The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By | March 22, 2004 | Feature

Week of 3/12/04 – 3/18/04
Percentage Change
Symbol
March 18 Price
One Week
One Month
Three Month
Year to Date
Operators
APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
2.10
(17.3)
(10.3)
(11.8)
ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
17.50
(9.3)
(17.5)
(4.2)
(7.8)
BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
52.80
1.0
(6.3)
3.0
3.7
ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
33.44
(5.4)
(13.5)
1.6
(1.6)
HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
15.94
2.8
(9.1)
2.0
(3.7)
LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
0.62
(4.5)
(20.4)
82.6
97.1
NEWS CORP NWS
35.11
(0.9)
(9.2)
0.8
(2.7)
NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
6.55
1.9
(3.2)
(7.2)
(8.5)
PANAMSAT SPOT
23.62
2.5
0.1
12.5
9.6
PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
0.25
(2.0)
22.5
145.0
390.0
PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
35.03
(0.8)
28.6
83.8
24.8
SES GLOBAL SESF.LU
7.15
(1.4)
(8.9)
(5.7)
(10.6)
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
3.19
11.1
8.1
46.7
0.9
XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
27.84
11.4
22.9
21.0
5.9
Operators’ Average  
100.00
0.5
(1.7)
26.6
34.7
Manufacturers
ANDREW ANDW
17.24
3.0
(1.9)
53.9
48.7
BALL BLL
64.88
(0.5)
1.1
10.9
8.9
BOEING BA
39.82
(0.8)
(10.7)
(3.7)
(5.5)
COM DEV INTL *CDV
2.67
2.7
(8.2)
(10.7)
(7.3)
EMS TECHNOLOGIES ELMG
18.02
9.4
(23.4)
(8.2)
(12.3)
GARMIN GRMN
40.49
(1.2)
(14.0)
(25.6)
(25.7)
GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
8.93
18.1
18.4
86.8
82.6
GLOBECOM GCOM
5.70
(4.7)
(6.7)
4.6
20.0
HARRIS HRS
46.00
3.6
(6.3)
20.7
21.2
HONEYWELL HON
33.00
1.7
(7.7)
4.5
(1.3)
KVH KVHI
14.00
(6.8)
(22.9)
(52.4)
(49.2)
LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
44.60
(0.1)
(8.5)
(10.9)
(13.2)
LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
4.13
8.1
(1.7)
41.0
45.4
MOTOROLA MOT
17.04
2.3
(0.1)
27.2
21.7
ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
12.15
1.2
(9.9)
(2.0)
1.1
QUALCOMM QCOM
64.96
5.1
10.0
26.2
20.5
RAYTHEON RTN
30.07
(0.1)
(5.4)
1.0
0.1
ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
30.24
0.9
(7.8)
3.3
0.7
SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
31.31
1.5
(7.0)
13.3
14.7
SKY FRAMES SKYU
0.10
100.0
(71.4)
TITAN TTN
20.36
4.7
(2.8)
(6.6)
(6.6)
TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
21.94
5.0
(7.1)
(1.4)
(11.6)
VIASAT VSAT
24.89
(1.5)
(10.3)
33.1
30.0
Manufacturers’ Average  
100.00
2.3
(1.4)
5.8
8.0
Nasdaq Composite Index
Nasdaq comp
1,960.98
0.9
(5.6)
0.2
(2.1)
SP 500 sp50
1,119.72
1.2
(2.8)
2.8
0.7
SN Stock Price Average
100.00
1.6
(1.5)
13.7
18.1

Wall Street Analysis

By Paul Dykewicz, PBI Media LLC

The likely sale of PanAmSat [SPOT] was reflected in reports from two satellite analysts last week who focused on the valuation of the company and its newly renamed parent rather than leaving any doubt that a deal would occur.

By renaming Hughes Electronics as The DirecTV Group and changing the ticker from HS to DTV, the News Corp-led [NWS] organization is positioning itself to focus attention and resources on its satellite television operation. Thomas Eagan, a satellite and cable analyst with Oppenheimer, issued a research note Friday just before press time predicting that DirecTV Group’s PanAmSat [SPOT] and Hughes Network Systems (HNS) business units would be sold. He also forecast a combining of the two News Corp-owned Latin American satellite television operations.

A rationalizing of the company’s divisions will enable DirecTV Group to report higher company cash flow growth while more easily showing it trades at a lower multiple on a cash-flow and per-subscriber basis than Wall Street analysts previously had calculated, Eagan explained.

The satellite TV operation of DirecTV Group has an estimated 2004 cash flow of 35 percent, compared with 32 percent for all the parent’s operations combined. The parent company’s current trading multiples suggest that the U.S. satellite TV unit is valued at slightly more than $1,700 per subscriber, 15.7 times 2004 estimated cash flow and more than 40 times 2004 estimated free cash flow. In comparison, EchoStar is higher priced on a per-subscriber basis but equivalent on a cash-flow basis. A sale of PanAmSat and HNS would further widen that valuation gap between DirecTV and EchoStar – spurring Eagan to rate DirecTV Group a “buy” for investors.

Patrick Fuhrmann, a satellite analyst with ABN AMRO, said speculation about the sale of PanAmSat now has the company’s stock price fully valued. PanAmSat’s negotiating power to boost the price further appears limited due to a “small universe of potential buyers,” he added. Overcapacity is expected to “plague” the sector for at least another year and the company’s backlog is on the decline, Fuhrmann concluded.

Paul Dykewicz is senior editor and senior analyst of Satellite News. He can be reached at 301/354-1769 or at pdykewicz@pbimedia.com.

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