Space is getting more crowded, but the growing risk of a satellite colliding with orbital debris is what economists call “a tragedy of the commons” — it’s no one’s job to fix it. At the same time, the way the U.S. government keeps track of space junk is being radically shaken up, just as the number of objects in orbit is likely to balloon with the launch of LEO mega-constellations.
Two sessions at SATELLITE 2020 examined the problem of space overcrowding and looked at the Trump administration’s decision to move the job of tracking objects in orbit from the Department of Defense (DoD) to the Department of Commerce (DoC). Stephen Earle, FAA space traffic and Air Force interface lead, said collision avoidance is much more complex than it was when current regulations were written in 2006. “It’s like merging onto the highway and it gets more and more difficult as space gets more crowded.”
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The ESA estimates just over 2,200 operational satellites and slightly more dead ones in orbit, with thousands of additional launches planned as LEO constellations come online. Statistical modeling puts 34,000 pieces of orbital debris larger than a fist; over 128 million pieces smaller than a bolt; and an estimated 900,000 pieces in between — the riskiest range, too small to track but large enough to cripple a satellite moving at 17,000 mph.
Tom Stroup, president of the Satellite Industry Association, called orbital debris “a very serious issue” that “potentially affects the sustainability of space, the ability to use it in the future.” A major collision could trigger a collisional cascade — Kessler syndrome — rendering an entire orbital band unusable.
Martin Zhu of the FAA pointed out that safely deorbiting a rocket body can cost $109 million, but designing the launch to avoid the problem costs as little as $68,000. “Preventing things from crashing is a lot more economically feasible than cleaning up afterwards,” said NASA’s Benjamin Reed.
Clare Martin of Astroscale noted active debris removal is “the preserve of the national space institutions.” Zhu concluded: “We need a regulatory leader, or for industry to start self-regulating. Regulations are not just restrictive, they are enabling.” VS
