The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By | January 12, 2004 | Feature

Week of Jan. 2- 8, 2003
Percentage Change
Symbol
Jan. 8 Price
One Week
One Month
Three Month
Year to Date
Operators
APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
2.80
17.6
8.1
34.6
17.6
ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
21.05
10.9
19.5
41.3
10.9
BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
55.70
9.3
18.9
34.5
9.3
ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
35.45
4.3
7.8
(12.5)
4.3
HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
17.01
2.8
5.5
13.3
2.8
LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
0.34
6.3
4.7
28.8
6.3
NEWS CORP NWS
36.45
1.0
7.8
7.4
1.0
NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
7.38
3.1
2.5
26.2
3.1
PANAMSAT SPOT
20.95
(2.8)
(1.0)
33.2
(2.8)
PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
0.19
280.0
11.8
2.7
280.0
PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
31.30
11.5
66.9
107.3
11.5
SES GLOBAL SESF.LU
7.80
(2.5)
(2.1)
18.5
(2.5)
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
3.36
6.3
58.5
79.7
6.3
XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
27.97
6.4
21.9
69.0
6.4
Operators’ Average
100.00
25.3
16.5
34.6
25.3
Manufacturers
ANDREW ANDW
17.50
51.0
59.4
29.1
51.0
BALL BLL
58.67
(1.5)
1.1
4.2
(1.5)
BOEING BA
42.86
1.7
12.8
18.5
1.7
COM DEV INTL CDV.TO
3.03
5.2
(9.6)
44.3
5.2
EMS TECHNOLOGIES ELMG
24.15
17.6
22.3
38.0
17.6
GARMIN LTD. GRMN
58.04
6.5
8.4
29.3
6.5
GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
5.64
15.3
18.5
2.7
15.3
GLOBECOM GCOM
5.16
8.6
(20.6)
14.9
8.6
HARRIS HRS
38.70
2.0
3.5
7.6
2.0
HONEYWELL HON
35.35
5.7
18.1
29.0
5.7
KVH KVHI
20.64
(25.1)
(31.9)
(28.5)
(25.1)
LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
51.25
(0.3)
8.1
12.0
(0.3)
LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
3.88
36.6
27.2
67.2
36.6
MOTOROLA MOT
15.73
12.4
17.8
11.9
12.4
NERA NERAY
2.11
1.7
(2.4)
(0.4)
1.7
ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
12.46
3.7
13.3
28.9
3.7
QUALCOMM QCOM
58.95
9.3
19.1
34.7
9.3
RAYTHEON RTN
30.53
1.6
7.9
10.0
1.6
ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
30.15
0.4
12.3
16.8
0.4
SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
33.12
21.3
22.3
(3.1)
21.3
SKY FRAMES SKYU
0.00
(99.0)
(99.0)
(99.9)
(99.0)
TITAN TTN
21.83
0.1
1.7
4.2
0.1
TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
40.03
7.5
32.8
59.0
7.5
VIASAT VSAT
22.75
18.9
11.4
7.4
18.9
Manufacturers’ Average
100.00
4.2
6.4
14.1
4.2
Nasdaq Composite Index
S & P 500 COMP
2,100.25
4.8
8.4
10.1
4.8
SN Stock Price Average SP50
1,131.92
1.8
6.6
8.9
1.8
100.00
12.0
10.1
21.6
12.0

Wall Street Analysis

By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities

Middletown, R.I.-based KVH Industries [Nasdaq: KVH] “pre-announced” its fourth quarter results last week to indicate that it expected a net loss ranging between 11 and 14 cents a share, compared to our estimate of break-even and a Wall Street consensus forecast of positive 2 cents a share. The company does not expect to release its audited fourth quarter and full year results for 2003 until mid-February.

KVH management explained that military procurement delays for its TACNAV product mainly caused the earnings shortfall. The shortfall stemmed in large part from the slippage of a $2 million contract that the company expected during the quarter.

Another problem identified by management was that the company shipped only 1,700 of its TracVision A-5 mobile satellite antennas for sport utility vehicles and minivans during the fourth quarter, down from its guidance of 2,000 to 3,000 units and our 2,000 estimate. Component delays prevented the filling of that order as anticipated, management explained. These production problems followed on the heels of the company’s postponed introduction of its TracVision A-5 flagship product until the end of the third quarter last year.

We expect TracVision sales to be the No. 1 driver of KVH’s stock price and believe the 1,700 unit-sales in the fourth quarter provide limited insight into the product’s ultimate market potential. Unit sales of the product during 2004 should be a much better indication of the likely penetration that TracVision can achieve with the 2 million vehicles using video entertainment systems, once production is running smoothly.

We expect KVH to provide guidance for 2004 unit sales during its next conference call at the beginning of February. We also expect unit sales for 2004 of 11,000 or an average of 2,750 per quarter. While the fourth quarter shortfall probably will pressure the stock near-term, KVH’s intermediate stock performance is aligned with the sales of its TracVision product. We anticipate a rebound in the stock to coincide with the company’s next conference call in early February.

Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at tomwatts@sgcowen.com . Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.

Live chat by BoldChat