The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By | June 9, 2003 | Feature

Week of May 30 – June 5, 2003
Percentage Change

Symbol
May 5 Price
One Week
One Month
Three Month
Year to Date
Operators
APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
2.03
9.7
57.4
31.8
18.0
ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
16.45
(2.4)
18.8
28.9
44.4
BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
45.03
4.7
6.8
13.9
12.4
ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
34.40
5.7
7.4
24.4
54.5
HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
12.44
0.7
0.2
26.6
16.3
LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
0.38
26.7
22.6
(11.6)
NEWS CORP NWS
31.86
3.3
11.1
29.7
21.4
NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
6.05
(9.0)
18.9
40.7
45.8
PANAMSAT SPOT
19.79
7.2
10.7
49.8
35.2
PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
0.09
(32.0)
54.5
(46.9)
(43.3)
PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
27.76
5.8
1.5
77.6
111.9
rSTAR CORP RSTRC
0.59
5.4
59.5
145.8
SES GLOBAL SES.LU
5.31
0.2
2.3
14.7
(17.0)
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
2.06
48.2
148.2
190.1
221.9
XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
12.63
13.2
36.5
174.0
369.5
Operators’ Average
100.00
3.7
27.1
49.2
68.3
Manufacturers
ANDREW ANDW
9.92
2.6
23.7
30.9
(3.5)
BALL BLL
47.76
(2.5)
(15.3)
(10.2)
(6.7)
BOEING BA
33.68
10.9
17.7
22.7
2.1
COM DEV INTL CDV
0.42
2.4
10.5
(22.2)
(30.0)
EMS TECHNOLOGIES ELMG
13.88
7.3
17.6
12.4
(10.9)
GARMEN LTD. GRMN
49.96
4.0
10.6
51.9
70.5
GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
4.01
1.3
(8.2)
(41.0)
(48.6)
GLOBECOM GCOM
3.30
8.2
13.8
6.8
(12.0)
HARRIS HRS
31.25
4.1
10.7
1.0
18.8
HONEYWELL HON
27.48
7.4
13.6
23.8
14.5
KVH KVHI
21.65
0.2
36.2
116.3
151.7
LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
45.45
(3.5)
(9.5)
(1.4)
(21.3)
LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
2.31
1.3
24.9
46.2
83.3
MOTOROLA MOT
9.17
6.6
13.9
12.5
6.0
NERA NERAY
1.46
10.3
24.6
65.5
34.9
ORBITAL SCIENCES ORB
6.65
21.1
16.9
15.5
57.6
QUALCOMM QCOM
34.90
11.2
8.7
1.3
(4.1)
RAYTHEON RTN
32.11
1.2
7.5
16.6
4.4
ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
23.61
5.2
10.7
22.8
1.5
SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
21.59
9.3
32.7
71.2
82.0
SKY FRAMES SKYU
2.25
39.8
80.0
28.6
(71.9)
STM WIRELESS STMI
0.02
50.0
2,900.0
(25.0)
(92.5)
TITAN TTN
9.25
10.8
10.4
12.8
(11.1)
TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
26.90
6.3
10.5
56.9
115.4
VIASAT VSAT
12.95
6.7
17.1
21.6
12.2
Manufacturers’ Average
100.00
8.9
131.2
21.5
13.7
Nasdaq Composite Index
S & P 500 COMP
1,646.01
5.3
9.5
25.9
23.2
SN Stock Price Average SP50
990.14
3.9
6.5
20.5
12.5
100.00
6.9
92.1
31.9
34.2

Wall Street Analysis

By Tom Watts, SG Cowen Securities

Both XM Satellite Radio [Nasdaq: XMSR] and Sirius Satellite Radio [Nasdaq: SIRI] have signed a string of deals recently to raise cash beyond what they say they need to fund their business plans. Their stock prices have traded down temporarily on the news, but we believe it’s wise for these early stage companies to have a cash cushion when the capital markets allow it. This cushion could avoid distress later if subscribers come more slowly than expected or if costs rise.

XM last week announced a $125 million bond offering. Sirius tapped the capital markets with a 75-million share secondary offering that is expected to net about $127 million and close June 10. Two weeks earlier, Sirius completed a convertible debt deal for nearly $170 million.

The enterprise value of these companies is now substantial. We calculate $3.6 billion for XM and $2.5 billion for Sirius. On a relative basis, XM represents 60 percent of the combined enterprise value for the two companies, while Sirius comes in at 40 percent. These values reflect investor assumptions that Sirius will increase its market share from its current 27 percent range and penetrate the OEM (original equipment manufacturer) channel.

Are these enterprise values too high? Not based on our analysis. Certainly not if millions of people throughout the United States become paying customers, as expected. We project 8.7 million subscribers for the two companies by year-end 2007. Many investors are expecting more.

Tom Watts is a managing director and satellite analyst at SG Cowen Securities. He can be reached by phone at 212/278-4260 or by e-mail at tom.watts@sgcowen.com. Readers should assume that SG Cowen Securities Corp. and/or its affiliates intend to offer services in investment banking to the above referenced companies within the next three months, and to seek compensation for such services.

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