Photo: Omnispace/Ligado

The direct-to-device (D2D) market recently saw a significant piece of consolidation with Lynk Global and Omnispace’s plans to merge, along with a strategic bet from SES. Once the merger is completed, SES will become a major strategic shareholder.

In the aftermath of the deal, Via Satellite spoke to Andrew Cavalier, principal analyst for ABI Research; Jacob Hafey, policy manager for Access Partnership and Jean-Baptiste Thépaut, principal for Novaspace, about what it means for the two D2D companies, for SES, and how it could shake-up the D2D market.

VIA SATELLITE: With Lynk and Omnispace merging and SES serving as a major investor, what is your view on this deal? Who do you see as the winners?

Cavalier: The deal is very interesting and positions this potentially new company as a meaningful supplier for the space component of D2D connectivity market. All the parties involved stand to benefit. The market however is getting competitive, and industry leaders not only have the satellite component, but other pieces of a competitive and unique tech-stack under their belt, rockets, gateways, phones, cars, AI, cloud, etc.

Hafey: All three companies stand to benefit. SES already holds investments in both Lynk and Omnispace, so the consolidation of their assets and capabilities strengthens SES’s strategic position. For Lynk and Omnispace, each has what the other wants: Lynk gains access to globally coordinated S-band spectrum, while Omnispace gets a proven, operational D2D platform. Of the three, SES gains the most value because it enters the mobile satellite services (MSS)-terrestrial mobile network convergence market

The broader winners are those that will benefit most from D2D’s success. That includes over 300 million people around the globe living outside the reach of basic 3G networks, researchers in remote regions like the poles, and defense networks that depend on robust, multi-layered connectivity in high-stakes environments.

Thépaut: The synergies between Lynk and Omnispace are quite evident. Omnispace owns satellite S-band spectrum but is lacking the financial capability to develop an independent D2D constellation and has not secured a lot of partnerships with MNOs to ensure a swift go-to-market. Moreover, Omnispace had signed a MoU with Ligado to combine their respective MSS spectrum for a joint market entry, but Ligado has since then sold its existing spectrum rights to AST SpaceMobile.

On the other side, Lynk has already secured 50+ partnerships with local MNOs and received regulatory approval in over 30 countries, but its current strategy revolves around shared spectrum with MNOs, which has inherent limitations. With SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile now having secured access to satellite spectrum, Lynk risked being left behind in terms of service capabilities.

VIA SATELLITE: On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being excellent and 1 being terrible, how good a deal is this for SES?

Cavalier: 7 because SES has a strong opportunity to diversify its portfolio and tap into a large installed base of over 25 billion IoT devices today.

Hafey: I’ll defer on giving an exact number, but it’s a strategically sound move for all parties involved and SES in particular. At the same time, execution risks remain around technology integration, commercial alignment, and spectrum coordination.

Thépaut: No firm opinion on this yet. Whether it’s a good deal for SES depends on the size of its investment and its resulting share, as well as on the commercial perspectives of Lynk. This deal still leaves SES/Lynk/Omnispace on the outside looking in from an MSS spectrum perspective in the U.S. and Canadian markets (because Echostar/Starlink and Inmarsat/Ligado/AST hold the GEO S- and L-band licenses there), which as a block are two of the countries with the greatest potential for D2D adoption/use-cases due to their vast geography and relatively low mobile network coverage compared to landmass.

VIA SATELLITE: Did this deal surprise you in any way? 

Cavalier: Consolidation is expected and we have seen a lot of reactionary activities to the recent SpaceX-EchoStar deal. It’s becoming clear that MSS spectrum is no longer viewed as an option, and perhaps this is a wider signal to the industry for a united front in protecting space services allocations in the ITU.

Hafey: The deal isn’t too surprising but does demonstrate how vital hybrid MSS-IMT architectures have become for strategic purposes. On top of the challenges faced by the entire commercial space sector, D2D adds additional factors like spectrum availability across multiple bands and mobile device compatibility. This system will consist of essential components, including Omnispace’s 2 GHz MSS spectrum, Lynk’s 3GPP-compatible technology, and SES’s worldwide expansion capabilities through its existing ties with MNOs and governments.

Thépaut: We are not particularly surprised by this deal. The main limitation of D2D services right now is related to the spectrum provided by MNOs. There is no magic when it comes to space physics and delivering broadband services directly to phones is virtually impossible at the moment with the limited spectrum allocated by MNOs for D2D. We are therefore seeing an industry-wide spectrum grab to secure access to satellite L- and S-band frequencies rather than relying solely on MNO spectrum. We have notably seen a similar rationale in recent acquisitions such as SpaceX acquiring Echostar AWS-4 and PCS-H frequencies for $17 billion, or AST SpaceMobile gaining long-term access to Ligado frequencies.

These acquisitions are an acknowledgment of the inherent limitations of the existing partnership between D2D operators and MNOs, and the only realistic way to deliver on the initial promise of D2D.

VIA SATELLITE: Do you think we will start to see other traditional satellite operators look to invest aggressively into D2D?

