Analysts from Frost & Sullivan, NSR (Analysys Mason), and ABI Research previewed the key themes for SATELLITE 2024. ABI Research’s Andrew Cavalier said 2024 marks the entry of Amazon’s Project Kuiper as a new LEO megaconstellation player, and that up to 98 percent of satellites deployed in the next decade will be in LEO.
On which legacy operator is best positioned, Frost & Sullivan’s Pravin Pradeep and ABI’s Cavalier both highlighted Telesat Lightspeed — fully funded, featuring on-orbit processing, beam hopping, phased arrays, and optical ISLs, entering service in 2027. NSR’s Chris Baugh said any operator can compete with a multi-orbit strategy, but some “should actually merge” to achieve scale against Amazon and SpaceX.
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The three main talking points predicted: satellite-telecom convergence; LEO as a national security priority (SDA PWSA, IRIS2); and generative AI with edge computing enabling on-orbit data analysis.
On Starlink’s deals with John Deere, Norwegian Cruise Line, and airlines, Baugh called for a “seismic response” from traditional operators. Cavalier noted that LEO providers are targeting maritime and aviation market share, but GSOs still offer comprehensive coverage.
Analysts’ predictions for the next 12–24 months: more satcom consolidation (Sreekumar), Starship launching regularly and IRIS2 disruption (Baugh), and growing regulatory fragmentation around NTN frequencies (Cavalier). VS
