Military Launch Market To See Robust, Steady Growth Into The Next Decade And Beyond

Other Possibilities

A cost-cutting possibility that remains a long shot is the use of international launch vehicles to launch U.S. government payloads, but to many, the risk of classified U.S. technology being shipped overseas outweighs any potential cost benefits. The logistical, operational and security factors would create great challenges for the Air Force that could potentially add to the cost of the launches themselves.
But not everyone is writing off the international competitors. “I think we definitely have to take them seriously,” says Heinly. “Perhaps not this decade, but we will have to consider them eventually. As you know, many satellites are being constructed with U.S. components, and that has slowed down the ability to import those into places like China and launch them from there. I don’t see it as something we have to think about too much either this year or next, but they could definitely be players in the market sometime in the future.”

Conclusion

In the short and long term, a new wave of advanced military satellites means launch services will be in great demand. Launch market demand is driven not only by cost but reliability, flexibility, military budgets, national security and economic stability also are important factors. The profitability of U.S. military launch companies depends on technical expertise and the ability to accurately price contracts. Boeing and Lockheed Martin enjoy economies of scale in design, manufacturing, and purchasing. SpaceX wants to compete by concentrating on low price, flexible mission configurations, selected components and systems. If SpaceX fails, and Russian and European launch vehicles continue to be prohibited, then Boeing and Lockheed Martin will be the true financial winners in the U.S. market.