Space Forecast: Euroconsult Estimates 2,500 Satellites Will Be Launched Per Year in the Next Decade
Euroconsult estimates that more than 2,500 satellites will be launched on average every year between now and 2031, driven by commercial constellations. The consulting firm released its flagship report, Satellites to be Built and Launched, on Monday.
Governments as the customer will remain a large driver of demand. Euroconsult estimates that 72% of market value will come from governments, and the leading space-faring governments — U.S, China, Russia, Japan, India and European Union and European Space Agency — will account for two thirds of the demand in value.
Much of the growth in demand for manufacturing and launch will come from constellations, and Euroconsult says constellations will account for 83% of demand, but only 31% of market value.
Euroconsult forecasts 13 annual Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellite orders by 2031, amid changes in the GEO market. The firm said eroding broadcasting business will not be fully offset by increasing broadband business.
While there is a lot of growth in satellites to be launched, companies in the industry face cost pressures and there is a danger of manufacturing oversupply.
“Increasing concentrated demands for satellites by a small number of new customers with high pressure on their cost structure will also put vendors’ margins under pressure,” commented Maxime Puteaux, editor of the report. “We have been monitoring satellite ‘mega factories’ and noticed they are emerging ten times faster than the projected demand. As we expect the 20 legacy vendors to retain at least 40% of the future demand in value, manufacturing oversupply is real and sustainability is at risk.”