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The launch of a pair of satellites owned and operated by African interests have given new hope to communications providers that transponder prices will come down and enable more networks and other services to be developed throughout the continent. But that may not be the case, as demand for services continues to outstrip growth in the number of available transponders.
The launch of the Nigerian Communication Satellite, or Nigcomsat-1, and Rascom-QAF1 in 2007 promise to mark the start of a new era in Africa where, until now, customers have been completely dependent on satellite assets operated by companies based outside the region. But according to some industry analysts, the pair of satellites may not have a major impact in a market against better-established competitors.
According to Patrick French, Singapore-based senior analyst at NSR, Rascom-QAF1 (which at press time was in a parking orbit as the satellite manufacturer worked to solve a helium leak that could reduce the satellite’s lifetime) would add only eight C-band and 12 Ku-band transponder equivalents to the African market, while Nigcomsat-1 adds about four C-band and about 12 Ku-band transponder equivalents plus some Ka-band capacity. “This amount of capacity is significant but not substantial and will only alleviate somewhat the supply crunch in the region,” he says. “Clients for various video services will nonetheless migrate to the established video hotspots like those offered by Eutelsat, SES and Intelsat in the region because of established audiences at these satellites and because of greater reassurances for backup.”
International operators like Intelsat and Eutelsat are in a favorable position because they are already providing capacity into Africa with roadmaps for more capacity, says Gerdus van Eeden, chief technology officer at South Africa-based Multichoice Africa. “In general, (their) satellites provide service to several regions like the Middle East and Europe and are therefore more cost effective than a dedicated satellite that provides only service to Africa,” he says. “I am skeptical that these two (new African) satellites will make a significant impact.”
The launch of the new African satellites comes at a time that Intelsat is preparing to retire several of its 700 and 800 series satellites. Thus, the new capacity will do little to offset the loss of existing capacity, which senior analyst Stephane Chenard of Paris-based Euroconsult estimates will produce a transponder shortage of between 100 and 200 transponders and may leave coverage gaps over parts of Africa. “The gaps are well known and are taken care of by upcoming satellites, regardless of whether they add enough capacity across the board,” he says.
Recent video contracts, including Eutelsat deals with Télédiffusion d’Algérie, Entertainment Highway and Canal Satellite Réunion; Intelsat with MY TV; and SES New Skies with STV Cameroon and France 24 indicate not only that capacity for African video services can be found in the form of blocks of multiple transponders but also that capacity pricing for Africa is not deemed overly expensive by eager customers, says French. “Rascom and Nigcomsat will more likely impact markets like VSAT networks, cell trunking and IP trunking where the specific satellite is less important than the cost of the capacity,” he says, adding that other new satellites such as NSS-12, Telstar-11N, W2A and Sirius-4 will impact the market as well.
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