[Satellite TODAY Insider 08-22-11] A Russian State Commission of inquiry has been established to investigate an anomaly that occurred during the Aug. 18 launch of the $265 million Express AM-4 satellite, International Launch Services (ILS) announced Aug. 18.

   “ILS will release details when data becomes available. In parallel with the State Commission, ILS will form its own Failure Review Oversight Board (FROB). The FROB will review the commission’s final report and corrective action plan, in accordance with U.S. and Russian government export control regulation,” ILS said in a company statement.

   Shortly after the launch Wednesday on a Khrunichev Proton-M rocket, a failure was acknowledged on the rocket’s Briz-M upper stage, which has been blamed for the loss. Depending on the nature of the failure, Raymond James analyst Chris Quilty said the investigation could range from as little as three weeks to as much as six months. “Given the exceptional operating history of the Proton rocket family, we suspect the stand-down will extend for a period of weeks rather than months,” Quilty told Satellite TODAY Insider.

   Thursday’s Proton launch failure may have other consequences, however, for the rocket’s international customers, according to Quilty. “[The failure] will almost assuredly trigger a further launch delay for [ViaSat’s] ViaSat-1 satellite, which was most recently scheduled to launch on Sept. 29. Delays of this nature are not uncommon in the satellite industry, but the ViaSat-1 program has suffered an unusual number of delays since the program was first announced in January 2008 with a targeted launch date in early2011.”

   In December 2010, a Proton rocket using a different upper-stage engine, failed after engineers over-filled the fuel tank, which caused the total loss of three Russian Glonass navigation satellites. The investigation was concluded quickly, causing only a three-week delay in the Proton launch manifest.

   In January 2011, however, ViaSat-1 was damaged while being moved for testing by its manufacturer Space Systems/Loral, causing management to push out the expected launch date from spring 2011 to summer 2011. The launch date was then pushed out further due to scheduling conflicts with other priority launches, which Quilty believes may include the lost Express AM-4 satellite.

   “While it is still too early to forecast the financial impact of this delay, we anticipate that ViaSat will clearly experience higher unabsorbed costs in the near-term as well as a delay in the revenue-generating capability of the ViaSat-1 satellite,” Quilty said. “We estimate a delay of greater than four to six weeks could have a material impact on full-year 2012, but will likely have a modest impact on full-year 2013.”