How The Major Players Stack Up
It is no mean feat, assessing the big three's strengths and weaknesses. This is because each of them is unique in their own way: both in terms of their products, and how they are targeting the global market. (Note: all payload capacities are cited for GSO payloads, since the NGSO market is not a factor these days.)
Arianespace: With launch facilities in equatorial French Guiana, the European-backed launcher company Arianespace has been taking an increasingly large share of the commercial satcom market. "In 2001 there were 28 launch contracts awarded in the global commercial market; we got 13 of them," says Arianespace CEO Jean-Yves Le Gall. "As of November 2002, there were 13, and we won 10.
"We're not getting the commercial contracts because we are cheaper," Le Gall adds. "In fact, everyone in the market is roughly equally-priced. We're getting the contracts because we offer better customer service, and we fly more often. Frankly, the more you fly, the more you sign. The more you sign, the more you fly."
As for launchers? A few years ago, Arianespace's workhorse was the Ariane 4 launcher, capable of lifting GSO payloads ranging from 2,000 kg to 4,900 kg (4,410 lbs. to 10,800 lbs.) However, with the heavier-lift Ariane 5 now coming into service--capable of carrying up to 10,000 kg (22,046 lbs.)--the Ariane 4 is being phased out of service. "The market now considers Ariane 5 as flight proven," Le Gall says.
"By the end of 2002, we will have launched eight Ariane 4s and four Ariane 5s," he notes. "In 2003, we'll be launching one Ariane 4, and seven Ariane 5s. After that, the Ariane 4 will be retired.
"We could have continued building Ariane 4s, but we decided to stop production on this vehicle to focus all our efforts on Ariane 5," Le Gall explains. "We consider that the key to achieving reliability is to fly often."
This said, Ariane's been having tough times financially. In fact, the company lost 193 million Euro (U.S.$195 million) in 2001, and is planning to be in the black only in 2003. Part of Arianespace's problem is due to the economic downturn. However, the Ariane 5, while offering more lifting capability than the Ariane 4, is also more expensive to build and launch.
In Arianespace's defense, Le Gall says, "we are the only launch company that publicly reports our profits and losses. It is impossible to tell if Lockheed and Boeing are losing money in the commercial market, but I suspect this is the case today."
Boeing Launch Services: Boeing has two families of launchers in its roster: the Delta series (2, 3, and now the Delta 4) through Boeing Expendable Launch Vehicles, and Sea Launch, an international partnership in which Boeing has the largest block of shares (Sea Launch's other partners include RSC-Energia [Russia], Kvaerner [Norway], and SDO Yuzhnoye/PO Yuzhmash [Ukraine].)
The Delta 4, having completed its maiden voyage this past November, has the potential of becoming Boeing's latest standard bearer. Small wonder: based on the Boeing Rocketdyne RS-68 engine, the Delta 4 is a new generation of land-based launcher that meets USAF Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) standards. The core Delta 4 first stage forms the basis of five different two-stage boosters capable of lifting GSO payloads ranging from 4,210 kg to 13,130 kg (9,280 lbs. to 28,950 lbs.). The Delta 4's second stage is actually derived from the proven Delta 3 second stage.
Meanwhile, the water-based Sea Launch system uses the Zenit 3SL multi-stage booster, with components built both in Ukraine and Russia. It is capable of lofting GSO payloads up to 6,000 kg (13,228 lbs.). All Sea Launch missions are for commercial satcom customers, such as DirecTV, Panamsat and Thuraya. The terms of the company's international partnership mean that Sea Launch does not sell to military clients.
So how is business at Boeing? "We have won 22 of the 29 EELV contracts awarded by the Air Force in Round One," replies Trafton. "Thanks to the Delta 2 and the Delta 4, we have a robust government manifest. We're also looking ahead to EELV 2 and EELV 3, where we hope to win more Delta 4 contracts.
"Our first launch of the Delta 4 will carry a commercial telecommunications satellite for Eutelsat of France," Trafton adds. "We have another commercial customer signed up to launch aboard a Delta 4 in 2003. (Boeing successfully completed the maiden voyage of its Delta 4 in late November 2002. For details about the launch and the rocket itself, see "For The Record" on page 8 of this issue.)
As for Sea Launch? "For 2003, we have six launches on our manifest," answers Jim Maser, Sea Launch's president and general manager. "Meanwhile, in 2002 we've had a pretty good year, even though the competition's very tough. We've had five straight successful launches in a row: for customers wanting a mix of reliability and competitive cost, our offering is hard to beat." (To be precise, Sea Launch has been launching vehicles since March 1999. In that time, the company has had one launch failure--that of the ICO F1 satellite, which was lost during Sea Launch's second commercial mission on March 12, 2000. The failure is believed to have been caused by an open second-stage valve which released too much helium. Sea Launch resumed flight services in July 2000, and has been flying successfully ever since.)
Lockheed Martin/ILS: Like Boeing, describing Lockheed Martin's place in the launcher industry requires more than a few words. In the commercial market, Lockheed Martin partnered with the Russian companies Khrunichev State Research and Production Space Center and RSC Energia, under the name International Launch Services (ILS). Collectively, ILS offers the Atlas 2AS, 3 and 5 boosters, plus Russian-built Protons. The Atlas 5--like Boeing's Delta 4--complies with USAF EELV standards.
In terms of carrying capacity, the Atlas launcher lines can lift from 3,719 kg/8,200 lbs. (Atlas 2AS) up to 8,670 kg/19,114 lbs. (Atlas 5 551/552; this variant has yet to fly). Meanwhile, the Proton K/Block DM booster can loft a 4,350 kg (9,590 lbs.) GSO payload, while the Proton M/Breeze M launcher can orbit GSO payloads up to 6,000 kg (13,228 lbs.).
"Due to its ILS partnership, Lockheed Martin appears to be much more focused on the commercial satcom than Boeing," McAlister says. "Also, they've based the Atlas 5 on their successful earlier model, the Atlas 3. Not only is this a less risky approach, but it also makes it easier to sell customers on this new vehicle."
Meanwhile, for U.S. government clients, Lockheed Martin offers Titan 4s for GSO payloads (5770 kg/12,721 lbs.). As well, the company has been refurbishing Cold War era Titan 2s--used for the 1960s NASA Gemini missions--for some NGSO payloads.
Commercially, "we have 10 launches scheduled in 2002," says Rymarcsuk. "Right now, we have three Atlases ready for liftoff at the Cape, and three ILS Protons ready for launch at Baikonur over the next few months. "Meanwhile, ILS expects to have around 10 launches in 2003.
"We have been selling ILS on our reliability, our heritage, our strong customer base and our distinctive schedule assurance and mutual backup to offer customers better quality service," he adds. "We're not relying on price-cutting as a main factor.
"Boeing, with its reorganization, appears to be focusing on the government market rather than the commercial market," Rymarcsuk concludes. "If you look at the commercial launch contracts that have been awarded over the last two years, almost all have gone to ILS and Arianespace."
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