Direct broadcast satellite services will dominate capacity usage by the end of the decade, according to a recently released white paper from Futron Corp.

In the report, Futron predicts that from a baseline of 15 percent of total capacity over the United States in 2002, direct broadcast services capacity will represent nearly 60 percent in 2010. Throughout that same period, C- and Ku-band capacity will drop to less than 50 percent combined in 2010. Also, Ka-band satellites will more than double the capacity in orbit over the U.S. between 2002 and 2010.

Futron notes that “all three direct-to-home (DTH) video providers in the United States made impressive capacity purchases,” including EchoStar‘s addition of two more SES Americom satellites to its constellation, DirecTV‘s planned launches of Spaceway 1 and 2 this year and DirecTV 10 and 11 in 2007, and the announcement that Cablevision’s Voom HD satellite television service has contracted with Lockheed Martin for five new Ka-band satellites.

“While the DTH video broadcast market is charging ahead, the traditional fixed services sector has remained relatively flat,” according to Futron. “This sluggish growth in the fixed services market combined with the huge projections for the direct broadcast sector is changing the landscape of satellite capacity over the United States.”

The Ka-band is “starting to show signs of life,” the white paper noted. “Although Ka-band was expected to herald the market for end user broadband satellite services, this market did not emerge…all Ka-band capacity being launched to serve the United States is now intended for DTH video, including the Spaceway and AMC satellites detailed above. This redirection is finally giving Ka-band a purpose.”