In our annual analyst roundtable ahead of SATELLITE 2023, analysts from ABI Research, Euroconsult, BIS Research, and Frost & Sullivan weigh in on key industry questions.
On whether all new satellite constellations will succeed, Andrew Cavalier of ABI Research warned of the path to profitability: “Companies can get stuck in development hell and burn through their funds before even launching a single satellite.” Maxime Puteaux of Euroconsult noted that investment dropped from $14 billion in 2021 to $8 billion in 2022: “A shake out is expected and part of the journey to a sustainable space economy.”
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On consolidation, Cavalier said OneWeb/Eutelsat appears better positioned than Viasat/Inmarsat because regulators had yet to rule on the latter. Ehrar Ahamed Shariff of Frost & Sullivan favored Viasat/Inmarsat: “The space industry is evolving, and it is no longer limited to a small number of high-paying customers but rather to a large number of modestly paying customers.”
On sustainability, Puteaux noted that large constellations are designed for lower altitudes to naturally deorbit via atmospheric drag, and that space traffic management is evolving: “Stakeholders are slowly realizing that without proactive actions space activities could suffer from the tragedy of commons.” Shariff warned: “Filling LEO space with hundreds of thousands of small, low-lifespan satellites without a clear and proven method of disposal over time is not great for the future of space.”
On the space economy, Cavalier said: “We believe the space economy will help grow the space infrastructure, broadcast, communication, and services sector to become a $1 trillion industry.” Arun Kumar Sampathkumar of BIS Research noted that deep space missions are attracting over $70 billion in investment during 2022–2032. VS
