Middle Path To Space

 

New Kids on the Launch Pad

A number of small- and medium-class launchers are emerging from various backgrounds to compete for a share of the marketplace. Arianespace, alongside the European Space Agency (ESA), is developing Vega, a small launcher that will join Ariane 5 and Soyuz in 2010. “Having completed the development of nearly the totality of the launcher components, including all motors, what remains to do is the completion of the launch pad, the launch system verification/simulations and carry out combined tests on the launch pad using a launcher mock-up. At that point, we’ll be ready for a launch campaign,” says Antonio Fabrizi, ESA’s director of launchers. With a capacity of 1,500 kilograms to low-Earth orbit, the Vega will target the government market. “The reason to develop Vega is to provide a tool for access to space in line with the institutional European demand, especially in the field of satellites in” low-Earth orbit, says Fabrizi.

In the meantime, there are other new players that are already active in the marketplace. For example Land Launch, the land-based sister system to Sea Launch, has placed Telstar 11N and Measat-3a in orbit and has another mission planned from Baikonur in the 2009 fourth quarter, says Kjell Karlsen, president and general manager of Sea Launch. Sea Launch filed for bankruptcy projection in U.S. court in June, but operations are expected to continue. For Land Launch, supply issues are likely to affect the vehicle’s launch tempo. “We are anticipating one Land Launch mission in 2010,” Karlsen says.

A player consolidating and expanding its position in the marketplace is Orbital Sciences. The company already boasts three vehicles: the air-launched Pegasus, the Minotaur 1 and the Taurus XL. Minotaur 4 is expected to join the ranks later this year, while Taurus 2, a Delta 2-class vehicle, is under development and scheduled to see the light of day in 2010. The Taurus 2, however, already is earmarked for institutional clients such as NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense. “We already have a backlog of nine missions: one for NASA and a Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) contract to launch eight cargo missions to the International Space Station,” says Beneski. While in the past Orbital Sciences has launched payloads for international customers, in the future, its launch capacity likely will be taken up by U.S. government missions.

Some experts argue that competition could come from Asia, not so much from Japan’s M-5, which remains limited to the domestic market, but from India’s Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) and China’s Long March family of launchers. But such competition likely will remain extremely limited, at least for the foreseeable future. “As a player in the launch market, India is absorbed by internal demand,” says Caceres. In addition, PSLV’s launch tempo of around a mission a year does not offer enough capacity for commercial customers, and the 2008 launch of an Israeli military satellite aboard a PSLV appears to have been an exception rather than the norm. China, on the other hand, could be a player but is barred from launching U.S. satellites by International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). “It remains to be seen what happens to ITAR under the Obama administration,” says Caceres. However, vehicles from both countries certainly will remain in support of their national space programs and domestic satellite operators. One day, they also might become a factor in the marketplace.

An Institutional Role

The overall consideration to be made in relation to the launch industry in general and the small- and medium-class segment in particular is the fact that commercial satellites tend to concentrate in geostationary orbit. All other orbits, including low-Earth, medium-Earth and highly elliptical orbit, on the other hand, are dominated by government and institutional satellites — with the notable exception of MSS constellations and a few other exceptions. “These orbits remain largely the domain of governments, be it for civilian or military missions,” says Villain. And this is the defining issue for small- and medium-class launchers. While medium launchers such as the Soyuz can deliver payloads to geostationary transfer orbit, the underlying trend of increase in satellite mass means that their role for these types of missions likely will diminish in the future. They remain a factor in the delivery of satellites to lower orbits, and as such their future will be defined by the commissions coming from government and institutional customers.

• Via Satellite Magazine Announces 2011 Satellite Executive of the Year Nominees

• UAVs Unlimited: ISR-Focused Military Looks to More Capable Remotely Piloted Aircraft

• Satellite R&D Landscape Rich with Promise NASA Space Technology Focus, Military Requirements Driving Future Innovations

• EXTENDED INTERVIEW: Satellite Executive of the Year 2010 Petra Mateos, Chairwoman, Hispasat
• Shifting Market Dynamics Forces Content Providers to Explore New Revenue Streams

• Jackson: “I Don’t Know How We Got Into This Position”
• The WiMax Point Of View
• The Defense Case for C-Band
• SUIRG: Satellite Players Must Keep C-Band
• Hartshorn: 'A Matter Of Life Or Death'