Via Satellite archive photo (Shutterstock)

As satellite operators raise concerns about radio frequency (RF) congestion, greater use of laser communications in response could have unintended consequences.

SpaceX, for example, has warned that its cellular Starlink system of satellites will not be able to provide real-time calling to consumers unless the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) loosens its rules on how the radio spectrum is governed. One suggestion, proposed by the telecom tycoons Mukesh Ambani and Sunil Bharti Mittal, was for governments to auction off the spectrum, rather than allocate it – something they had called for in their native India.

That proposal came to nothing; but the fact remains that there is a perception that radio-frequency spectrum is limited, and solutions are needed to avoid a situation where there are too many signals crowding the same frequencies, leading to interference, slower speeds, less bandwidth, connectivity problems, degraded signal range, increased power consumption, and reliability issues for critical emergency services.

One solution is to make more of laser communication. This is already used by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), as well as a wide range of military and defense companies and telecom companies, including China Telecom, Telesat and SpaceX’s Starlink. Because it operates in the infrared or visible light spectrum, separate from RF, it frees us RF bandwidth for other uses and lessens the strain on the more heavily used RF channels.

The spread of laser communication is set to reshape intelligence gathering, and not in a way that favors it. Unlike traditional radio frequencies, laser communication is far harder to intercept. It leaves no side lobes, and its beams are tightly contained. In Low-Earth Orbit (LEO), for instance, a satellite laser beam narrows to just 12 meters at the ground. To intercept it, you’d need to be positioned precisely within that narrow beam, almost on top of the optical ground station itself. It’s a task both impractical and easily prevented. Even if an interception were possible, the user would know at once, undermining the effort altogether.

For similar reasons, laser is almost impossible to jam or detect, even via triangulation, since the beam isn’t visible outside of its path of travel. And if that hadn’t already made laser highly resilient, any attempted interference or detection is made even more difficult by the fact that optical ground entry points do not need to be stationed in environments with low radio noise, and can be deployed much closer to cities. Multi-gigabit optical ground entry points are much smaller than their radio counterparts, without their radio signature. As a result, control over satellite ground segment will be made harder by the progressive roll-out of optical ground entry points, and new methodologies and policies will need to be designed to ensure efficient regulation.

It’s not just intelligence that has to reckon with the rise of laser and satellite communication. Traditional telecom companies, especially those providing broadband through fiber and cable, are also feeling the squeeze from the growing RF congestion, a problem that looms largest for satellite providers like Starlink. Telcos may believe they’re safe from satellite competition: they rely mostly on customers in urban and suburban areas, where fiber to the home is the most cost-effective way to deliver internet. Satellites, for all their potential, cannot serve densely populated areas as effectively. High demand means that networks need a high density of antennas or access points – whether ground-based or satellite-based – to handle the load. But satellite systems struggle here: they can’t simply concentrate satellites over a single city without crowding the rest of their network. The upshot is clear: for all their promise, satellites still fall short in crowded places.

But if a new technology, like laser communication, increases each satellite’s capacity, then satellite-based connectivity will make sense for a growing number of people, as an alternative to fiber to the home, in dense rural areas, on the edge of cities, and progressively in suburban areas. Because telcos invest in infrastructure like fibre for decades, they may need to monitor the evolution of lasercom closely – not necessarily to adopt it, but so they can understand its potential impact on their plans and make adjustments accordingly.

For example, the logic of rolling-out fiber in a specific town could be challenged if the expectation is that, five to 10 years down the line, satellite connectivity will be able to provide solid service, thus reducing the expected ability to amortize the investment. By reducing the bottleneck that is RF congestion, lasers shift the threshold of where it makes sense to roll-out fiber.

It’s inevitable that as RF becomes increasingly crowded, laser will step up. And the consequences of that could be far-reaching. We might see changes in how we think about intelligence, about defense and about military matters in general. We might also see significant commercial shifts. The job for organizations is not to assume tomorrow will look like today, but to make intelligent predictions about how the next few years will look, and be ready to adapt. That will ensure that they can always chart a course across the water, no matter how turbulent.

Jean–François Morizur is the founder and CEO of Cailabs and a Forbes 30 Under 30 honoree in Science & Healthcare. Prior to founding Cailabs in 2013, he was Senior Associate at Boston Consulting Group and is co-inventor of Cailabs‘s groundbreaking Multi-Plane Light Conversion technology.