Missile defense systems can be useful in deterring aggression against the United States, especially aggression involving nuclear-tipped missiles, and thus should occupy a key position in the U.S. strategic posture, a commission stated.

Missile defense systems, already developed to protect the United States and its allies, do work, the commission report stated. It was prepared with cooperation from the United States Institute of Peace.

U.S. missile defense systems should be geared to defeating missiles from rogue states, rather than attempting to counter weapons that might be fired from major powers such as Russia, according to the report, "America’s Strategic Posture: The Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States" that was written by Chairman William J. Perry, a former defense secretary, Vice Chairman Jim Schlesinger, and others on the panel.

"Missile defenses can play a useful role in supporting the basic objectives of deterrence" of nuclear and missile aggression, the report stated. Missile "defenses that are effective against regional aggressors are a valuable component of the U.S. strategic posture."

Therefore, "The United States should develop and, where appropriate, deploy missile defenses against regional nuclear aggressors, including against limited long-range threats."

That would describe missile capabilities of at least two rogue states: North Korea, which recently launched a Taepo Dong-2 missile that arced over Japan and fell into the Pacific Ocean, and Iran, which launched a satellite using technology similar to that of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Half an hour later, the satellite was over the United States.

Missile defenses against such long-range enemy missiles "can also be beneficial for limiting damage if deterrence fails," the report observed.

However, given the overblown Russian reaction explosive rage against a mere 10 missile defense interceptors that the United States would install in Europe, Washington should take pains not to further irritate Moscow. Top Russian leaders alleged, wrongly, that the 10 interceptors were designed to take down Russian ICBMs, which American leaders have noted would be an impossibility.

"The United States should ensure that its actions do not lead Russia or China to take actions that increase the threat to the United States and its allies and friends," the report recommended. Russia, for example, now claims it is developing an ICBM with multiple warheads that can defeat U.S. missile defense systems.

Against smaller nations, however, the report says that development of U.S. missile defenses can cause rogue states to abandon missile and nuclear development programs, the report found:

"Ballistic missile defense capabilities can play a useful role in support of the basic objectives of deterrence, broadly defined, and damage limitation against limited threats. … These capabilities may contribute to deterrence by raising doubts in a potential aggressor’s mind about the prospects of success in attempts to coerce or attack others. They may contribute to assurance of allies, by increasing their protection and also reducing the risks that the United States would face in protecting them against a regional aggressor. Defenses against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles are seen by some U.S. allies as increasingly important to their security."

Here, the report is referring to nations such as Iran and North Korea, both of them isolated nations facing global sanctions that have failed to stop them from pursuing both nuclear and long-range missile programs.

Responding to the resultant risk, the United States has pressed for missile defense capabilities to knock down weapons these nations might launch.

Those countries are dangerous, the report found. "Today, the missile threats of most immediate concern originate from countries such as North Korea and Iran which have deployed short- to medium-range ballistic missiles, and are developing long-range missiles," according to the commissioners.

They detailed the rising threats posed by those rogue regimes, as they gain increasingly advanced technologies.

"For example, Iran has several hundred mobile short and medium-range missiles that could threaten U.S. allies and bases, and the recent launch of its Safir-2 Space Launch Vehicle demonstrated some technologies necessary for the development of a crude long-range missile," the report noted.

A continent away, "North Korea has hundreds of mobile short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, and has under development liquid-fueled rockets that could serve as a space launch vehicle for a satellite or as a first-generation long-range missile," the report observed. That referred to the Taepo Dong-2.

Some U.S. allies, facing far more serious missile threats than the United States, see great value in missile defense systems, the report continued.

"Israel and Japan have demonstrated the value they ascribe to missile defense by joining in cooperative programs with the United States," the report observed.

For example, the United States supplied Israel with a sophisticated radar to spot incoming missiles, and The Boeing Co. [BA] is working with Israel Aerospace Industries, or IAI, on the Arrow missile defense program. Israelis live in daily fear of missiles from Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and most especially Iran, which has long-range missiles able to strike inside Israel, and a nuclear development program.

On the other side of the globe, Japan is menaced by both China, which has hundreds of missiles of all ranges and warheads, and North Korea, which possesses atomic weapons and has detonated one in an underground test.

Japan is procuring Aegis weapon controls (Lockheed Martin Corp. [LMT]) and Standard Missile interceptors (Raytheon Co. [RTN]) for several of its ships.

"The Commission strongly supports continued missile defense cooperation with allies," the report stated. Such cooperative effort "lowers costs for all and strengthens the potential for collective defense."

While critics and foes of the Missile Defense Agency and its missile shield systems claim they wouldn’t work in a realistic attack, the commission found that in fact U.S. missile defense systems do provide protection.

