The U.S. National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) could be as much as $3 billion over budget, and the launch of the first spacecraft is facing another three-year delay that could mean a potential gap in U.S. weather forecasting ability, government officials testified Nov. 16 before the House Science Committee.

The program, which will combine weather satellite programs operated by the U.S. Departments of Commerce and Defense, has seen life cycle cost estimates grow from $6.5 billion in 2002 to $8.1 billion in 2004, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) said. As of September, GAO estimates show another $1.4 billion contract cost overrun is likely, bringing the life cycle cost estimate to about $9.7 billion. “Technical risks in developing key sensors continue, and could lead to further cost increases and schedule delays,” the GAO said.

“It is now clear that, almost from the outset, decisions were made with too little analysis of the technical challenges involved in building NPOESS,” Science Committee Chairman Sherwood Boehlert (R-N.Y.), said. “It is clear that contracts were awarded at prices that did not take into account the technical risks the program faced. And it is clear that the program was inadequately supervised, allowing problems to fester and worsen before being addressed. What’s not so clear is whether these inadequacies are behind us.”

Conrad Lautenbacher, the administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Ronald, Sega, undersecretary of the U.S. Air Force, said the first spacecraft now is not expected to be launched until 2012, three years later than the most recent program plan. If the last satellites in the Polar Operational Environmental Satellite program fails before the first NPOESS launch, the GAO has forecast a potential gap in satellite coverage of at least three years.

“NPOESS is a program in crisis,” David Powner, GAO’s director of Information Technology Management Issues, told the Committee, “The current direction for the program is at a standstill, as options are being weighed to minimize cost overruns, schedule delays, and affects on users. … Management problems at multiple levels – subcontractor, contractor, program office, and executive leadership – have contributed to these cost and schedule issues.”

Northrop Grumman Space Technology (NGST), the NPOESS prime contractor, has not been threatened with the loss of any program work or funding, but Alexis Livanos, president of NGST, said his company is making changes to help get the program back on track. “We are working diligently to put NPOESS on solid footing and have made organizational changes to further improve the performance of our instrument subcontractors,” he said.

The NPOESS Tri-Agency Executive Committee has directed an Independent Program Assessment team to review the program and provide recommendations for replanning options, according to the Selected Acquisition Reports provided by the Department of Defense to Congress.

Key options under consideration in August 2005 included removing a key sensor from the first satellite, delaying launches of the first two satellites, and not launching a preliminary risk-reduction satellite. All of these options would impact the program’s cost, schedules, and the system users who rely on satellite data to develop critical weather products and forecasts, the GAO said. The also are nine new options now under consideration for NPOESS, “and that they are likely to impact costs, schedules, and system users. Until a decision is made, the program remains without a plan for moving forward,” the GAO said.

The Tri-Agency Executive Committee is expected to approve the restructuring of the NPOESS program in December, the Department of Defense said.