Via Satellite: How long can the resurgence in the commercial launch market last?
McKenna: There is a significant demand. So far this year there probably are on the order of 30 launch vehicle orders already placed. We see a total of maybe 60 over the next two or three years, so the pace has accelerated quite a bit. The reasons for that are capability, balance and robust growth in the commercial satellite market, but the cycle will tail off in three to four years.
Via Satellite: With the number of competitors starting to grow, will there be another glut of launch capacity in a few years?
McKenna: Everyone tries to develop their launch systems to grow to heavy-lift capability. But for now, most of the new systems serve the small-to-medium end of the satellite market. We see a demand for 15 to 17 satellites per year in our part of the market, which is 5-to-6-plus metric tons. To enter our marketplace you have to have a reliable and routine launch rate, and it takes a long time to get there. You have to have operational launch rates in the order we are dealing with to have that, and that means another five to 10 years of work on those systems if they are to enter the heavy-lift market.
Return to the Launch Service Providers page
Email
Comments
Print
Reuse
