Launch Forecast For Next Decade
The satellite industry is expected to continue many of these trends throughout the next decade, as voice, data and video communications continue to drive the deployment of geosynchronous satellites. In particular, the popularity of Internet Protocol (IP)-based communications — including satellite broadband — and the introduction of high-definition (HD) TV are pushing up demand for new spacecraft, along with the need to replace aging satellites currently in service.
With these factors in mind, the COMSTAC/FAA 2006 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts increases its estimates for the number of geostationary communication satellites that will be launched between 2006 and 2015, reversing a trend in which the numbers were cut during the previous two years. Co-written by the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) and the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation (FAA/AST), the annual report looks ten years into the future. COMSTAC predicts satellite and launch demand for geostationary satellites, while the FAA/AST projects demand for non-geostationary satellites and launchers.
“In the [geosynchronous] market, satellite demand [now] averages 20.8 satellites per year, a slight increase from 20.5 satellites in the 2005 forecast,” the report says. This said, it is still a drop from the 2004 estimates of 21.1 satellites per year, and 2003 forecasts of 23.3 satellites per year.
“From 1995 to 2001, the COMSTAC reports were historically overly optimistic,” says Rusch “However, the most recent forecast for launches is consistent with past experience. I would estimate that this forecast may be a little pessimistic because there will be a need to replace a number of satellites that were launched during the peak activity years. Based on satellite orders and projections of orders, it seems likely that there will be several years with a somewhat higher number of [geosynchronous] launches.”
According to the FAA/AST, demand for non-geostationary satellites continues to grow. Based on the most recent data, the projected market includes 160 satellites launched from 2006 to 2015, “the third significant annual increase in the total number of [non-geostationary] satellites since the 1998 forecast,” the report says.
There are a number of factors pushing up the predictions. One factor is the international science community, “where countries without indigenous launch capabilities have generated steady demand for commercial launch services that has outpaced demand from other markets, including telecommunications and commercial remote sensing, over the last several years,” the study says. Using low-cost launchers such as refurbished Russian and Ukrainian ballistic missiles, these countries are able to get their satellites into space relatively inexpensively. The report divides these payloads into three categories; remote sensing, scientific/experimental, and technology demonstrators. It expects “approximately 97 satellites of the international science or other category will be launched during the forecast period.”
As for the other estimated 63 launches, the study cites a variety of projects; such as the German Armed Forces’ plan to loft five SAR-LUPE radar imaging satellites into low-Earth orbit. It also expects launches by commercial remote sensing companies such as Digitalglobe, Geoeye, Israel’s Imagesat International, Infoterra GmbH, MSA Geospatial Services, Northrop Grumman and Rapideye AG. Transorbital also should be launching a remote sensing satellite called Trailblazer, with the unique twist that the satellite will orbit the Moon; making money shooting images of its surface and that of far-off Earth.
Then there are the Mobile Satellite Services carriers: The FAA/AST says that “Globalstar plans to launch eight spare satellites in the first half of 2007”, and is “in the initial stages for its next-generation satellite system.” Globalstar’s current constellation, which includes spares that are scheduled to be launched in 2007, are predicted to last through 2011, while Iridium’s “current constellation of 66 operational and spacecraft and 11 in-orbit spaces is expected to last through at least 2014, with some satellite remaining functional beyond 2020,” the report says. “New satellites will likely be launched gradually, at a rate of several per year, starting around 2013.” Orbcomm also is expected to place more satellites in orbit, starting with a demonstration spacecraft in 2006 and followed by six next-generation satellites beginning in 2007 and additional launches in 2009.
“In terms of either launch or manufacturing, this increase is of limit economic value,” says Engel. “It is not until Globalstar and Iridium begin to replace their constellations that this market will really grow again. Galileo may also have a stimulating effect although the absolute number of satellites is lower.”
In terms of overall launches for the period of 2006 to 2015, the U.S. government is predicting an annual average of 16.7 medium-to-heavy launches for geostationary satellites, 3.6 launches of medium-to-heavy launches to non-geostationary orbit and 3.3 launches of small vehicles delivering payloads to low-Earth orbit. This adds up to an average of 23.6 commercial space launches per year for the next decade.
Going back to 2005, the report predicted a ten-year annual trend of 16.4 geostationary launches, 2.5 medium-to-heavy launches to non-geostationary orbit and 3.9 small launches to low-Earth orbit. This works out to an average of 22.8 commercial space launches each year 2005-2014.
According to the report this growth is due to the lag time between geostationary procurements and actual launches — which are often delayed for a number of reasons — rather than any significant change in market demand. “Comparing this year’s forecast to the previous two years’ forecasts, the traveling bow wave effect is evident,” the report says. “This bow wave effect occurs due to the difference between demand and realized launches, where the demand is typically greater than the actual number of launches due to launch delays.” This means that increase in the annual geostationary estimates are due to the launch industry playing catchup, rather than the satellite manufacturers getting a greater number of contracts than previously predicted.
The predicted total of non-geostationary launches for the next ten years is up 8 percent from 2004 predictions, while the predicted number of satellites is up by 11 percent. The FAA/AST attributes this disparity to multiple non-geostationary satellites being launched together on single launch vehicles.
Tellus Venture’s President Stephen Blum is more cautious about the next 10 year in terms of launches to low-Earth orbit. “It sounds to me like the U.S. government is assuming that Iridium and Globalstar are going to fall into the ocean,” he says. “Replacing those constellations would presumably generate more [non-geostationary] launch activity than they are predicting. That might be a good, if unfortunate, working assumption, though.”
Future Looks Better
The global satellite industry did better in 2005 than it has since the turn of the millennium. This said, the decline in satellite manufacturing is a real concern, especially because this sector still garners the vast majority of its revenues from government business, which appears to be decreasing with time.
Still, a 7.4 percent increase in total revenues to $88.8 billion is nothing to take lightly. Despite facing some very challenging times, the global satellite industry continues to hold its own and prosper despite everything that has been thrown at it.
“This last, long round of rationalization of commercial satellite and [direct broadcast satellite] operators is nearly over,” says Blum. “For the coming few years, the best and, in most cases, only way for a satellite operator to grow is to launch new birds. They won’t be able to replace aging satellites or gain new capacity by absorbing rivals, so the only way forward is up — back into orbit.” ■
James Careless is Senior Contribuing Editor to Via Satellite.
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