China and India are huge markets for IFC and in its latest report, the Valour Consultancy looks just how big these markets may become. Interestingly, Valour predicts that the number of connected commercial aircraft in China will reach more than 2,300 by 2035, up from just over 400 today.
At the end of 2025, IFC adoption in China stood at below 10%according to Valour. This is a market ripe for growth. Valour revealed details of its new report on IFC in India and China, released May 14.
Historically, market expansion has been constrained by regulatory complexity, geopolitical considerations, and uncertain return on investment for airlines. However, improving passenger demand for connectivity, clearer airline business cases, and the emergence of new entrants such as Spacesail are expected to accelerate adoption from the early 2030s onward, Valour states.
The report also highlights strong long-term growth potential within India’s IFC market, albeit from a significantly lower starting point. By the end of 2025, less than 30 commercial aircraft in India were equipped with connectivity, representing approximately 3% of the total fleet. Adoption has been constrained by regulatory complexity, airline cost sensitivity, and the dominance of low-cost carriers (LCCs), alongside a fleet mix heavily skewed toward narrowbody aircraft.
Valour Consultancy expects connected aircraft in India to grow in pockets over the next ten years; driven primarily by further deployment activity at Air India and potential future adoption among LCCs. However, the report notes that IFC penetration in India is likely to remain below levels seen in more premium-focused aviation markets.
“China remains one of the most strategically important IFC markets globally, but also one of the most complex. Although adoption has been relatively slow to date, the underlying market fundamentals are compelling. Large-scale, fleetwide rollouts among China’s major state-owned airlines are expected to drive the next wave of growth, alongside increasing recognition of IFC as a passenger experience differentiator,” David Whelan, senior analyst, Valour Consultancy and author of the report, said in a statement.
