Satellite executives debated the timing and scale of satellite-to-cell opportunity at SATELLITE 2023, with sharp disagreements on how quickly revenue will materialize.
Matt Desch of Iridium cautioned that the industry is “way overblown in terms of expectations,” predicting converged networks will take 15 years to roll out and that direct-to-device nirvana is “5 to 10 years away.” Charles Miller of Lynk disagreed sharply: “This is happening now. If you have a timeline of doing this in 10 to 15 years, you are going to miss the boat.” Lynk already earns revenue from text messaging in 41 countries and is testing in 19 more, using satellites that cost less than $200,000 to build.
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Jonathan Hofeller of SpaceX acknowledged uncertainty: “We are definitely wrong; we just don’t know how wrong we are.” He said SpaceX’s advantage is its ability to iterate quickly on over 4,000 satellites already in orbit.
Don Clausen of ST Engineering iDirect argued that standards are the prerequisite: “We have to start with a standard and get all the MNOs and MSOs to agree to it.” He noted backhaul remains the primary near-term satellite offering to mobile networks, using a cruise ship as an example where backhaul serves passengers better than direct-to-device.
Clausen concluded with a cultural argument: “MNOs can help us change our culture as an industry. They have learned how to work together and serve their customers. We need them to bring that culture to the satellite industry so we can all work together and agree on a standards-based solution.” VS