Cavalier: Regional and sovereign networks are already moving to establish their own D2D systems – driven by data sovereignty, national security, and the need to stay relevant in the emerging space economy. The SES case is just one of the early signals of what’s to come.

Thépaut: I don’t think that many traditional satellite operators have the financial capability to invest aggressively into D2D at the moment. Eutelsat and Telesat concentrate virtually all their investments into their respective LEO constellations, and regional operators are mainly trying to gain access to LEO broadband capabilities by signing partnership deals with OneWeb/Lightspeed and/or Starlink. Viasat is probably the only operator with the financial surface to invest significantly into this market, which would have a strong rationale due to its legacy L/S-band activities. Viasat recently launched the Equatys venture together with Space42, which could require significant investments in the future.

VIA SATELLITE: What do you think is the strategic rationale for a traditional GEO operator to invest in D2D?

Cavalier: It may not make the most commercial sense, but it has strategic value. Having a modern space network, which can serve emerging applications like D2D, is now becoming a critical piece of every nation’s technology stack. The ability to transport AI, cloud, and other services directly to devices anywhere on Earth, regardless of terrestrial connectivity infrastructure, is compelling. This reduces overdependence on single points of failure and mitigates geopolitical bottlenecks that undermine national security, global harmony, and economic autonomy.

Hafey: D2D offers broader coverage and redundancy than GEO services alone, enabling operators to enhance offerings for existing customers while also expanding into new markets. Some GEO operators also hold valuable spectrum that remains underutilized or difficult to monetize. In that light, D2D is a strategic way for satellite operators to diversify their portfolios by allowing them to enter the mass-market mobile sector through hybrid GEO/MEO/LEO systems that connect directly to consumer devices and support 5G NTN development.

Thépaut: The rationale for L/S-Band GEO operators is quite obvious as D2D will leverage heavily on MSS spectrum. For C/Ku/Ka-Band operators, the only rationale would be a diversification opportunity and leveraging on existing ground segment capabilities, expertise in satellite operation and existing commercial relationship with MNOs to develop new revenue streams. But D2D is a CapEx-intensive business that is out of reach of most traditional GEO operators, at least when it comes to organic plays.

VIA SATELLITE: How does this piece of consolidation change the dynamics of the market?

Hafey: There are only a handful of actors that are currently providing continuous D2D services. The Lynk-Omnispace merger accelerates both parties’ timeline toward achieving continuous D2D service, which in turn will encourage other D2D service providers to improve connectivity speeds and other QoS metrics. SES’ investment may also encourage greater investment from other operators.

Thépaut: Until a few months ago, the D2D world was clearly split between operators using MNO spectrum (Starlink, AST SpaceMobile and Lynk) and the ones using MSS spectrum (Globalstar, Omnispace, Skylo, etc.). The spectrum acquisitions of the past few months have shattered the line between these two strategies. We’re now seeing that MNO spectrum will not be sufficient to provide a decent broadband experience and that partnerships with MNOs will have to be complemented by satellite spectrum. This creates an additional barrier to entry, which could eventually limit the number of potential operators.

VIA SATELLITE: Do you believe the market will have numerous players or will we start to see more consolidation in this area?

Cavalier: Given that D2D capabilities will likely be pursued to enable a more ‘complete’ national-network, we can expect to see multiple suppliers emerge – each aligned with different technology stacks. However, a few networks will continue to hold the lion’s share across multiple regions and markets.

Hafey: We may see more consolidation in this next stage of the D2D market because mergers and strategic partnerships are often necessary to provide continuous D2D services in the first place. The current regulatory and commercial environments pose challenges to individual providers, and startups and SMEs in particular, unless they already possess the necessary spectrum rights and have sufficient financial resources.

Thépaut: The market will probably be able to accommodate only a handful of D2D operators in the end. In all cases, we shouldn’t expect a multiplication of D2D operators similar to what has happened on the GEO market for example, as access to single national or even regional markets will probably not be enough to get a return on investment.

Another driver supporting prospects for a baseline of multiple D2D constellations/players is the recent Ookla statistics on the users of T-Mobile’s Starlink D2D service which illustrated that a material share of users were actually AT&T subscribers. As such, AT&T (and other MNOs) are incentivized to partner with alternative D2D suppliers to launch their own D2D services to help prevent/manage customer churn.

VIA SATELLITE: Finally, do you think the D2D market will live up to the hype?

Cavalier: As the commercial opportunity to save the space industry? No. As a defining step towards digital inclusion that draws us closer to universal access to AI and cloud resources? I think so.

Hafey: It depends on what the hype is exactly. D2D is still a ways away from competing head-to-head with traditional networks. At the same time, all our existing networks have yet to achieve true universal coverage across the globe. Malicious cyber actors are also increasingly infiltrating networks and disrupting services in global hotspots. D2D is well-positioned to complement mobile network services as an additional line of defense and act as a crucial backup for first responders during emergencies where critical ground infrastructure is rendered inoperable. The technology developers are going to lean into those strengths in the short-term while improving data transfer speeds and reducing operating costs in the long run.