HONOLULU–As the world’s commercial expendable launch vehicle (ELV) companies struggle to regain their footing following a year of plummeting prices for their services and a series of high-profile rocket failures, some executives here said they do not expect a recovery for this sector for the next 10 years.

“I said it last year and I’ll stick with my prediction today, I think we’re going to see flat sales in [the ELV market] for 10 years,” said Tom Carroll, director of international marketing and sales for Asia-Pacific for International Launch Services (ILS). Carroll made his comments here Monday during a launch vehicle panel session at the Pacific Telecommunications Conference.

Jean Yves Le Gall, chief executive of European launch leader Arianespace, said his company is reaching yet another crossroads: The final Ariane 4 launch scheduled Feb. 11 (carrying the final Intelsat 9-series satellite), and an additional five generic Ariane 5 launches scheduled this year with a possibility of one heavy-lifting 10-ton Ariane 5 ECA launch by the fourth quarter. An Ariane 5 ECA launcher failed in December carrying a Eutelsat satellite, grounding the entire ECA fleet. The inquiry board concluded that the main anomaly issue centered on the nozzle on the Vulcain engine and not with the engine itself, Le Gall said.

–David Bross and Nick Mitsis