industry do pretty well even as the economy tanks.”
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