Week of Feb. 28 – March 6, 2003
Percentage Change

Symbol
March 6 Price
One Week
One Month
Three Month
Year to Date
Operators
APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
1.60
2.6
1.9
(15.8)
(7.0)
ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
11.70
(4.2)
(5.5)
(14.3)
2.7
BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
39.99
3.3
4.7
1.3
(0.2)
ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
29.05
10.4
15.9
47.8
30.5
GENERAL ELECTRIC GE
23.95
2.5
4.1
(7.2)
(1.6)
GILAT COMMUNICATIONS GICOF
0.10
(42.9)
(33.8)
(33.3)
GLOBALSTAR TELECOM GSTRF
0.06
(15.3)
(10.3)
(32.2)
17.3
HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
9.95
0.2
(0.3)
(10.8)
(7.0)
IRIDIUM WORLD COMM IRIDF
0.11
2.4
2.4
(28.3)
(2.3)
LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
0.32
(13.5)
(11.1)
(33.3)
(25.6)
NEWS CORP NWS
24.09
(2.5)
(6.7)
(11.6)
(8.2)
NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
4.10
(3.8)
1.5
26.2
(1.2)
PANAMSAT SPOT
13.15
0.9
(2.4)
(29.4)
(10.2)
PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
0.16
6.7
6.7
PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
15.49
(8.4)
12.7
38.2
18.2
SES GLOBAL SES.LU
4.45
(5.3)
(6.3)
(35.7)
(30.5)
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
0.48
(38.3)
(49.4)
(40.6)
(24.8)
XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
4.58
2.3
15.9
55.8
70.3
Operators Index
100.00
(6.1)
(1.8)
(6.5)
(0.3)
Manufacturers
ANDREW ANDW
7.49
(1.8)
(17.9)
(32.5)
(27.1)
BALL BLL
51.13
(1.9)
(4.4)
4.7
(0.1)
BOEING BA
26.16
(6.0)
(14.7)
(20.6)
(20.7)
COM DEV INTL *CDV
0.79
(7.1)
(17.7)
(42.8)
(20.2)
GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
0.30
(23.1)
(14.3)
(34.8)
(23.1)
GLOBECOM GCOM
3.02
(5.9)
(15.4)
(13.7)
(19.5)
HARRIS HRS
30.79
3.0
1.4
19.9
17.1
HONEYWELL HON
21.90
(4.5)
(8.9)
(10.0)
(8.8)
KVH KVHI
10.24
4.3
(6.7)
13.7
19.1
LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
44.57
(2.9)
(11.9)
(12.6)
(22.8)
LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
1.54
2.0
(3.1)
(9.9)
22.2
MOTOROLA MOT
8.05
(1.3)
2.9
(18.3)
(6.9)
NERA NERAY
0.89
5.1
(20.2)
(28.5)
(17.8)
NII NORSAT INTL NSATF
0.96
1.1
6.7
(2.0)
(3.5)
ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
5.77
3.2
5.7
27.9
36.7
QUALCOMM QCOM
34.98
4.5
(3.6)
(11.6)
(3.9)
RAYTHEON RTN
25.42
(7.5)
(16.1)
(9.9)
(17.3)
ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
18.64
(5.3)
(9.6)
(9.9)
(19.9)
SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
12.39
(0.9)
3.7
(2.8)
4.5
STM WIRELESS STMI
0.01
(75.0)
(97.7)
(98.6)
(97.5)
TITAN TTN
7.95
(0.5)
(28.4)
(25.7)
(23.6)
TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
16.86
1.1
5.0
25.4
35.0
VIASAT VSAT
10.75
(1.3)
(3.2)
(3.5)
(6.8)
Manufacturers Index
100.00
(5.3)
(11.7)
(12.9)
(8.9)
Nasdaq Composite Index COMP
1,302.89
(0.1)
0.1
(7.6)
(2.4)
S & P 500 SP50
822.10
(0.7)
(2.5)
(9.3)
(6.6)
SN Financial Ticker Index*
100.00
(5.6)
(7.3)
(10.1)
(5.2)

* A composite index; all indices are capitalization-weighted, with a base value of 100 on 1/2/96.

Wall Street Analysis

By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities

EchoStar Communications Corp. [DISH] soundly whipped cable TV once again with its fourth quarter subscriber additions. EchoStar and rival satellite TV service provider DirecTV Inc. together captured 96 percent of net multichannel video subscriber additions in the fourth quarter.

The results show no sign that multivideo service subscribers are ready to bolt for new digital cable services.

Of the net new satellite TV subscribers, EchoStar nabbed 61 percent, while DirecTV snagged the remaining 39 percent.

During the fourth quarter, the “Big 7” cable operators netted only 29,000 new subscribers for basic service, compared to 656,000 for the two satellite TV players. Even the meager 29,000 marked the first time in the last three quarters that cable subscribership grew, rather than shrank. Our analysis shows that basic subscribers for the Big 7 fell by 482,000 in the second quarter, followed by an additional loss of 151,000 subscribers in the third quarter.

Has cable given up the game? Hardly. Cable has taken a different strategy: 1) continue raising prices, and 2) sell more services to existing customers. Our January price analysis showed cable typically charges 18 to 29 percent more than satellite TV for comparable programming packages. Given that cable still has an 80 percent market share, relative to satellites’ 20 percent, it makes more sense to raise prices than to enter a price war with satellite rivals.

On the services side, cable is pushing add-on products to its basic service. The cable industry’s new metric – net revenue generating units (NRGUs), which separately counts TV subscriptions, cable modem subscriptions and telephony subscriptions – showed an increase of 2.4 million in the fourth quarter. The cable industry’s strategy appears to be working, even while satellite TV subscribership continues to grow.

Satellite and cable are headed in different directions in the short term. Satellite plans to offer the best price for a package of video services. Cable plans to offer an attractive bundle of services at a premium price. This avoidance of direct competition promises continued growth for satellite TV over the coming year.

Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at tom.watts@sgcowen.com. Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.

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