North Korea May Be Poised To Launch Another Taepo Dong-2 Ballistic Missile Toward Japan Or Hawaii In Early July

Obama Says U.S. Poised For ‘Any Contingencies’

Although the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) missile shield was built to take down incoming long-range North Korean missiles, the Department of Defense (DOD) is emphasizing the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system if it is necessary to take down a missile North Korea is about to launch.

THAAD hits enemy missiles at the last moment as they descend toward a target, while the GMD system hits incoming enemy weapons earlier, in the middle of their flight trajectories, leaving an extra opportunity to hit the missile before it reaches U.S. or allied targets.

The GMD system will, however, be on alert as North Korea prepares to launch the missile.

President Obama said the United States is prepared for "any contingencies" that the North Korean launch might pose.

A key difference between the two systems: the DOD marked the GMD for a funding cut in the upcoming fiscal year ending Sept. 30, 2010, while the THAAD system is favored with full funding of $1.1 billion. Congress now is considering those funding levels. (Please see separate stories in this issue.)

That decision to use THAAD instead of leaving the job solely to the GMD was made as North Korea prepares to launch another long-range Taepo Dong-2 missile that may be aimed toward Hawaii. North Korea may be about to launch another Taepo Dong-2 long-range missile, according to a Kyodo News report from Seoul.

This Taepo Dong-2 would be an improved version of the weapon, according to the report.

The DOD responded to intelligence indicating an imminent launch by moving THAAD units to Hawaii.

This is the second time that the DOD has decided not to rely entirely on the GMD to take down a North Korean missile.

In 2006, North Korea tested a Taepo Dong-2, but it destructed seconds after lifting off from the launch pad. Then, In April this year, North Korea launched another Taepo Dong- 2, and it arced over Japan and flew about 2,000 miles, with both first and second stages functioning well, before the third stage malfunctioned and the missile plummeted into the Pacific. (Please see Space & Missile Defense Report, Monday, April 6, 2009.)

If all three stages function well, the missile may have a range of more than 4,000 miles, sufficient to strike Hawaii.

In that North Korean long-range missile launch earlier this year, the DOD moved Navy ships with Aegis weapon control systems and Standard Missile interceptors into place, rather than have GMD alone at the ready. Ultimately, the sea-based system wasn’t used, because the missile malfunctioned in the final stage, never threatening U.S. territory.

The next launch, which may come early next month, might send the missile toward Hawaii. In its 2006 missile test, North Korea performed the launch on July 4, so this new test might be timed for the third anniversary of that incident.

Under United Nations resolutions, North Korea is not supposed to test intercontinental ballistic missiles. It also isn’t supposed to possess nuclear weapons, although it wields several atomic bombs and recently tested one underground. The North also conducted an underground test in 2006. It recently announced it will begin nuclear reactor construction work. And the North has said if the United States or other nations board and search North Korean ships, hunting for contraband missiles, nuclear devices or other components, Pyongyang will regard that as an act of war. The North today boasted that it is a "proud nuclear power."

The United States, however, has said it will track North Korean ships, but won’t forcibly board and search them. So a Navy surface warfare ship is tracking a ship that left North Korea, but Americans aren’t boarding the vessel. If it reaches a port of call, the question will be whether that nation will permit a boarding party to search the vessel.

In related developments, Obama met at the White House with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, and appeared with him at a joint news conference in a show of unity between Washington and Seoul. Obama condemned Pyongyang moves on nuclear weapons and missiles as "a grave threat." On his way back to Seoul, Lee also has set a hastily-scheduled meeting with top-level Japanese leaders to discuss the impending Taepo Dong-2 missile launch.