[Satellite TODAY Insider 10-08-10] About 50 million 3-D TV sets will be sold around the globe by 2015, accounting for about 18 percent of worldwide flat panel TV sales, ABI Research Senior Analyst Jason Blackwell told Satellite TODAY Insider.
    “In markets like North America and Western Europe, penetration will exceed 20 percent of flat panel TV sales. We believe that HD and Internet connectivity will be more significant drivers for consumer purchases than 3-D alone,” said Blackwell.
    In a 3D-TV report released Oct. 6, ABI forecasted flat-panel TVs, 3-D-ready TVs and consumer survey data from July 2010. While Blackwell said the results of the report are promising, he does not see 3-D TV becoming a key differentiator for pay-TV operators just yet. “The cable and satellite systems can broadcast the frame-compatible 3-D content via existing HD transmission and utilize existing HD set-top boxes at the customer premises. 3-D will only be a differentiator if the operator can secure exclusive rights to a particular channel or create original content through a partnership with producers. So far, operators have been including the 3-D channels with the HD subscription, so there doesn’t seem to be an opportunity to create increased revenue just for 3-D content.”
    Blackwell does not expect the move to 3-D to have much of an impact on the set-top box market either, since HD boxes work with frame-compatible formats. “3-D could create additional demand for HD boxes if customers decide to upgrade their level of service to get the 3-D content, however, we believe there will be an increased transition to HD boxes anyway. Really, the only impact on the set-top box market will occur if the operators decide to change to a service-compatible format in order to broadcast 1080p 3-D content requiring an upgrade to the CPE.”
    The next 12 months could bring additional broadcasters jumping on the 3-D bandwagon, according to Blackwell, who also believes that broadcasters need to think about whether 3-D makes sense for their particular type of content. “This is a time of experimentation for these broadcasters, seeing what works and what doesn’t as well as testing the waters of customer acceptance and uptake of 3-D-ready TV sets. The sports broadcasters have been the most aggressive, but even then, 3-D requires additional production considerations to make sure that the event is being shot in the best way to maximize the effectiveness of the 3-D. I don’t think it makes sense for everything to be broadcast in 3-D, and in many cases the effort would be better spent on HD.”

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