Photo: NASA

For decades, space dominance was defined by how high and how far nations could go. Modern warfare is changing that equation, bringing the fight closer to Earth. Some of the most critical battles for intelligence, defense and security won’t take place in deep space or Geostationary Orbit (GEO) —they will unfold in Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO), just 200 to 450 kilometers above the surface.

This isn’t just a shift in altitude; it’s a fundamental rethinking of how space operations will evolve for future conflicts. The U.S. has the opportunity to act now to secure dominance in this domain before its adversaries do.

Why VLEO is a Game-Changer for National Security

The race for space dominance is no longer just about exploration — it’s about survival. Adversaries are rapidly advancing Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons, from kinetic missiles to cyber warfare and directed energy attacks, capable of disabling critical assets in minutes. A single strike could trigger cascading debris fields, rendering entire proliferated orbital layers unusable and upending global security. Nations are forced to rethink their approach, moving from static, high-value targets to more agile, resilient architectures. That shift is already playing out, for example, Australia recently scrapped plans for a geostationary satellite, fearing ASAT threats could render it obsolete before it even launched.

VLEO is redefining modern defense operations with advantages that traditional orbits can’t match. While satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), and Geostationary Orbit (GEO) remain vulnerable to ASAT weapons, VLEO satellites’ proximity to Earth enables ultra-low latency communications and as a result, ensures near-instantaneous command and control, which is critical for missile defense, battlefield coordination, and secure Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance ISR operations. The rapid orbital decay and unpredictable movement of debris in VLEO make these satellites more difficult to detect, track and target, enhancing survivability in an era of contested space.

Beyond its tactical benefits, VLEO is a cost-effective alternative to traditional satellite architectures. With advancements in propulsion and autonomous navigation, it’s becoming more feasible to deploy, replace and maneuver these satellites. And the market also sees potential. Investments are surging—Juniper Research projects the market will grow from $17 billion in 2024 to $220 billion by 2027. By 2030, the number of operational satellites in VLEO is expected to exceed 620, a dramatic rise from the handful of planned assets in 2025.

The Challenges of Operating in VLEO

VLEO offers major advantages, but sustaining operations at this altitude is no small feat. Satellites contend with intense atmospheric drag as compared to other traditional earth orbits, accelerating orbital decay and demanding near-constant propulsion adjustments to stay in orbit. Without highly efficient propulsion and reliable launch systems, VLEO satellites have shorter lifespans, requiring a continuous stream of replacements to maintain coverage without novel technologies.

Launch poses another hurdle. Unlike LEO and other traditional orbits, VLEO lacks a dedicated launch infrastructure. In addition to redirecting ongoing commercial launches to VLEO, modifying sounding rockets — traditionally used for suborbital research — to serve as cost-effective, repeatable launch platforms is a promising solution but requires resources — or incentives — not yet prioritized. Smaller orbital launch vehicles offer a promising delivery to VLEO, if adequate investment is made to procure dedicated rides otherwise purposed for LEO ridesharing.

The Plan for U.S. Operations in VLEO

Despite the challenges, VLEO remains a promising and strategically valuable frontier. With advancements in propulsion, launch technology and resilient materials, this low-altitude orbit could play a major role in the future of satellite operations. The race for space dominance is not about who can go the highest, it’s about who can operate with precision, agility and resilience in an increasingly contested environment. Those who fail to adapt, risk losing control of the skies and the ability to defend against emerging threats in real time.

As global interest in this domain accelerates, those who effectively integrate VLEO into their broader space strategy will be best positioned for the future. The coming years will determine how this domain evolves, and collaboration across industry and government will be essential in shaping its long-term success.

To establish leadership in this domain, the U.S. should focus on the establishment and maintenance of a dominant presence in VLEO. To do this, investment in propulsion and materials that enable long-term operations in this challenging space region is required as is significant investment in the development of launch vehicles dedicated to deliver payloads to this region.

Additionally, as VLEO activity increases, congestion and collision risks could increase, making effective space traffic management (STM) essential. Even though VLEO naturally allows for organic ‘self-cleaning’ and end of life disposal, without proactive debris mitigation strategies and global coordination, the environment could become unsustainable. However, with proper foresight and STM processes in place to manage traffic, including assets descending from higher orbits into VLEO as part of their regular disposal process, the benefits of operating in VLEO would far outweigh the downfalls. Expanding investment in on-orbit active debris modeling and mitigation will be crucial to ensuring that VLEO remains a viable, long-term operating domain.

As we stand at the cusp of this new frontier, the U.S. has a unique opportunity to lead the way in shaping the future of space operations. By investing in VLEO technologies, fostering public-private partnerships, and developing robust STM systems, we can ensure our continued leadership in space. Our ability to operate effectively in VLEO will not only enhance our national security but also drive innovation, create new opportunities, and maintain our strategic advantage in space.

Chad Fish is president and general manager of Orion Space Solutions. Will Armijo is vice president of Space Systems for Orion Space Solutions, an Arcfield company