Launch Services
According to Futron, the launch services industry also was in good health in 2007, as global revenues increased 19 percent in 2007, which reversed a 10 percent decline from the previous year. "There were 68 worldwide orbital launches in 2007, 23 of which were commercially competed," says Maleter. "This compares with 66 total orbital launches in 2006, 21 of which were commercial. In 2004 and 2005, by contrast, only 54 and 55 orbital launches were staged, respectively — with only 15 and 18 commercial launches occurring, respectively, in those two years. So 2006 and 2007 marked a substantial improvement compared to the doldrums of 2004 and 2005. Launch tempos in 2008 are likely to remain fairly consistent with 2007 numbers. As of August 15, 39 orbital launches have taken place worldwide so far in 2008, 15 of them commercial."
"A number of variables" could affect launch tempos in 2009, says Maleter. "The new Orbcomm and Globalstar constellations will be closer to launch, though they may not actually launch until the following year or later. Suborbital space tourism plans will be closer to fruition. The space shuttle will be closer to retirement. A market-changing low cost launcher, such as SpaceX’s Falcon 1, may achieve operability, and new launch vehicles that have debuted this year, such as the Land Launch Zenit 3SLB and the Soyuz 2, may also alter the market landscape," she says. "It is too early to know how these variables, along with changing global economic conditions, will affect the launch landscape. That said, at this point there is nothing to suggest that launch tempos in 2009 will decrease from 2007 and 2008 rates. It is more likely that the number of launches in 2009 would remain steady or increase slightly."
Caceres believes the launch service industry will continue to exhibit strong growth over the next couple of years. "I would expect that to increase over the next two years, but I don’t think it will be a radical increase. There is a lot happening worldwide to suggest there would be an up cycle in terms of launch services. There continues to be demand for commercial communications satellites, so that will mean more business. There are a lot of replenishment satellites that need to be launched for mobile communication satellite systems. A fair number of smaller launch vehicles will be able to get some business that they have not been getting in the last few years," he says.
Mechanick also believes the launch services market is perhaps more resilient than it was before. "The launch industry has always experienced a degree of cyclicality in terms of launch successes and failures," he says. "There has been a recent spate of failures, which contributes to the nervousness of various players from satellite operators to insurance underwriters. What is encouraging in this regard is the shorter recovery period following a launch failure than had been the case in the past."
Satellite Manufacturing Revenues
Military
The military satellite market will be difficult to predict. "In general, the U.S. military continues to explore an Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) strategy, which involves more plug-and-play modular satellite architectures and rapidly replaceable satellite constellations assisted by rapid and flexible launch deployment," says Maleter. "2008 may see a significant military order assuming the prime contract for the Transformation Communications Satellite system is announced in the late-2008/early-2008 time frame, as is now expected."
Caceres believes the military market will remain strong over the next few years. "There is strong demand in this market. You have more countries worldwide that are dedicating more money for their national space programs, and usually that means for money for military satellites," he says. "The United States obviously launches more military satellites than anywhere else, maybe except for Russia, but we expect that will significantly increase over the next five years, as there have been a lot of satellite programs that have been delayed because of technical problems and cost over runs."
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