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The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By Staff Writer | January 12, 2004

      Week of Jan. 2- 8, 2003
      Percentage Change
      Symbol
      Jan. 8 Price
      One Week
      One Month
      Three Month
      Year to Date
      Operators
      APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
      2.80
      17.6
      8.1
      34.6
      17.6
      ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
      21.05
      10.9
      19.5
      41.3
      10.9
      BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
      55.70
      9.3
      18.9
      34.5
      9.3
      ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
      35.45
      4.3
      7.8
      (12.5)
      4.3
      HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
      17.01
      2.8
      5.5
      13.3
      2.8
      LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
      0.34
      6.3
      4.7
      28.8
      6.3
      NEWS CORP NWS
      36.45
      1.0
      7.8
      7.4
      1.0
      NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
      7.38
      3.1
      2.5
      26.2
      3.1
      PANAMSAT SPOT
      20.95
      (2.8)
      (1.0)
      33.2
      (2.8)
      PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
      0.19
      280.0
      11.8
      2.7
      280.0
      PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
      31.30
      11.5
      66.9
      107.3
      11.5
      SES GLOBAL SESF.LU
      7.80
      (2.5)
      (2.1)
      18.5
      (2.5)
      SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
      3.36
      6.3
      58.5
      79.7
      6.3
      XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
      27.97
      6.4
      21.9
      69.0
      6.4
      Operators’ Average
      100.00
      25.3
      16.5
      34.6
      25.3
      Manufacturers
      ANDREW ANDW
      17.50
      51.0
      59.4
      29.1
      51.0
      BALL BLL
      58.67
      (1.5)
      1.1
      4.2
      (1.5)
      BOEING BA
      42.86
      1.7
      12.8
      18.5
      1.7
      COM DEV INTL CDV.TO
      3.03
      5.2
      (9.6)
      44.3
      5.2
      EMS TECHNOLOGIES ELMG
      24.15
      17.6
      22.3
      38.0
      17.6
      GARMIN LTD. GRMN
      58.04
      6.5
      8.4
      29.3
      6.5
      GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
      5.64
      15.3
      18.5
      2.7
      15.3
      GLOBECOM GCOM
      5.16
      8.6
      (20.6)
      14.9
      8.6
      HARRIS HRS
      38.70
      2.0
      3.5
      7.6
      2.0
      HONEYWELL HON
      35.35
      5.7
      18.1
      29.0
      5.7
      KVH KVHI
      20.64
      (25.1)
      (31.9)
      (28.5)
      (25.1)
      LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
      51.25
      (0.3)
      8.1
      12.0
      (0.3)
      LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
      3.88
      36.6
      27.2
      67.2
      36.6
      MOTOROLA MOT
      15.73
      12.4
      17.8
      11.9
      12.4
      NERA NERAY
      2.11
      1.7
      (2.4)
      (0.4)
      1.7
      ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
      12.46
      3.7
      13.3
      28.9
      3.7
      QUALCOMM QCOM
      58.95
      9.3
      19.1
      34.7
      9.3
      RAYTHEON RTN
      30.53
      1.6
      7.9
      10.0
      1.6
      ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
      30.15
      0.4
      12.3
      16.8
      0.4
      SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
      33.12
      21.3
      22.3
      (3.1)
      21.3
      SKY FRAMES SKYU
      0.00
      (99.0)
      (99.0)
      (99.9)
      (99.0)
      TITAN TTN
      21.83
      0.1
      1.7
      4.2
      0.1
      TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
      40.03
      7.5
      32.8
      59.0
      7.5
      VIASAT VSAT
      22.75
      18.9
      11.4
      7.4
      18.9
      Manufacturers’ Average
      100.00
      4.2
      6.4
      14.1
      4.2
      Nasdaq Composite Index
      S & P 500 COMP
      2,100.25
      4.8
      8.4
      10.1
      4.8
      SN Stock Price Average SP50
      1,131.92
      1.8
      6.6
      8.9
      1.8
      100.00
      12.0
      10.1
      21.6
      12.0

      Wall Street Analysis

      By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities

      Middletown, R.I.-based KVH Industries [Nasdaq: KVH] “pre-announced” its fourth quarter results last week to indicate that it expected a net loss ranging between 11 and 14 cents a share, compared to our estimate of break-even and a Wall Street consensus forecast of positive 2 cents a share. The company does not expect to release its audited fourth quarter and full year results for 2003 until mid-February.

      KVH management explained that military procurement delays for its TACNAV product mainly caused the earnings shortfall. The shortfall stemmed in large part from the slippage of a $2 million contract that the company expected during the quarter.

      Another problem identified by management was that the company shipped only 1,700 of its TracVision A-5 mobile satellite antennas for sport utility vehicles and minivans during the fourth quarter, down from its guidance of 2,000 to 3,000 units and our 2,000 estimate. Component delays prevented the filling of that order as anticipated, management explained. These production problems followed on the heels of the company’s postponed introduction of its TracVision A-5 flagship product until the end of the third quarter last year.

      We expect TracVision sales to be the No. 1 driver of KVH’s stock price and believe the 1,700 unit-sales in the fourth quarter provide limited insight into the product’s ultimate market potential. Unit sales of the product during 2004 should be a much better indication of the likely penetration that TracVision can achieve with the 2 million vehicles using video entertainment systems, once production is running smoothly.

      We expect KVH to provide guidance for 2004 unit sales during its next conference call at the beginning of February. We also expect unit sales for 2004 of 11,000 or an average of 2,750 per quarter. While the fourth quarter shortfall probably will pressure the stock near-term, KVH’s intermediate stock performance is aligned with the sales of its TracVision product. We anticipate a rebound in the stock to coincide with the company’s next conference call in early February.

      Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at [email protected] . Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.

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