Nearly two years after announcing it would launch rockets from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, Sea Launch LLC unveiled July 26 that Panamsat Corp. would be the first to use the Land Launch service.

Panamsat will use Land Launch to place its PAS-11 satellite in orbit in the second quarter 2007. The PAS-11 is an Orbital Sciences Corp.-built 2,500-kilogram Star-2 spacecraft that will be located at 43 degrees West to provide television distribution services to Latin America.

The Land Launch service uses the same rocket that is used by Sea Launch, the Zenit-3SL. However, its payload capacity shifts depending on where the rocket is launched. From the Sea Launch floating equatorial platform in the Pacific Ocean, the Zenit-3SL serves as a heavy-lift launch vehicle, carrying payloads between 4,000 and 6,000 kilograms into orbit.

That same rocket, designated Zenit-3SLB and launched from Baikonur, can carry payloads between 2,500 and 4,000 kilograms into geosynchronous transfer orbit, and heavier payloads to inclined or lower orbits. A two-stage configuration of the same rocket also will be available for launching heavy payloads, or groups of payloads, to low earth orbit. Payloads and vehicles will be processed and launched from existing Zenit facilities at the Baikonur launch site.

Paula Korn, Sea Launch spokeswoman, said it was possible to launch a medium weight payload from the equatorial platform, “but we can offer better prices for medium weight launches [from Baikonur]. It is not really worth launching a smaller payload on Sea Launch.”

A Crowded Market

Jeff Foust, launch industry analyst at Futron Corp., noted that Land Launch could be going head-to-head with both Arianespace and International Launch Services (ILS) for medium-weight payload launch contracts.

“The primary near-term competitor will be Arianespace, which is offering Soyuz launches from Kourou that can carry geostationary payloads of up to about 3,000 kilograms,” Foust told Satellite News. “ILS also has proposed offering the Angara 3, which is in the same mass class, to commercial customers later this decade, depending on when the Russian government completes development of this vehicle. It’s also possible that SpaceX may enter the market with either its proposed Falcon 5 or a future derivative of that vehicle.”

However, given that Sea Launch is using existing technology for its Land Launch service, its chances of being successful are improved, Foust said.

“If these were entirely new companies with new vehicles, there would be serious doubts about the sustainability of such a venture,” Foust said. “However… Sea Launch is effect using existing vehicles — the Zenit-3SLB is only a slightly modified version of the Zenit-3SL — that are well-known and trusted by the industry. It’s a lot easier to make it commercially when you are basically just trying to sell a couple more launches than if you’re trying to build up a new business and a new vehicle.”

A First Customer

Panamsat took the first mission with Land Launch based on the reputation of the Zenit-3SL vehicle.

“First, the Sea Launch vehicle has established an excellent reliability record, and we feel that this record is directly transferable to Land Launch as well, given it is the same vehicle,” Panamsat President and COO Jim Frownfelter told Satellite News.

“Second, because the Land Launch is the same rocket as the Sea Launch, Land Launch has significantly better performance than the standard Ariane dual launch mission capability,” Frownfelter added. “This translates into extended lifetime for the satellite. Third, the Land Launch is a dedicated launch vehicle. This means that scheduling and manifesting is easier/more dependable because you are not dependent on a co-passenger’s schedule problems. Finally there are few launch vehicles in the market today that can efficiently accommodate our [smaller] payloads. An entry like Land Launch provides contingency, flexibility, and price competition in the industry for this size payload.”

A Financial Boost

For Sea Launch, using its existing technology to address a new market translates into additional revenue opportunities above and beyond the existing business plan for Sea Launch.

“We are not investing in” Land Launch, Korn said. “We are not building new hardware. We are taking something that exits and optimizing heritage systems, including the launch infrastructure.”

Since no new investments are needed for Land Launch missions, the upshot for Sea Launch is any revenues from Land Launch are realized as a bonus above the company’s business plan. “We are anticipating some profit out of [Land Launch],” Korn said. “How much will depend on how many launches we have.” Korn declined to give specific details on the financial expectations of the Land Launch service. “We expect to have two or three [Land Launches] a year. We can accommodate more, but if we get two or three a year, that would be satisfactory.” The Land Launch missions would be in addition to the four Sea Launch missions per year under the company’s business plan, though six missions a year are the sustainable capacity, pending on-time satellite deliveries.

But getting even two to three launches in a highly competitive launch industry could be challenging, particularly because of the limited number of medium-weight satellites that are expected to be launched through 2014. The 2005 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast Report, issued jointly by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration‘s Office Commercial Space Transportation and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee, estimated that from 2005 through 2014, there will be an average 5.8 commercial geostationary satellites launched with a mass between 2,200 kilograms and 4,200 kilograms.

“There also is the potential that, on top of these commercial geostationary launches, [medium-weight payload] launch vehicles could be used for the deployment of replenishment or replacement satellites for Globalstar and Iridium,” Foust said. “However, other than some tentative plans by Globalstar to launch eight ground spares sometime later this decade, any such launches should be considered highly speculative at this time.”

–Gregory Twachtman

(Jeff Foust, Futron, 301/347-3405; Kathryn Lancioni, Panamsat, 203/210-8649; Paula Korn, Sea Launch, 562/499-4729)