The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By | January 19, 2004 | Feature

Week of Jan. 9-15, 2004
Percentage Change
Symbol
Jan. 15 Price
One Week
One Month
Three Month
Year to Date
Operators
APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
2.74
(2.1)
6.6
22.9
15.1
ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
19.61
(6.8)
9.3
23.4
3.3
BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
56.99
2.3
18.7
34.1
11.9
ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
36.30
2.4
19.3
(8.8)
6.8
HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
17.35
2.0
14.8
12.4
4.8
LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
0.48
43.3
43.3
14.3
52.4
NEWS CORP NWS
37.04
1.6
6.1
7.0
2.6
NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
7.24
(1.9)
2.5
24.6
1.1
PANAMSAT SPOT
20.39
(2.7)
(3.4)
13.1
(5.4)
PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
0.19
58.3
11.8
(0.0)
280.0
PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
43.09
37.7
123.8
209.1
53.5
SES GLOBAL SESF.LU
7.90
1.3
1.3
7.5
(1.3)
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
3.15
(6.2)
40.9
43.7
(0.3)
XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
26.78
(4.3)
15.8
42.2
1.9
Operators’ Average
100.00
8.9
22.2
31.8
30.5
Manufacturers
ANDREW ANDW
17.45
(0.3)
59.2
26.8
50.6
BALL BLL
57.48
(2.0)
1.2
2.3
(3.5)
BOEING BA
43.37
1.2
10.6
17.2
2.9
COM DEV INTL *CDV
3.00
(1.6)
(3.2)
11.1
4.2
EMS TECHNOLOGIES ELMG
25.50
5.6
26.7
26.0
24.1
GARMIN GRMN
57.73
(0.5)
8.2
30.8
6.0
GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
6.95
23.2
45.4
61.6
42.1
GLOBECOM GCOM
5.12
(0.8)
(9.9)
17.4
7.8
HARRIS HRS
40.50
4.7
5.9
11.9
6.7
HONEYWELL HON
36.51
3.3
18.4
25.3
9.2
KVH KVHI
18.60
(9.9)
(34.7)
(33.7)
(32.5)
LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
50.98
(0.5)
4.9
10.5
(0.8)
LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
4.72
21.6
62.8
100.9
66.2
MOTOROLA MOT
16.44
4.5
28.5
19.3
17.4
NERA NERAY
2.32
2.6
9.2
0.4
11.9
ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
13.22
6.1
17.7
36.1
10.0
QUALCOMM QCOM
59.69
1.2
19.2
35.3
10.7
RAYTHEON RTN
31.63
3.6
10.4
12.6
5.3
ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
32.81
8.8
15.4
23.2
9.3
SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
33.01
(0.3)
18.6
(7.7)
20.9
SKY FRAMES SKYU
0.00
(99.7)
(99.9)
(99.0)
TITAN TTN
21.75
(0.4)
0.3
3.8
(0.3)
TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
42.59
6.4
39.9
87.8
14.4
VIASAT VSAT
24.30
6.8
33.2
18.2
27.0
Manufacturers’ Average
100.00
3.5
12.0
18.2
8.8
Nasdaq Composite Index
Nasdaq comp
2,123.95
1.1
10.7
9.5
6.0
SP 500 sp50
1,135.69
0.3
6.3
8.5
2.1
SN Stock Price Average
100.00
5.5
15.8
23.2
16.8

 

Wall Street Analysis

By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities

The year-end subscriber numbers recently reported by XM Satellite Radio [Nasdaq: XMSR] and Sirius Satellite Radio [Nasdaq: SIRI] once again demonstrate that satellite radio is on its way to becoming a mainstay for millions of Americans. XM ended 2003 with 1.361 million subscribers, beating SG Cowen’s estimate of 1.29 million. Sirius closed the year with 261,000 subscribers, far above our forecast of 230,000.

Even more important than the numbers, though, is the change in perception regarding these two companies. First, Sirius managed to turn the corner in the fourth quarter and finally can be viewed as an equal to XM. We recently returned to visit multiple retailers that only three months earlier told us we should choose XM. Each of these retailers now had life-size cutouts of Pamela Anderson decked out in Sirius gear. Each now said Sirius was selling as well as XM. New plug-and-play radios made a difference. However, I think awareness of Sirius is growing and having an effect. Notably, the new Sirius boombox, which was in short supply during the holidays, was not available at any of the stores we visited.

The second change for satellite radio is the increasing perception that it is here to stay. We still occasionally talk to radio broadcasters who deny satellite radio will work. Most others have begun to recognize what we believe strongly – ultimately, most new U.S. vehicles will come with satellite radio as standard equipment.

Aside from the subscriber growth, we also hear renewed commitments of support for satellite radio from General Motors [NYSE: GM]. Based on these reports, we refined our projected subscriber growth for the industry. We now project the industry will reach 29 million subscribers by the end of 2010. That’s a long way from the current 1.6 million. But the pieces are coming together for just that type of phenomenal growth.

The stocks pose a more difficult question. With such confidence already reflected in each of the company’s stock prices – XM has an enterprise value of more than $8 billion and Sirius of more than $3 billion, can these companies continue to generate enough news flow to raise expectations? Stay tuned.

Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at . Readers should assume that SG Cowmen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.

Live chat by BoldChat