European Missile Defense System Urgently Needed

Worrisome Threats Uttered By Iranian Leader Cited

European Interceptor Design Not Risky, Won’t Involve Major Changes From Already-Proven Rocket Components: Obering

There is no time to waste in erecting a European Missile Defense (EMD) shield, because Iran will have an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of striking targets in the United States by 2015 to 2017, the top U.S. missile defense leader said.

Lt. Gen. Henry "Trey" Obering III, the Missile Defense Agency director, said Defense Intelligence Agency reports show that Iran is busy developing an ICBM capability.

And Iran might develop that capability sooner than expected, announcing that it is launching a space program. Such a program would involve developing many of the same capabilities that are required for an ICBM.

"What is … worrisome is when they announce a space launch program," he said.

For example, that would include developing missiles with multiple stages and advanced missile control and guidance software systems, along with nozzles to control direction of the weapon, he said.

The United States must "keep an eye" on the rising Iranian threat, he said.

A slide in his presentation showed a projected Iranian ICBM capable of striking cities in the United States being developed by 2010 to 2015, so the 2015 to 2017 estimate may be highly optimistic.

His comments, responding to journalists’ questions at a Pentagon briefing on the U.S. multi-layered missile defense program, came as agreement on installation of the EMD system hasn’t even been concluded. The system is to encompass a radar in the Czech Republic and interceptors in silos in Poland. Even if construction began in April-June of 2010, the EMD wouldn’t be operational until April-June of 2012.

While the United States has signed an agreement with the Czechs to install the radar (approval by the Czech parliament still must be provided), negotiations with the Poles have dragged on, with Polish demands for hefty U.S. military aid a sticking point.

At the same time, Congress has forbidden site construction to begin until Czech and Polish approvals are in hand, including legislative green lights. Other work in the EMD program, meanwhile, can proceed.

Also, lawmakers have questioned whether modifications to the design of interceptor missiles in the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system already installed in Alaska and California will work well in the European system. They want time-consuming testing of the European interceptors design.

But Obering stressed that there is no untested, experimental technology, no high-risk elements in the European interceptor. Essentially, it is the same as the three-stage GMD interceptor, with one stage of the rocket removed, and a few other minor alterations, he noted.

The Iranian threat to Europe and the United States is proved by the sort of missile capabilities that Tehran is developing, capabilities that are far more than might be required for any regional conflict, Obering said.

Iran at one time had primitive Scud missiles with limited ranges that could strike Kuwait or Turkey, he said. In the 1990s, however, Iran obtained the medium-range Shahab 3 capable of striking Israel.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has vowed that Israel will be wiped from the map, and said Israel soon shall cease to exist.

Iran has tested multiple missiles in salvo launches, and fired a missile from a submerged submarine. (Please see full story in Space & Missile Defense Report, Monday, July 14, 2008.)

A missile with a range of 1,300 to 1,500 kilometers (807.8 to 932.1 miles) can launch from Iran to strike both Israel and U.S. military bases in the region, he noted.

But Iran persists in pushing for ever longer-range missiles, ranges far beyond those required to strike Israeli targets, Obering noted.

At this point, he said, the United States and leaders in Europe are asking why Iran wishes to wield missiles with even longer ranges, and there are no reassuring answers.

The key point is that the United States must move swiftly to install and bring the EMD system online, because it will be too late to begin that effort if Iran develops long range or ICBM capabilities first, Obering said.

The United States must not be left in a position where an Iranian threat arises and there is no U.S. ability to block that threat, he said.

He specifically cited worries raised by the threats uttered by Ahmadinejad against Israel.