Back in the late 1990s, Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites were thought to represent the future of the industry, and vast amounts of press attention were lavished on small LEOs, big LEOs and broadband LEOs. In some ways this was hardly surprising because of the huge amounts of money involved: $5 billion was spent on Iridium, almost as much on Globalstar, and Teledesic was expected to cost at least $10 billion.
Developing workable low cost terminals to track LEO satellites as they move across the sky — which was one of the factors that prevented Teledesic from moving forward — still remains a significant concern.
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Meanwhile, a close examination of OneWeb and SpaceX’s proposals shows that many technical challenges remain to bring their plans to fruition. Developing workable low cost terminals to track LEO satellites as they move across the sky — which was one of the factors that prevented Teledesic from moving forward — still remains a significant concern.
Above all, the biggest unanswered question is whether latency really matters in the end. It didn’t for Iridium and Globalstar, which have not gained a significant competitive edge from their lower latency over GEO systems like Inmarsat.
Overall, I would therefore caution everyone in the satellite sector not to get carried away with enthusiasm for new LEO projects, and especially not to take your eyes off the ball when GEO HTS systems are experiencing such rapid changes in both capabilities and pricing. VS
Tim Farrar has worked as a technology consultant for more than 19 years, specializing in satellite communications and wireless spectrum.
