The failure of a Russian Rockot launch vehicle will have minimal impact in the market but could provide an opening for a new U.S. entrant into the small rocket arena, an analyst said.

“The ripple effect is primarily associated with anybody associated with anybody on the small end of the launch market,” Jeff Foust, launch industry analyst with Futron Corp., told Satellite News. “… It’s going to involve people, whether government or commercial, who might be looking at the Rockot or similar launch vehicles for small satellites.”

The Rockot vehicle, which had six successful missions under its belt for launch services provider Eurockot since 2000, suffered a failure Oct. 8 due to an anomaly in the launch sequence. The mission resulted in the destruction of the European Space Agency‘s (ESA) CryoSat environmental satellite, which was designed to study global climate change and help determine the cause of the shrinking of the polar ice cap.

Preliminary data indicates that the second stage engine failed to shut down due to a missing command from the onboard flight control system. The upper stage then failed to separate from the second stage, and the stack fell into the ocean north of Greenland. Russian authorities have established an investigation committee that will work with a failure investigation board consisting of launch provider Eurockot, ESA and Khrunichev representatives.

The Rockot failure could provide a boost for the latest entrant into the small launch vehicle market – Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), Foust said. The company, founded by Internet millionaire Elon Musk, plans to sell rides aboard its Falcon 1 rocket for less than many small launch vehicles.

If SpaceX has “a successful launch, they have a rocket that is roughly the same capability as the Rockot for potentially less money,” Foust said “The Rockot is somewhere on the order of $10 million per launch and the Falcon-1 is about $6 million. If SpaceX can go out and have a successful first launch and demonstrate its rocket is successful for less money, it certainly does provide some potential opportunities.”

The Falcon 1’s first mission, however, carrying the Tacsat-1 experimental satellite for the U.S. Department of Defense, continues to be delayed.

Another limiting factor for all small launch vehicles is the lack of market demand, Foust said. “There isn’t a huge demand for commercial launch services on a small end,” he said “A lot on the smaller end are government – ESA and the like – or other nations that don’t have indigenous launch services that will buy a launch on a Rockot” or other type of smaller launch vehicle.

And demand is likely not going to grow in the near term.

“I don’t think you are going to see explosive growth, but if you do have a success story like the Falcon 1 that can offer small launch services at a much lower cost that is available now, you may see a little bit of additional demand, particularly from the university side and perhaps the commercial side,” Foust said.

Foust added that there likely will be some growth in the coming years, particularly when Orbcomm begins replacing its satellite fleet.

Orbcomm “probably will use several small launch vehicles to do that much in the same way they used Pegasus to launch their original system,” Foust said. “So there will be a little bit of commercial demand there. There also maybe is a little bit of university/non-profit, perhaps government-funded research demand. You are not going to see orders of magnitude growth. You may go from a few launches per vehicle per year to four or five.”

Replacement Satellite

The destruction of CryoSat is major loss to the scientific community in Europe, as it will be unable to answer certain questions about the thickness of polar ice sheets and sea ice

“The loss was a deep disappointment, because a lot of work has gone into this satellite, not only by the industry but also by the scientists,” said Volker Liebig, director of earth observation at ESA. “I feel really sorry for the scientists who have dedicated five to six years of work into this. It is a real loss. These are urgent scientific questions that need answering. This is a very heavy loss for scientific community. The questions, we wanted this mission to answer, will now be open for a few more years.”

It would take about three years to prepare and launch a similar spacecraft, Liebig said. The original mission was priced at 135 million euros ($162 million), including the three years of operation. Replacements would have to be found for some components that are no longer in production, but the ground segment would not have to be modified, saving some costs. A decision on funding another mission is in the hands of European member states, who are scheduled to meet in December in Berlin and could make their decision before the end of the year, he said.

CryoSat was considered a high-priority mission within ESA’s Earth observation program, and Liebig said that other work could be delayed to accommodate a replacement CryoSat spacecraft. “Depending on the position of the member states, we might have to postpone other activities,” he said. “I am ready to do that because this mission had a high priority. Five years ago, this had a high priority and this has not changed until now, because we have no other missions that could answer the questions that CryoSat could.”

Liebig also remains confident in the Rockot vehicle. “I don’t think we will change launch vehicles, because with these type of launchers, there are not so many launchers available for a fixed cost,” he said. “The process of adapting to the launch has to be taken into consideration, as we are well down the development road. This launcher also has a very good history.”

–Mark Holmes & Gregory Twachtman

(Franca Morgia, ESA, e-mail, Franca.Morgia@esa.int; Jeff Foust, Futron, 301/347- 3405)