Military Launch Market To See Robust, Steady Growth Into The Next Decade And Beyond

As Cost Driver

Competition for the ULA may help bring the launch prices down for the military as well. One company, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), wants to challenge the incumbent with a new rocket, positioning itself as the low-cost provider with its planned Falcon 9 rocket. SpaceX conducted the first five-engine firing of the rocket May 29, and the first Falcon 9 is scheduled to be delivered to Cape Canaveral by the end of 2008, with the first demonstration scheduled for mid-2009, “but we will launch from the Cape as quickly as we can,” says Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX’s vice president of business development.”
SpaceX is positioning itself as a low-cost provider — the Falcon 1 is being advertised for $7 million and the Falcon 9 for $35 million — as well as a flexible provider that can launch only an hour after an abort. However, its reliability has not measured up to Musk’s vision. But SpaceX is quite transparent in its efforts to demonstrate that an entrepreneurial company can compete with the giants such as ULA and Arianespace, and in its efforts to reach orbit, the company is seeking help from an independent party to solve some of the technical issues. SpaceX, which along with Northrop Grumman Corp filed an antitrust complaint with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission over the creation of the ULA, is still trying to perform the first successful mission with its smaller Falcon 1 rocket. At press time, SpaceX hoped to perform its next flight before Sept. 5, and a full success would provide some confidence to the company and the military that the Falcon 9 rocket is on track as well. SpaceX founder Elon Musk views his enterprise as “the scientific method — a trial-and-error approach” that has the support of the Air Force and the Department of Defense.
However, questions remain. Price means nothing to customers if it does not come along with reliability, and SpaceX must have a successful flight of its Falcon 1 and deliver the Falcon 9 rocket to Cape Canaveral by the end of 2008 to build some momentum and some confidence. “SpaceX is overly ambitious on the price that they will be able to meet, but it is a real company and their vision is entirely possible,” Caceres said. “So far no one can come close to the cost per pound per orbit that Elon Musk has offered which is usually about 50 percent or less than the ULA’s heaviest vehicle. Still Elon continues to revise upward the projected prices, but is that based on eight or 10 launches per year?” Sowers also sees a difficult task ahead of SpaceX. “Reliability is the one thing that our customers in the military launch market value more than any other quality and ULA’s key focus,” he says. “…We are an observer of what they are doing and we wish them the best. This is a tough business and SpaceX still has a way to go.”
Shotwell believes “our detractors are always going to be skeptical about our statements and progress that we make. You have to look at what we have achieved and in what time frame,” she says. “We started the company in June of 2002. By May of 2005, we had a qualification-level vehicle firing first stage engine. …We built a new launch pad in five months and activated and readied it for first lift off in November 2005. In less than three years, we designed, built a vehicle, and created two launch sites and had our first liftoff attempt. That is record-breaking. We had a lot to learn and to work on, such as process and procedural control. We then got back to the pad in less than a year for flight two. Our progress was enormous.”

Military Launch Market To See Robust, Steady Growth Into The Next Decade And Beyond

As Cost Driver

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