XM Satellite Radio [Nasdaq: XMSR] reported “good” first quarter 2003 results, but the company’s projected EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) by year-end may significantly underestimate the company’s potential, wrote Marc Nabi, a Merrill Lynch satellite analyst.

In a research note sent Monday to his clients, Nabi suggested that XM’s subscriber total may well do better than the EBITDA loss of $295 million for year-end 2003 that XM is offering as guidance. Unless advertising expenses are “materially higher” than his projections, Nabi is expecting EBITDA loss for year-end of $285 million.