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The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By | October 13, 2003

      Week of Oct. 3 – 9, 2003
      Percentage Change
      Symbol
      Oct. 9 Price
      One Week
      One Month
      Three Month
      Year to Date
      Operators
      APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
      2.30
      9.5
      (20.7)
      (19.9)
      33.7
      ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
      15.15
      (0.3)
      (11.1)
      (12.4)
      33.0
      BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
      43.00
      3.5
      1.9
      (6.3)
      7.3
      ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
      39.87
      3.5
      2.8
      8.6
      79.1
      HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
      15.10
      4.9
      1.4
      11.6
      41.1
      LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
      0.33
      26.4
      32.0
      (89.0)
      (92.3)
      NEWS CORP NWS
      33.89
      2.1
      (1.6)
      9.9
      29.1
      NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
      5.80
      2.8
      19.6
      39.8
      PANAMSAT SPOT
      15.51
      3.7
      (3.0)
      (17.8)
      5.9
      PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
      0.19
      (2.6)
      131.3
      32.1
      23.3
      PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
      14.25
      (4.2)
      (16.2)
      (55.1)
      8.8
      rSTAR CORP RSTRC
      0.62
      1.6
      (17.3)
      6.9
      158.3
      SES GLOBAL SESF.LU
      6.90
      4.9
      12.9
      21.1
      7.8
      SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
      1.94
      4.8
      15.4
      9.5
      202.8
      XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
      17.99
      12.8
      23.4
      40.0
      568.8
      Operators’ Average
      100.00
      4.7
      10.3
      (2.7)
      76.4
      Manufacturers
      ANDREW ANDW
      13.49
      10.0
      6.4
      18.8
      31.2
      BALL BLL
      56.57
      3.1
      6.4
      25.3
      10.5
      BOEING BA
      36.79
      4.1
      (0.5)
      5.1
      11.5
      COM DEV INTL CDV.TO
      2.12
      (7.0)
      6.0
      46.2
      114.1
      EMS TECHNOLOGIES ELMG
      19.10
      12.2
      4.0
      37.2
      22.7
      GARMIN LTD. GRMN
      44.58
      7.0
      1.3
      5.0
      52.2
      GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
      5.67
      23.0
      14.5
      15.5
      (27.3)
      GLOBECOM GCOM
      4.31
      11.9
      (9.8)
      16.5
      14.9
      HARRIS HRS
      36.23
      0.6
      3.3
      19.2
      37.8
      HONEYWELL HON
      27.87
      3.8
      (7.3)
      0.2
      16.1
      KVH KVHI
      28.26
      12.1
      (8.0)
      16.8
      228.6
      LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
      45.74
      (1.5)
      (12.4)
      (4.8)
      (20.8)
      LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
      2.32
      8.4
      (2.1)
      20.8
      84.1
      MOTOROLA MOT
      13.73
      13.2
      21.7
      39.1
      58.7
      NERA NERAY
      2.19
      8.3
      (9.9)
      35.9
      102.6
      ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
      9.45
      (1.5)
      (1.4)
      22.9
      123.9
      QUALCOMM QCOM
      43.66
      3.1
      2.8
      10.6
      20.0
      RAYTHEON RTN
      27.53
      (3.4)
      (15.6)
      (15.5)
      (10.5)
      ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
      25.88
      1.6
      (5.1)
      1.4
      11.3
      SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
      34.60
      12.0
      (3.3)
      31.3
      191.7
      SKY FRAMES SKYU
      1.05
      (4.5)
      (16.0)
      (38.2)
      (86.9)
      STM WIRELESS STMI
      0.01
      (75.0)
      53.8
      (50.0)
      (95.0)
      TITAN TTN
      20.94
      0.2
      22.5
      95.7
      101.3
      TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
      24.25
      2.6
      (13.4)
      (6.7)
      94.2
      VIASAT VSAT
      21.35
      17.6
      27.3
      44.3
      85.0
      Manufacturers’ Average
      100.00
      2.5
      2.6
      15.7
      46.9
      Nasdaq Composite Index COMP
      1,911.90
      4.3
      1.2
      9.5
      43.2
      S & P 500 SP50
      1,038.73
      2.0
      0.7
      3.1
      18.1
      SN Stock Price Average
      100.00
      3.3
      5.5
      8.8
      58.0

      Wall Street Analysis

      By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities

      EchoStar Communications [Nasdaq: DISH] has garnered lots of press with its overture to buy Loral Space and Communications [OTC BB: LRLSQ.OB]. Given the process it has chosen, we doubt that EchoStar is serious. The Oct. 15 bid deadline in Loral’s bankruptcy process will provide a test.

      Loral’s pre-packaged bankruptcy provides a clear path for the disposal of its North American satellite fleet. Loral has signed an agreement with Intelsat to purchase the satellites for about $1.1 billion. If any third party submits a higher bid for those assets prior to Oct. 15, Loral will notify the bankruptcy court. An auction is scheduled for Oct. 20. The judge will issue a ruling on Oct. 22 approving the sale of the North American assets to the auction winner. This process provides no opportunity for EchoStar to buy all of Loral’s assets.

      Instead, EchoStar chose an alternative path of submitting a letter of interest (LOI) to the Loral board offering to purchase all of Loral’s assets. Those assets include the six North American satellites, other satellites and related assets, and the Space Systems/Loral satellite-manufacturing arm. The Loral board could have chosen to recommend EchoStar’s offer and to introduce it into the bankruptcy process but it opted to reject it. EchoStar’s only chance is to convince Loral’s creditors to pressure the board to reconsider the offer, but that appears unlikely.

      Under the Intelsat bid, Loral’s senior creditors would be largely repaid. Furthermore, the probability of the Intelsat deal going forward, barring a stronger bid, is high. Intelsat is a reliable organization and the purchase agreement has few material contingencies. The creditors would receive their money upon court and regulatory approval. By comparison, EchoStar offer would require the negotiation of a detailed purchase agreement and likely drag out for months. EchoStar is a notoriously tough negotiator. Moreover, even with an agreement, EchoStar has a reputation for backing out of deals even after they have been struck. It is doubtful creditors would chase the speculative possibility of a deal with EchoStar.

      Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at tom.watts@sgcowen.com. Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.

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