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For the better part of a decade, the promise of satellite-to-handset connectivity has sat somewhere between trial and theory. With the first commercial direct-to-device (D2D) constellations now scaling up and 3GPP standards maturing,  it will become harder for users to distinguish between terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks (NTNs), with connectivity blending seamlessly between the two.

This convergence has become a strategic imperative. Network coverage is still one of the main purchase drivers for subscribers and mobile and satellite operators are aligning to build unified, resilient networks that delivers seamless global coverage, especially in underserved regions. By enabling D2D access, expanding market reach and unlocking new consumer and enterprise use cases, this shift is poised to reshape the connectivity landscape and help connect the estimated 300 million people still outside the reach of mobile broadband coverage

The market for satellite-enabled connectivity is now entering a new phase. With constellations expanding and NTN-compatible devices advancing, integration efforts are increasing. The spotlight is now on how NTNs can be embedded within the core of the 5G and IoT ecosystem.

However, as is often the case, progress comes with pressure. Yes, exciting new possibilities are emerging, but so will the challenges of achieving scale and maintaining alignment across such a fast-evolving ecosystem. Inevitably, the industry’s response during the next couple of years will decide what kind of connected world takes shape  and how the race to revenue is won.

Direct-to-Device: A Multi-Billion Dollar Market Emerges

As investment accelerates, the D2D market is forecast to  increase to a $30 billion revenue opportunity for telecoms operators by 2035. This signals a fast-maturing ecosystem where clear leaders are now emerging.

Starlink has already established itself as the dominant constellation, with 9,400 satellites in orbit, a growing number of which are equipped with D2D capabilities.. Their vertically integrated model spans satellite manufacturing, launch services and network operations. In turn, this provides strategic advantages that extend far beyond the first-mover status. These include end-to-end control of the supply chain, reduced time-to-market, and increased flexibility over pricing models.

AST SpaceMobile is another major player. It’s going down the MNO partnership route through its BlueWalker platform, aiming to deliver mobile-grade connectivity directly to handsets via a planned constellation of 60 satellites. AST SpaceMobile partner AT&T is the latest MNO that has committed to delivering D2D services in the first half of 2026, initially in beta mode for selected customers. Others, such as Iridium, Viasat, Lynk, and Sateliot are carving out roles in specific regions or specialized applications. It’s no longer a single race for dominance but a field of different strategies serving distinct needs.

Thanks to a marked increase in D2D-capable launches through 2026 – supported by growing handset integration and standardization across the ecosystem – by the end of the year, many of these constellations will have moved from beta to broad commercial coverage, offering voice and low-speed data to consumers across multiple regions. In addition, recent findings from a Viasat and GSMA Intelligence survey reveal that consumers are already willing to pay a premium for NTN services, underlining strong market demand as the technology becomes available.

Vertical Integration: The New Competitive Advantage

A clear divide is emerging between vertically integrated players like Starlink, who essentially control their full value chain, and those that don’t. Starlink’s end-to-end model shows the advantage of controlling every stage of the process, from launch to connectivity. The recent acquisition of EchoStar spectrum will only serve to strengthen that position.

Amazon Leo, while still in early rollout, benefits from Amazon’s vast infrastructure and logistics network. Integration with AWS and Amazon’s e-commerce businesses creates opportunities that pure-play satellite operators cannot easily replicate, such as edge-to-cloud connectivity and worldwide distribution.

It’s clear then: for smaller operators, scale is now the challenge and many will need partnerships or mergers to survive as investment demands rise. Further consolidation appears increasingly inevitable following recent high profile M&A activity such as Viasat’s acquisition of Inmarsat, Eutelsat and OneWeb’s merger, SES’s acquisition of Intelsat as well as the proposed merger of Omnispace and Lynk. The companies that thrive will be those able to integrate services and entire ecosystems, not just physical satellites.

IoT: Quietly Leading NTN’s Market Momentum

While consumer services attract the most attention, much of the real progress is taking place across IoT. The next phase of 5G-Advanced standards (the pending 3GPP Release 19) will expand support for NTN IoT and enable low-power, wide-area connections across sectors that depend on reliability more than speed.

Sectors where remote connectivity is critical like agriculture, transport, and logistics are already proving the value of ubiquitous, low-bandwidth connectivity. Iridium’s new IoT services are now live, while Amazon’s Kuiper project remains in early development. Because these use cases don’t require the complex spectrum negotiations that burden consumer services, they show how NTNs can deliver measurable economic value before mass-market D2D adoption arrives.

This part of the market will likely grow fastest. It’s where satellite connectivity makes the most practical sense, connecting remote fields, offshore rigs, and isolated energy infrastructure in ways terrestrial networks never could.

Apple the Catalyst: The iPhone Partnership Everyone Must Match

Apple’s partnership with Globalstar has further moved the idea of satellite connectivity from niche to mainstream, marking a defining shift for the entire handset industry. While the feature set is currently limited to messaging, roadside assistance and geo-location in effect it is turning every future iPhone into a satellite-ready device.

Boasting such market dominance (there are nearly 2 billion iPhones in use), Apple’s technology decisions invariably set de facto standards, meaning this shift will change expectations for everyone. Component suppliers, chipmakers, and software developers are all re-engineering around the assumption that NTN connectivity will be part of everyday user experience.

It’s a subtle but defining moment when a safety feature becomes an expectation. By bringing satellite connectivity into the consumer mainstream, Apple has essentially brought industry adoption forward by several years.

Building a Unified and Integrated Connectivity Ecosystem

The narrative in 2026 must shift from competition to collaboration, from replacement to integration. Satellite networks won’t make terrestrial infrastructure obsolete. Instead, they will complement existing networks; filling coverage gaps, providing resilience, and enabling use cases that traditional infrastructure cannot economically address.

Achieving that vision will depend on cooperation across the entire ecosystem. Operators and satellite providers must align commercial and technical models, regulators must enable innovation while ensuring fair access, and standards bodies must keep interoperability at the centre of every advance.

Today, technology readiness is no longer the barrier. Partnerships and policy will now decide the pace of progress. What happens next will determine how far the next era of connectivity reaches.

Tim Hatt, is head of Research and Consulting at GSMA Intelligence, which provides the global mobile ecosystem with comprehensive insights, forecasts, and research.