"The United States has fielded a ballistic missile defense system capable of defending against these short- to medium-range missiles. U.S. missile defense systems in development and deployment, including the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC) 3, and the Aegis Combat System, have had numerous successful flight tests.

"The United States currently plans to complete deployment of 96 THAAD and 133 Standard Missile 3 interceptors. These numbers should be reviewed if the threat from North Korean or Iranian missiles increases."

President Obama released a budget that would provide increased funding to systems such as Aegis and THAAD.

However, the Obama budget cut funding for various missile defense systems, including the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system, also called the National Missile Defense system. The Boeing Co. [BA] leads the GMD program, which currently is the only U.S. missile defense system to protect America against enemy long-range and ICBM missiles.

Commission members also said this GMD system can work, but were more guarded in their assessment.

"The United States has also fielded a ground-based system intended to defend against small numbers of long-range missiles," the report observed. "This system has demonstrated some capability against unsophisticated threats and should undergo additional system testing to determine its effectiveness against more complex threats that include technologies intended to help in-coming missiles penetrate the defense (so-called penetration aids)."

GMD interceptors repeatedly have knocked down target missiles in tests. But the Obama budget calls for buying no more than 30 of the interceptors, instead of the earlier plan to procure 44.

"Further development and deployment of these long-range defense interceptors should depend on results of these tests and on developments in the ICBM threats facing the United States and its allies," the report stated.

That last comment should aid GMD, given that both Iran and North Korea this year have made major strides in developing longer-range or orbital missile capabilities.

"Research and development should continue on responses to counter limited but more complex threats," the report states. While unclear, that could urge continuation of the Airborne Laser program, which is facing a critical test this year when it will use a high-powered laser for the first time to knock out a target missile.

Don’t Irk Bear, Dragon

At the same time, the report urges U.S. policymakers not to forge any missile defense system effective against the massed might of Chinese or Russian nuclear arsenals.

"For more than a decade the development of U.S. ballistic missile defenses has been guided by the principles of (1) protecting against limited strikes while (2) taking into account the legitimate concerns of Russia and China about strategic stability," the commission observed.

"These remain sound guiding principles. Defenses sufficient to sow doubts in Moscow or Beijing about the viability of their deterrents could lead them to take actions that increase the threat to the United States and its allies and friends. Both Russia and China have expressed concerns."

In the case of Russia, that was vast understatement, with Moscow threatening to use missiles to annihilate the planned European Missile Defense system if it is built.

"Current U.S. plans for missile defense should not call into question the viability of Russia’s nuclear deterrent," the report recommended. "China sees its concerns as more immediate, given the much smaller size of its nuclear force. U.S. assessments indicate that a significant operational impact on the Chinese deterrent would require a larger and more capable defense than the United States has plans to construct, but China may already be increasing the size of its ICBM force in response to its assessment of the U.S. missile defense program."

China recently has deployed a road-mobile land based ICBM with a 7,000-mile range, able to strike targets in the United States. Also, Beijing has deployed the Jin Class submarine. It has nuclear power, with consequent endless range. And it packs nuclear-tipped missiles with a range of almost 5,000 miles, so that 2,000 miles out in the Pacific Ocean a Chinese sub could launch a missile and strike New York City or Washington, D.C.

But for rogue nations, missile defense systems are valuable and needed, the report finds. "The Commission supports a substantial role for defenses against short- to medium- range missiles. Defenses against longer range missiles should be based on their demonstrated effectiveness and the projected threat from North Korea and Iran. Defenses against these limited threats should be designed to avoid giving Russia or China a reason to increase their strategic threat to the United States or its allies."

Coming to the bottom line, the report recommends a few steps:

"1. The United States should develop and, where appropriate, deploy missile defenses against regional nuclear aggressors, including against limited long-range threats. It should also develop effective capabilities to defend against increasingly complex missile threats.

"2. While the missile threats posed by potential regional aggressors are countered, the United States should ensure that its actions do not lead Russia or China to take actions that increase the threat to the United States and its allies and friends.

"3. The United States should strengthen international cooperation for missile defense, including with allies, but also with Russia.

"4. The United States should also work with Russia and China to control advanced missile technology transfer."

Iran, especially, is thought to have benefited from missile technology transferred from Russia, China and North Korea.

The threat facing the United States is the reason missile defense efforts must forge ahead, the report continued.

"Nuclear terrorism against the United States and other nations is a very serious threat. This requires a much more concerted international response, one which the United States must lead."

Aside from missile defense, the report said those defensive systems must be paired with a good offense, warning that the existing U.S. nuclear capabilities are decaying and must be renovated. It also sees value in continuing the U.S. nuclear-capable triad of long-range bombers, ICBMs and Navy submarines carrying nuclear missiles. (Please see separate story in this issue.)

To read the 180-page report in full, please go to http://media.usip.org/reports/strat_posture_report.pdf on the Web.