At the start of the next decade, launches to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) could happen every week, multiple times a week. The number of launch providers developing and fielding new rockets between now and 2020 is such that if even a few reach their anticipated launch cadence, what counts as fast access to space today would seem pithy by tomorrow’s standards.
The groundswell behind this surge in launch activity is the unabated growth of small satellites, ranging from CubeSats with a mass of a few kilograms, to heftier SmallSats amounting to a few hundred kilograms. Miniaturization has made small satellites capable of very advanced missions, and their low cost is spurring on ideation, bringing new private capital, and creating a large demand for launch services.
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Not Your Grandfather’s SmallSat Bubble
“The fundamental difference between now and then is that there is real hardware in orbit now,” says Peter Beck, founder and CEO of Rocket Lab. “The technology improvements between now and then are just enormous.”
Rocket Lab got its start in 2007, but truly entered the spotlight in the summer of 2014 with the revealing of its carbon-composite Electron launch vehicle, capable of delivering 150kg to a 500km Sun-Synchronous Orbit (SSO) for less than $5 million.
“There are literally hundreds of companies around the world who are planning to build business around small satellites,” adds Firefly Space Systems Senior Advisor Andy Bradford.
New Rockets for New Needs
“They have much shorter timeframes for building and deploying their satellite networks,” says Stephane Israel, chairman and CEO of Arianespace. “We need to adjust our launch models to try and accommodate payloads on a shorter timeline.”
Rocket Lab is planning its first test flight of Electron in 2016 once its New Zealand launch site completes construction. After 2016, Rocket Lab plans to launch roughly once every two months for the first quarter of 2017, then transitioning to one a month, and shifting up to two a month in 2018.
Bullish Expectations
“We weren’t expecting to see the level of interest that we have in the Electron launch vehicle,” says Beck. “We thought we would create the capability and then drag the market along with us. It’s been quite the opposite.”
“Many small satellite operators are attracting private equity investment to build and launch their systems,” adds Israel. “That is a positive thing for our industry. If those companies can execute on their business plans, you will see continued interest in the sector.”
“Moore’s law is applicable to a lot of things,” says Beck. “It’s certainly proven applicable to small satellites.” VS
Caleb Henry is Via Satellite’s assistant editor.
