The Satellite News Financial Ticker
Week of May 30 – June 5, 2003
|
Percentage Change
|
|||||
|
Symbol
|
May 5 Price
|
One Week
|
One Month
|
Three Month
|
Year to Date
|
Operators
|
||||||
APT SATELLITE HLDGS | ATS |
2.03
|
9.7
|
57.4
|
31.8
|
18.0
|
ASIASAT TELECOM | SAT |
16.45
|
(2.4)
|
18.8
|
28.9
|
44.4
|
BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING | BSY |
45.03
|
4.7
|
6.8
|
13.9
|
12.4
|
ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A | DISH |
34.40
|
5.7
|
7.4
|
24.4
|
54.5
|
HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) | GMH |
12.44
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
26.6
|
16.3
|
LORAL SPACE & COMM | LOR |
0.38
|
–
|
26.7
|
22.6
|
(11.6)
|
NEWS CORP | NWS |
31.86
|
3.3
|
11.1
|
29.7
|
21.4
|
NEW SKIES SATELLITES | NSK |
6.05
|
(9.0)
|
18.9
|
40.7
|
45.8
|
PANAMSAT | SPOT |
19.79
|
7.2
|
10.7
|
49.8
|
35.2
|
PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA | PSNRY |
0.09
|
(32.0)
|
54.5
|
(46.9)
|
(43.3)
|
PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS | PGTV |
27.76
|
5.8
|
1.5
|
77.6
|
111.9
|
rSTAR CORP | RSTRC |
0.59
|
–
|
5.4
|
59.5
|
145.8
|
SES GLOBAL | SES.LU |
5.31
|
0.2
|
2.3
|
14.7
|
(17.0)
|
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO | SIRI |
2.06
|
48.2
|
148.2
|
190.1
|
221.9
|
XM SATELLITE RADIO | XMSR |
12.63
|
13.2
|
36.5
|
174.0
|
369.5
|
Operators’ Average |
100.00
|
3.7
|
27.1
|
49.2
|
68.3
|
|
Manufacturers
|
||||||
ANDREW | ANDW |
9.92
|
2.6
|
23.7
|
30.9
|
(3.5)
|
BALL | BLL |
47.76
|
(2.5)
|
(15.3)
|
(10.2)
|
(6.7)
|
BOEING | BA |
33.68
|
10.9
|
17.7
|
22.7
|
2.1
|
COM DEV INTL | CDV |
0.42
|
2.4
|
10.5
|
(22.2)
|
(30.0)
|
EMS TECHNOLOGIES | ELMG |
13.88
|
7.3
|
17.6
|
12.4
|
(10.9)
|
GARMEN LTD. | GRMN |
49.96
|
4.0
|
10.6
|
51.9
|
70.5
|
GILAT SAT NETWORKS | GILTF |
4.01
|
1.3
|
(8.2)
|
(41.0)
|
(48.6)
|
GLOBECOM | GCOM |
3.30
|
8.2
|
13.8
|
6.8
|
(12.0)
|
HARRIS | HRS |
31.25
|
4.1
|
10.7
|
1.0
|
18.8
|
HONEYWELL | HON |
27.48
|
7.4
|
13.6
|
23.8
|
14.5
|
KVH | KVHI |
21.65
|
0.2
|
36.2
|
116.3
|
151.7
|
LOCKHEED MARTIN | LMT |
45.45
|
(3.5)
|
(9.5)
|
(1.4)
|
(21.3)
|
LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES | LU |
2.31
|
1.3
|
24.9
|
46.2
|
83.3
|
MOTOROLA | MOT |
9.17
|
6.6
|
13.9
|
12.5
|
6.0
|
NERA | NERAY |
1.46
|
10.3
|
24.6
|
65.5
|
34.9
|
ORBITAL SCIENCES | ORB |
6.65
|
21.1
|
16.9
|
15.5
|
57.6
|
QUALCOMM | QCOM |
34.90
|
11.2
|
8.7
|
1.3
|
(4.1)
|
RAYTHEON | RTN |
32.11
|
1.2
|
7.5
|
16.6
|
4.4
|
ROCKWELL COLLINS | COL |
23.61
|
5.2
|
10.7
|
22.8
|
1.5
|
SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA | SFA |
21.59
|
9.3
|
32.7
|
71.2
|
82.0
|
SKY FRAMES | SKYU |
2.25
|
39.8
|
80.0
|
28.6
|
(71.9)
|
STM WIRELESS | STMI |
0.02
|
50.0
|
2,900.0
|
(25.0)
|
(92.5)
|
TITAN | TTN |
9.25
|
10.8
|
10.4
|
12.8
|
(11.1)
|
TRIMBLE NAVIGATION | TRMB |
26.90
|
6.3
|
10.5
|
56.9
|
115.4
|
VIASAT | VSAT |
12.95
|
6.7
|
17.1
|
21.6
|
12.2
|
Manufacturers’ Average |
100.00
|
8.9
|
131.2
|
21.5
|
13.7
|
|
Nasdaq Composite Index
|
||||||
S & P 500 | COMP |
1,646.01
|
5.3
|
9.5
|
25.9
|
23.2
|
SN Stock Price Average | SP50 |
990.14
|
3.9
|
6.5
|
20.5
|
12.5
|
100.00
|
6.9
|
92.1
|
31.9
|
34.2
|
Wall Street Analysis
By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities
Both XM Satellite Radio [Nasdaq: XMSR] and Sirius Satellite Radio [Nasdaq: SIRI] have signed a string of deals recently to raise cash beyond what they say they need to fund their business plans. Their stock prices have traded down temporarily on the news, but we believe it’s wise for these early stage companies to have a cash cushion when the capital markets allow it. This cushion could avoid distress later if subscribers come more slowly than expected or if costs rise.
XM last week announced a $125 million bond offering. Sirius tapped the capital markets with a 75-million share secondary offering that is expected to net about $127 million and close June 10. Two weeks earlier, Sirius completed a convertible debt deal for nearly $170 million.
The enterprise value of these companies is now substantial. We calculate $3.6 billion for XM and $2.5 billion for Sirius. On a relative basis, XM represents 60 percent of the combined enterprise value for the two companies, while Sirius comes in at 40 percent. These values reflect investor assumptions that Sirius will increase its market share from its current 27 percent range and penetrate the OEM (original equipment manufacturer) channel.
Are these enterprise values too high? Not based on our analysis. Certainly not if millions of people throughout the United States become paying customers, as expected. We project 8.7 million subscribers for the two companies by year-end 2007. Many investors are expecting more.
Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at [email protected]. Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.