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The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By | September 8, 2003

      Week of Aug. 29 – Sept. 4, 2003
      Percentage Change

      Symbol
      Sept. 4 Price
      One Week
      One Month
      Three Month
      Year to Date
      Operators
      APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
      3.1
      13.1
      0.6
      55.8
      80.2
      ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
      16.9
      9.7
      1.8
      48.4
      BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
      42.33
      0.4
      -6.3
      -2
      5.7
      ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
      38.76
      6.5
      8.4
      17.3
      74.1
      HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
      15
      3.6
      10.1
      23
      40.2
      LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
      0.2
      -2.4
      -8
      -94.3
      -95.3
      NEWS CORP NWS
      34.92
      4.6
      14.7
      13.2
      33
      NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
      5.65
      0.9
      0.2
      -5.8
      36.1
      PANAMSAT SPOT
      15.6
      -2.9
      -9
      -17.8
      6.6
      PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
      0.08
      14.3
      6.7
      -46.7
      PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
      18.1
      -4.7
      -49.3
      -29.8
      38.2
      rSTAR CORP RSTRC
      0.7
      -10.3
      18.6
      34.6
      191.7
      SES GLOBAL SESF.LU
      6.2
      -8.1
      17
      -3.1
      SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
      1.66
      3.8
      -8.1
      -29.4
      159.4
      XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
      13.68
      2.6
      -2.6
      9.4
      408.6
      Operators’ Average
      100
      1.1
      -1.1
      0
      65.1
      Manufacturers
      ANDREW ANDW
      12.7
      8
      20.2
      32.2
      23.5
      BALL BLL
      52.9
      8.1
      9.3
      9.2
      3.3
      BOEING BA
      37.84
      4.7
      16.7
      17.8
      14.7
      EMS TECHNOLOGIES ELMG
      18.92
      9.7
      14.7
      40.1
      21.5
      GARMEN LTD. GRMN
      42.94
      7.1
      12.3
      -11.4
      46.6
      GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
      4.9
      9.1
      1.7
      22.2
      -37.2
      GLOBECOM GCOM
      4.65
      17.4
      19.5
      55.5
      24
      HARRIS HRS
      35.27
      8.1
      9.7
      15.8
      34.1
      HONEYWELL HON
      29.5
      3.1
      5.3
      10.3
      22.9
      KVH KVHI
      29.89
      8.1
      49.7
      42.3
      247.6
      LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
      51.64
      0.4
      0.2
      12.4
      -10.6
      LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
      2.14
      13.2
      23
      1.4
      69.8
      MOTOROLA MOT
      10.84
      1
      17.4
      27.7
      25.3
      NERA NERAY
      2.24
      9.8
      13
      53.1
      106.6
      ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
      9.23
      4.1
      14
      58
      118.7
      QUALCOMM QCOM
      41.16
      0.4
      12.8
      18.7
      13.1
      RAYTHEON RTN
      32.47
      2.8
      5.2
      2.4
      5.6
      ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
      27.54
      2.2
      5.6
      18.6
      18.4
      SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
      34.99
      6.4
      14.7
      75
      195
      SKY FRAMES SKYU
      1.09
      24.6
      9
      -46.8
      -86.4
      STM WIRELESS STMI
      0.01
      233.3
      100
      100
      -95
      TITAN TTN
      16.85
      2.6
      12.4
      96.4
      62
      TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
      28.22
      5.3
      5.3
      8.5
      125.9
      VIASAT VSAT
      16.44
      2.4
      21.8
      33.2
      42.5
      Manufacturers’ Average
      100
      16.3
      17.2
      28.9
      41.3
      Nasdaq Composite Index COMP
      1,868.98
      4.9
      8.9
      16.6
      39.9
      S & P 500 SP50
      1,027.97
      3.1
      4.9
      5.8
      16.8
      SN Stock Price Average
      100
      10.5
      10.2
      17.8
      50.5

      Wall Street Analysis

      By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities

      Last quarter, EchoStar Communications [Nasdaq: DISH] experienced higher than usual churn of about 1.65 percent per month versus its average of about 1.5 percent.

      So what did EchoStar do to stop the bleeding? Hand out free digital video recorders (DVRs), of course. Last week, EchoStar announced its plans to offer for free its new Dish Player 510 DVR to new subscribers, going head to head with Hughes Electronics’ [NYSE: GMH] DirecTV and TiVo [Nasdaq: TIVO] as well as cable operators’ video-on-demand and DVR offerings.

      But gaining new subscribers comes with a price. Last quarter, EchoStar reported subscriber acquisition costs of $408, and we expect it to reach $490 by the end of this year.

      Is it worth it? We think so. Just look at DirecTV. It reported that the churn rate for its TiVo DVR customers was down to 0.5 percent in the second quarter compared to a 1.5 percent churn rate for non-DVR customers.

      We don’t expect the buck to stop with a free DVR. We expect to see some new and aggressive pricing offers. Also, we look forward to the unveiling of the Dish Player 921 HD with a 240 Gigabyte hard drive, dual-tuner DVR capability and the ability to record digital signals from broadcast stations. We also expect EchoStar to launch its own high-definition monitor soon.

      With new marketing tactics underway, we see significant opportunities for both EchoStar and DirecTV to capture market share from cable.

      Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at . Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.

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