The Satellite News Financial Ticker
|
Week of March 26 – April 1, 2004
|
Percentage Change
|
|||||
|
|
Symbol
|
April 1 Price
|
One Week
|
One Month
|
Three Month
|
Year to Date
|
|
Operators
|
||||||
| APT SATELLITE HLDGS | ATS |
2.08
|
(1.0)
|
(17.1)
|
(12.6)
|
(12.6)
|
| ASIASAT TELECOM | SAT |
17.90
|
4.1
|
(9.9)
|
(5.7)
|
(5.7)
|
| BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING | BSY |
50.40
|
(2.4)
|
(8.5)
|
(1.1)
|
(1.1)
|
| ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A | DISH |
33.24
|
(4.0)
|
(10.9)
|
(2.2)
|
(2.2)
|
| THE DIRECTV GROUP | DTV |
15.90
|
3.3
|
(9.1)
|
(3.9)
|
(3.9)
|
| LORAL SPACE & COMM | LOR |
0.61
|
5.2
|
(11.6)
|
93.7
|
93.7
|
| NEWS CORP | NWS |
36.60
|
5.3
|
(2.4)
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
| NEW SKIES SATELLITES | NSK |
6.90
|
6.2
|
2.2
|
(3.6)
|
(3.6)
|
| PANAMSAT | SPOT |
24.65
|
1.3
|
6.2
|
14.3
|
14.3
|
| PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA | PSNRY |
0.22
|
–
|
(6.4)
|
340.0
|
340.0
|
| PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS | PGTV |
39.53
|
4.5
|
4.0
|
40.8
|
40.8
|
| SES GLOBAL | SESF.LU |
7.23
|
(1.0)
|
(4.2)
|
(9.6)
|
(9.6)
|
| SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO | SIRI |
3.46
|
8.8
|
15.3
|
9.5
|
9.5
|
| XM SATELLITE RADIO | XMSR |
28.34
|
4.5
|
10.0
|
7.8
|
7.8
|
| Operators’ Average | 100.00 |
2.5
|
(3.0)
|
33.5
|
33.5
|
|
|
Manufacturers
|
||||||
| ANDREW | ANDW |
18.00
|
8.9
|
(4.4)
|
55.3
|
55.3
|
| BALL | BLL |
68.52
|
3.0
|
5.0
|
15.0
|
15.0
|
| BOEING | BA |
40.77
|
2.6
|
(6.9)
|
(3.3)
|
(3.3)
|
| COM DEV INTL | *CDV |
2.63
|
(2.6)
|
(10.2)
|
(8.7)
|
(8.7)
|
| EMS TECHNOLOGIES | ELMG |
20.51
|
12.7
|
(13.5)
|
(0.1)
|
(0.1)
|
| GARMIN | GRMN |
42.40
|
(4.4)
|
(8.5)
|
(22.2)
|
(22.2)
|
| GILAT SAT NETWORKS | GILTF |
8.85
|
1.1
|
15.1
|
81.0
|
81.0
|
| GLOBECOM | GCOM |
5.75
|
9.5
|
(10.8)
|
21.1
|
21.1
|
| HARRIS | HRS |
49.48
|
6.6
|
3.4
|
30.4
|
30.4
|
| HONEYWELL | HON |
33.87
|
3.0
|
(4.1)
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
| KVH | KVHI |
14.52
|
(11.5)
|
(16.1)
|
(47.3)
|
(47.3)
|
| LOCKHEED MARTIN | LMT |
46.00
|
0.5
|
(0.5)
|
(10.5)
|
(10.5)
|
| LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES | LU |
4.23
|
5.8
|
1.0
|
48.9
|
48.9
|
| MOTOROLA | MOT |
18.03
|
4.5
|
(4.4)
|
28.8
|
28.8
|
| ORBITAL SCIENCES | ORB |
12.61
|
11.3
|
(3.3)
|
4.9
|
4.9
|
| QUALCOMM | QCOM |
66.29
|
5.4
|
5.6
|
22.9
|
22.9
|
| RAYTHEON | RTN |
31.14
|
1.4
|
(0.9)
|
3.7
|
3.7
|
| ROCKWELL COLLINS | COL |
31.89
|
3.5
|
(1.3)
|
6.2
|
6.2
|
| SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA | SFA |
32.75
|
3.1
|
(2.6)
|
20.0
|
20.0
|
| SKY FRAMES | SKYU |
0.10
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
–
|
| TITAN | TTN |
19.96
|
(2.1)
|
(6.0)
|
(8.5)
|
(8.5)
|
| TRIMBLE NAVIGATION | TRMB |
23.12
|
2.8
|
(1.2)
|
(6.9)
|
(6.9)
|
| VIASAT | VSAT |
25.94
|
6.1
|
(4.8)
|
35.5
|
35.5
|
| Manufacturers’ Average | 100.00 |
3.1
|
(3.0)
|
11.6
|
11.6
|
|
|
Nasdaq Composite Index
|
||||||
| Nasdaq | comp |
2,015.01
|
2.4
|
(2.1)
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
| SP 500 | sp50 |
1,132.17
|
2.1
|
(2.1)
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
| SN Stock Price Average |
100.00
|
2.9
|
(3.0)
|
19.9
|
19.9
|
|
Wall Street Analysis
By Paul Dykewicz, PBI Media LLC
XM Satellite Radio’s [XMSR] first quarter subscriber gains topped Wall Street estimates by such a wide margin last Thursday that the stock price jumped Friday morning past the year-end estimate of $30 a share offered by Bob Peck, the satellite analyst at Bear Stearns.
The stock peaked at $30.90 a share in early trading Friday before easing back to $30.01 a share at 10:14 a.m. Then it dipped to $29.81 a share at 10:30 a.m. The question is not whether XM is a good growth company; it has demonstrated that prowess since its September 2001 commercial launch (See column, p. 2). The issue is how to value it.
Peck and many other analysts on Wall Street use a discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Indeed, Peck noted in a research report last Tuesday he supports his $30-a-share price target using DCF calculations along with earnings per share and free cash flow multiples.
In the past, Peck noted XM’s stock has been lifted by positive quarterly reports from the company, only to dip slightly when no near-term catalysts are on the horizon.
This time could be different. Peck projected that XM’s stock price would be given support from the New York Auto Show starting April 7, and from possible announcements about new hardware, programming, and car production.
With XM reporting more than 320,000 net new subscribers during the first quarter to beat Wall Street consensus estimates by roughly 50,000 subscribers, the company’s first- quarter revenues likely will be higher than expected when announced later this month, Peck predicted. However, Peck also offered a note of caution. He said investors should not extrapolate a net new subscriber run rate based on unexpectedly strong first-quarter growth. On the other hand, he believes XM’s year-end 2004 subscriber total could exceed his current estimate of 2.9 million.
Satellite radio is entering the rapid take up phase of its market introduction and, during the next two or three years, dramatically accelerating subscriber figures can be expected both for market-leading XM and feisty Sirius, said Steve Blum, a satellite-broadcasting consultant who heads Tellus Venture Associates in Marina, Calif.
Investors should not be surprised if XM’s stock price targets are boosted in the coming months by various Wall Street analysts. However, the use of prudent valuation methods should keep a definite lid on any resulting upgrades.
Paul Dykewicz is senior editor and senior analyst of Satellite News. He can be reached at 301/354-1769 or at [email protected] .