The Satellite News Financial Ticker

By | January 6, 2003 | Feature

Week of Dec. 30 – Jan. 3 2002
Percentage Change

Symbol
Jan. 2 Price
One Week
One Month
Three Month
Year to Date
Operators
APT SATELLITE HLDGS ATS
1.79
9.8
2.3
5.3
4.1
ARCOMS BTRK
0.03
(37.5)
(28.6)
(64.3)
ASIASAT TELECOM SAT
11.70
0.4
(17.9)
(0.8)
2.7
BRITISH SKY BROADCASTING BSY
42.25
5.0
5.6
28.7
5.5
ECHOSTAR COMM -CL A DISH
23.28
3.4
12.6
36.9
4.6
GENERAL ELECTRIC GE
25.48
0.7
(6.3)
2.7
4.6
GILAT COMMUNICATIONS GICOF
0.14
16.7
(17.6)
7.7
(6.7)
GLOBALSTAR TELECOM GSTRF
0.05
(12.3)
(50.0)
(64.3)
(3.8)
HUGHES ELEC (GM -CL H) GMH
11.13
3.1
(5.4)
18.4
4.0
IRIDIUM WORLD COMM IRIDF
0.11
(31.3)
(43.6)
LORAL SPACE & COMM LOR
0.38
(7.3)
(34.5)
40.7
(11.6)
NEWS CORP NWS
27.21
1.6
(4.7)
37.4
3.7
NEW SKIES SATELLITES NSK
4.10
(4.9)
22.4
(6.0)
(1.2)
PANAMSAT SPOT
14.98
1.7
(21.8)
(12.9)
2.3
PASIFIK SATELIT NUSANTARA PSNRY
0.15
100.0
5.3
PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS PGTV
12.55
(3.5)
2.9
(2.7)
(4.2)
SES GLOBAL SES.LU
6.26
(4.4)
(13.5)
21.8
(2.2)
SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO SIRI
0.61
17.3
(28.2)
(35.3)
(4.7)
XM SATELLITE RADIO XMSR
2.67
(4.3)
14.1
(23.3)
(0.7)
Operators Index
100.00
4.5
(10.5)
(2.5)
(0.2)
Manufacturers
ANDREW ANDW
10.65
2.0
(14.5)
60.2
3.6
BALL BLL
52.91
3.5
7.7
9.3
3.4
BOEING BA
33.88
3.8
(0.6)
(1.5)
2.7
COM DEV INTL *CDV
1.11
11.0
(24.5)
14.4
12.1
GILAT SAT NETWORKS GILTF
0.40
(13.0)
(20.0)
2.6
GLOBECOM GCOM
3.75
8.7
11.9
38.9
HARRIS HRS
26.57
4.4
0.5
(20.7)
1.0
HONEYWELL HON
24.98
10.2
(3.3)
14.1
4.1
KVH KVHI
8.88
(0.2)
(0.8)
50.5
3.3
LOCKHEED MARTIN LMT
58.85
3.4
12.3
(6.9)
1.9
LUCENT TECHNOLOGIES LU
1.42
6.0
(24.9)
79.7
12.7
MOTOROLA MOT
9.20
2.8
(21.4)
(9.4)
6.4
NERA NERAY
1.10
1.4
(25.3)
48.2
1.1
NII NORSAT INTL NSATF
0.94
(1.1)
(10.5)
(22.3)
(5.5)
ORBITAL SCIENCES 1 ORB
4.33
(5.0)
(1.6)
33.2
2.6
QUALCOMM QCOM
37.14
(2.4)
(13.0)
29.0
2.1
RAYTHEON RTN
31.58
5.5
6.4
6.9
2.7
ROCKWELL COLLINS COL
23.49
2.5
11.4
4.9
1.0
SCIENTIFIC-ATLANTA SFA
12.58
3.0
(6.7)
3.0
6.1
STM WIRELESS STMI
0.21
(8.7)
(40.8)
(22.2)
5.0
TITAN TTN
10.38
1.0
(12.0)
7.0
(0.2)
TRIMBLE NAVIGATION TRMB
13.09
0.9
(8.8)
45.4
4.8
TRW TRW
51.62
(0.7)
(11.7)
VIASAT VSAT
11.87
(3.3)
(1.5)
83.2
2.9
Manufacturers Index
100.00
2.1
(7.2)
17.2
3.2
Nasdaq Composite Index COMP
1,384.85
1.2
(6.7)
16.6
3.7
S & P 500 SP50
909.03
2.2
(2.7)
9.8
3.3
SN Financial Ticker Index*
100.00
3.1
(8.7)
8.5
1.7

* A composite index; all indices are capitalization-weighted, with a base value of 100 on 1/2/96.

Salomon Smith Barney Analysis

XM Satellite Radio [XMSR] appears to have obtained sufficient funds to operate through cash flow breakeven in late 2004 with a new financing totaling $450 million. The deal includes $200 million in new funds from strategic and financial investors and $250 million in payment deferrals and related credit facilities from General Motors [GM]. XM also is proposing to exchange its $325 million in senior 14 percent debt for $325 million in new 14 percent bonds that will save XM over $150 million in interest expense. However, the bonds will accrete to $475 million in value and include warrants and payment of a cash dividend at maturity.

The financing dilutes the ownership stake of current shareholders by 50 percent with the issuance of new stock and compares favorably with Sirius’ recently proposed recapitalization that dilutes shareholders to 8 percent of their current interest. However, we also note these transactions would leave XM with over $1 billion in convertible preferred equity. This contrasts to Sirius, which is expected to emerge from its restructuring virtually debt free.

The new financing would result in increased investment by several of XM’s strategic investors and important new investors including Hughes Electronics [GMH], The Hearst Corporation, Columbia Capital, AEA Investors, and Columbia. We are also pleased to see increased participation from Honda, whose total interest in the company is expected to rise to 8.3 percent from 2.3 percent. Honda also will assume a seat on the XM board.

We updated our financial model for XM Radio to reflect the company’s proposed financing. The dilution from the XM financing led to a lowering of our price target for the company to $4 from $5. While XM has consistently outperformed Sirius from an operational standpoint, we suspect that Sirius’ favorable capital structure may help it to recapture some lost ground. However, we are just glad to see both companies get financed.

Armand Musey is a satellite communications analyst at Salomon Smith Barney (“SSB”). Part of the information provided herein includes excerpts, abstracts, and other summary material derived from research reports or notes published by Armand Musey as a member of the Firm’s Global Equity Research Department. For a copy of the full research reports or notes or to view the research-report disclosure required by the NYSE and NASD rules relating to analyst independence and conflicts of interests, please visit http://www.ssbaccess.com or contact a SSB Financial Consultant. Valuation methodologies and associated risks pertaining to price targets, as well as other important disclosures, are contained in research reports and notes published on or after July 8. Salomon Smith Barney or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services provided within the last 12 months from XM Satellite Radio Inc..

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